$1/2 PLO: Flopped trips with overs to the board (2 Viewers)

[jbutler]

This game is a rotation with alternating rounds of $5/10/15 limit Tahoe and $1/2 PLO. Depending on the group on a given night, the PLO rounds are occasionally phased out after a while and we play straight Tahoe. I only say that to get across that these guys, though they play PLO regularly, do not have a ton of experience in lots of various situations.

Let's call the villains Larry and Troy. Larry is tight as hell, but isn't a world class player and has a tendency to steam a bit when he's stuck. Troy is a horrible player all around. Both were up significantly prior to this hand, but Larry has given it all back and Troy is down to $500ish on multiple buy-ins totaling at least $1k.

On to the hand. We're playing 6-handed and with 7653ssdd I make it $10 UTG (house rule is that the open in $1/2 PLO can be $10 even if "real" open would be $8). Four callers.

Flop: ($50): 772hh

Blinds check to me and I bet $30. Larry moves in from the button for $145 total. Troy tanks for like 90 seconds and calls, leaving himself just under $350 behind. I cover.

My play?

 

[Trihonda]

Fold

 

[detroitdad]

Fold

What fun is that. Pot <call <fold

 

[bentax1978]

Fold

He's only behind to pockets 2's, and even so, he has 9 outs to the nuts (6,5,3) and he's getting better than 2-1 to call. Could Troy have gone in to the tank for 90 seconds with quad 2's. Maybe, but I don't see myself folding here. Right or wrong, I'm probably putting Troy all in right now in this situation.


edit: Disregard everything above; Multitasking is clearly not my strong suit.

 

[DrStrange]

It doesn't sound like Larry is stuck, he is playing his normal game. While Larry isn't a world class player, I have to assume he isn't moving in with an overpair. (technically Larry can't go all in, a pot sized bet is $5 less - but that isn't the point - I'll just assume Larry had $140 left.) I assume hero is well behind Larry say something like 35-65. Without Troy in the hand, I fold.

Troy makes the calculations more interesting. If Hero can blow Troy off the hand, then he risks $110 to win $475 ( =$140x3 + $55 ) which seems like a reasonable deal. The real reason to go after Troy is he might call with something much worse than Hero, say a flush draw + over pair (or even worse). So I vote the high variance play and raise $350.

I appreciate on a bad day someone starts with pocket twos and the other villain has a better seven. But I can't account for the long delay by Troy being one of those two hands. Lets hunt the big stack and if Hero misses that the consolation prize is a 35% chance at $475 that costs $110 roughly worth $50 in expected value.

DrStrange

 

[ParrotheadMZ]

He's only behind to pockets 2's, and even so, he has 9 outs to the nuts (6,5,3) and he's getting better than 2-1 to call. Could Troy have gone in to the tank for 90 seconds with quad 2's. Maybe, but I don't see myself folding here. Right or wrong, I'm probably putting Troy all in right now in this situation.

Hes also behind against 72

 

[Ronoh]

What fun is that. Pot <call <fold

That means fold too

 

[Ronoh]

He's only behind to pockets 2's, and even so, he has 9 outs to the nuts (6,5,3) and he's getting better than 2-1 to call. Could Troy have gone in to the tank for 90 seconds with quad 2's. Maybe, but I don't see myself folding here. Right or wrong, I'm probably putting Troy all in right now in this situation.

He's behind basically any hand containing the case 7 as well... but I'm not folding either.

 

[detroitdad]

That means fold too

Lol

 

[bentax1978]

He's behind basically any hand containing the case 7 as well... but I'm not folding either.

I shouldn't try to answer these while running your NCAA numbers too

Disregard my previous advice to push all-in.

 

[bentax1978]

On a side note, now might be a good time to suggest a PCF/P* PLO tournament at 21:15 as I'm clearly easy money tonight (y) :thumbsup:

 

[Ronoh]

On a side note, now might be a good time to suggest a PCF/P* PLO tournament at 21:15 as I'm clearly easy money tonight (y) :thumbsup:

New Walking Dead is on

 

[bentax1978]

New Walking Dead is on

And Downton Abbey

Ok, I'll stop thread jacking @jbutler's thread with my bad advice and off-topic pots. Sorry

 

[mipevi]

On the flop I'm leaning towards check/call. As played, I'm not overly worried about Larry. Yes he could have us crushed, but he is short enough to push overpair+fd, and we just need 33% eq vs. him. Troy is a horrible player, but he may well have a hand similar to ours (7 with bad kicker), and have us crushed. He is deep enough to have me worried, so I prefer to slow down and just call. Let's see a turn card in position and re-evaluate.

 

[courage]

vs Larry this is an easy call I think based on stack size and ranges. Troy's flat makes it tough, even donkeys get hands, so it depends what we put him on and if we can get Troy to fold.

Rough numbers due to ties, etc.:

Hero is 22.5% to win vs 22xx (40%) and the case 7 with 2 overs (29.5%). If we credit villains with real hands.

If villains have worse hands, it's still not great, and we're guessing at troy's holdings in order to grab a side pot.

Hero is 43% to win if Larry has deuces full and overs (47%) and troy has an over pair like KK89 (10%) - about the worst he could flat with?

But hero is 27.5% if Larry holds the case 7 hand rainbow with just 2 overs, like 75QT (51.7%) and troy has KK89 (13%).

Can't lie, many times in this spot I've blown up the pot to try to win side pot vs Troy but it seems -EV. Ego will often prohibit Troy from folding and then we're in a bad spot overall. Hero has $40 in pot so far and an edge in the game. Maybe I'm a nit, but find a fold and look for better spot. If Troy had folded I think it's an easy call vs Larry.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Hmmm.........You say Larry tends to steam "a bit when he's stuck". You state he had been up significantly but has "given it all back". Is he stuck, is he even? You said he's "tight as hell" so I'm finding it hard to believe his shove over your bet is a semi-bluff or an overpair. I'd be most concerned about his hand.

So then we move to Troy, who is "horrible all around". On top of the $145 he's just called off, he has another $350. So we think "hey, even if Larry is beating us, we're probably ahead of Troy, so we can make up the difference and turn a profit by getting his $350!"

Well, that's a nice thought, but is it realistic? If we shove, is he calling? If we just call, how likely is he to put more $$$ into the pot if he whiffs the turn? Depending on how truly terrible Troy is, and how likely he is to spew or pay off with an overpair or a flush draw, will determine if I could turn what should be a fold into a call or shove.

 

[Marius L]

This sounds like a pretty bad spot to me, but I guess we have to call.

Larry might push here with some overpairs/flush draws, but obv also with any 7, and we loose to basically all 7s. Troy's flop calling range might be somewhat the same as Larry, or at least pretty loose considering he is a bad player. I think we might certainly be beat a lot here, but sometimes we will be ahead as well. The reason I am calling is because Troy is bad/passive, and check cold-calling the flop, I guess he will also check the turn, with both a random 7 and flushdraw/overpair. This means we might be able to check back the turn, and see the river for free.

Assuming the flop-call will give us both the turn AND the river, I think I am calling here because of our decent odds even if we are behind. We have about 35% to hit on either turn or river, assuming all our cards are live and the other guy does not improve.

This seems like a stretch actually, but since we are getting more than 3-1 on our call and it seems likely we can see both turn and river without paying any more, I guess we just go with it. We are obv betting and potentially trying to get Troy's entire stack if we hit our boat on the turn, as this will be the nuts. I think he will call a decent sized bet with a big portion of his range on the turn, considering his flop play. I would size it fairly small, but still commit him to allin on the river almost regardless. dont want to bet too much and fold out his drawing hands on the turn after we have filled up.

 

[onerand]

I call and evaluate. Feels like larry has a flush draw and troy a better 7, but we are drawing to all nut outs.

 

[jbutler]

I called the flop with the thought that I would almost certainly get a free river if I wanted it.

No more debatable decisions, so I'll just give results.

Turn ($485): 5c

Tony checks, I pot, he thinks for like another 90 seconds and calls. I say, "I have the nuts for now" and he says, "So turn it over then!" really irritably. I turn my hand over to show him the nuts. Larry tables 9972 and Tony tables KK22. So I'm fading four outs.

River ($1185): 6c

Tony stands up and says, "This happens to me every fucking time! I really hope this game isn't fixed or something because that's what it feels like. Every fucking time I get a hand he (pointing at the dealer) fucks me on the river." He's actually yelling by this time and some wiseass actually does correct him that he lost on the turn and river both. He acts like he doesn't hear and continues ranting as he heads to the back with the host to settle up (he plays on credit then pays out at the end of the night).

PLO must be a hellaciously brutal game for someone who feels like getting it in three ways with bottom boat and losing might mean the game is rigged.

 

[courage]

You're fading 6 outs not 4 but NHGG Troy/Tony wtf your name is.

EDIT: Of course you're right, 4 outs... it's one of your more annoying endearing qualities. But c'mon, is the guy's name Troy or Tony?

 

[jbutler]

You're fading 6 outs not 4 but NHGG Troy/Tony wtf your name is.

EDIT: Of course you're right, 4 outs... it's one of your more annoying endearing qualities. But c'mon, is the guy's name Troy or Tony?

Lol, guess I spaced on the pseudonym I'd chosen. I try not to post these guys' real names in case by some one in a million chance they ever find the forum, but I also hate using "villain 1", "villain 2" etc.

EDIT: Another funny thing about Tony/Troy - he's Italian and sometimes wears a hoodie that says, "I'm not angry - I'm Italian!" The sweatshirt is doubly funny because he is angry when he loses and he loses all the time. The needles when he loses it when wearing that sweatshirt are pretty great. "Tony, I can't tell, when I sucked out on you before, were you just Italian?"

 

[stocky]

nevermind. Misread.

 

[bergs]

I play the hand the exact same way that Butler did, except that 80% of the time a K hits the river, 15% of the time a 9 hits, and 5% of the time we inexplicably chop because of a dealer error, or an asteroid hits the casino.

 

[jbutler]

Hero is 43% to win if Larry has deuces full and overs (47%) and troy has an over pair like KK89 (10%) - about the worst he could flat with?

But hero is 27.5% if Larry holds the case 7 hand rainbow with just 2 overs, like 75QT (51.7%) and troy has KK89 (13%).

In the moment, I was thinking, "Okay, let's jam and get Tony/Troy off his hand and then draw against Larry's hand with an extra $145 in the pot," but thought better of it and went with calling in order to (hopefully) get a free look at the river. Given Tony/Troy's call on the turn, it's pretty obvious he wouldn't have folded the flop, so I guess in that respect flatting is better than jamming.

But if the above is right - that i'm 27.5% to win - then I guess it's really a fold since by the time the decision was to me it was (assuming a call by Tony/Troy) either:

(a) call $115 into $370 to see a turn with a good chance at a free river; or
(b) jam for $415 into $770 (the latter number assuming the call by Tony/Troy).

So it's a fold, I guess. Damn I love PLO.

 

[mipevi]

Eh, flatting we have implied odds. Call.

 

[courage]

In the moment, I was thinking, "Okay, let's jam and get Tony/Troy off his hand and then draw against Larry's hand with an extra $145 in the pot," but thought better of it and went with calling in order to (hopefully) get a free look at the river. Given Tony/Troy's call on the turn, it's pretty obvious he wouldn't have folded the flop, so I guess in that respect flatting is better than jamming.

But if the above is right - that i'm 27.5% to win - then I guess it's really a fold since by the time the decision was to me it was (assuming a call by Tony/Troy) either:

(a) call $115 into $370 to see a turn with a good chance at a free river; or
(b) jam for $415 into $770 (the latter number assuming the call by Tony/Troy).

So it's a fold, I guess. Damn I love PLO.

With more details it's interesting, and depends on specifically who holds what.

On the FLOP:
Hero is 37% vs Larry 51.5% and T-man 10.6%. Larry's pair of 99 doesn't help him, if he had say 729Q he'd be 57% and hero 32%.

Hero is only 21% on FLOP If instead Larry had my prior random suggestion of 75TQ, 27.5% and T-man holds his KK22, 44%.

If Larry had overs like 78TQ, it's interesting on flop. He's 39% fav to win vs hero 27% and T-man KK22 34%.

As played on TURN, hero is 89% vs Larry and T-man both at 5.5%.

 

[abby99]

Jack, were you able to come up with ranges for Larry and Tony/Troy based on their pre- and post-flop action?

 

[jbutler]

Jack, were you able to come up with ranges for Larry and Tony/Troy based on their pre- and post-flop action?

Unfortunately, no.

90% of the preflop raises in the PLO round come from me and they will call with as little as one suited ace unless I'm in late position and thus my preflop raise is $16 or $18 over the several inevitable limps. In that case, the calling ranges of these guys would be slightly narrower, but still not by much. I would say they would include any broadway pairs (other cards deemed irrelevant by them) and any semi-rundown. But here, for my $10 raise, they're in with basically anything.

If anyone else ever raises preflop it is 95% that he has KKxx at a minimum.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Larry tables 9972 and Tony tables KK22.

I figured you'd be up against 22 and 72, but that the 72 would have more backup. He had some of the best danglers you could hope for him to have, aside from maybe 44.

I take it that Larry gets himself into tricky/trap hands like this a lot.

 

[jbutler]

I figured you'd be up against 22 and 72, but that the 72 would have more backup. He had some of the best danglers you could hope for him to have, aside from maybe 44.

I take it that Larry gets himself into tricky/trap hands like this a lot.

Yeah, one problem that we didn't account for the in the analysis above is when I call and hit my hand, but have to chop (all or part of) the pot when another guy has a 7 with one or more of my danglers as well.

They both constantly spew money, but unless it's versus me or the only other aggressive player at the table, they usually lose the minimum because no one else makes them commit their stacks.