$1/$2 PLO8: Nut/Third Nut on Turn (1 Viewer)

[Jimulacrum]

Game is $1/$2 PLO8, 9-handed, sitting $500 or $600 effective. Hero has recently scooped a couple large pots and has the biggest stack by a long shot, and very strong table image. Loosey-goosey table, frequent straddles and 6- and 7-way raised pots. You could build a house out of all the dead money that's getting thrown around.

Hero has managed to slip in relatively cheaply with 3s4d5c9s (ugh, I know). We pick up at the flop, which comes 2d4cQh. Pot is $55.

BB checks, Hero checks, preflop aggressor (semi-LAG who is fairly skilled but too loose) bets pot $55, loose donator calls AI for $51, unknown reg calls $55, field folds. It's $55 to Hero to call, with $216 in the pot. PFA and LD both have about $200 behind.

Hero … ?

 

[DrStrange]

So what is Hero hoping for here?

His high hand hopes are mostly catching an ace or a six for the straight. Maybe making trip fours could be good, maybe not. Hero might not even win high catching a runner-runner full house.

Hero is drawing at the third nut low - A3 and A5 beat him. There is no way I'd be happy putting $250 on the line hoping for the third nut low to be good.

An ace is a magic card. I'm going to assume Hero is drawing to three aces and putting the fourth ace in a villain's hand. Call that 7%, less a bit for the times the river beats Hero's high or chops his low. 9% to catch a six for half the pot. (Let's just call it a wash the times Hero loses the high on a bad river vs the times Hero's 3rd nut low is good.) Merge the two and say Hero has 10% equity for the next card.

Hero's direct odds look like 4-1. Hero needs to stack both villains for the implied odds to make this barely good enough.

Too rich for my blood. I fold.

Not thinking too highly of the preflop seeing how Hero has crap for a hand and bad position. Maybe the table is so bad that paying $10 to draw at 3s459s is proper. More likely not.

Waving a magic wand at crap just makes it sparkle. It is still crap, but now it looks good. -=- DrStrange

 

[Jimulacrum]

Not thinking too highly of the preflop seeing how Hero has crap for a hand and bad position. Maybe the table is so bad that paying $10 to draw at 3s459s is proper.

A little of this, and a little of trying to give action for the sake of giving action. The table was seeing a lot of family limp pots and 6- and 7-handed raised pots (not to mention paying off deep post-flop). It was becoming noticeable how much I was folding preflop, so I made it a point to loosen up a bit limping in, and in the process play extra hands with perfect relative position. The preflop aggressor had been setting up sweet plays for me all night because I could count on him to bet so predictably. I could not have asked for a more valuable neighbor. It was like having a god-mode button to my left.

If I remember correctly, I called a $4 straddle expecting to get limped around (which was a fair possibility) or min-raised (also a fair possibility). I believe he raised it to $9, so it was $5 to call into a $50 pot.

It's also possible I was the straddle. I don't remember it 100%. It was one of those tables where it's all splashy for small amounts preflop. That's part of the reason I skipped the preflop action.

 

[bergs]

If I'm playing well I fold. If I'm playing bad I pot to thin the field.

 

[onerand]

I fold. 6 gives you nut high for now, but you will lose the low. Usually not many aces left. Heads up you could gamble.

 

[Ben]

345x hands are entirely reasonable if you're reasonably deep and can get in cheaply as you can freeroll the shit out of people for stacks on certain Axx flops (learned that one the hard way...)

As played it's a fold - it's likely impossible to scoop and we can assume a higher-than-average number of dead aces. I'd for sure get it in with 3456 though.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Okay, clear consensus here is to fold. Ben, your thoughts are the same as mine were at the time, but I came out of it with the looser decision.

I can't overemphasize how loose this table is post-flop. People are clashing for stacks left and right with outlandish hands. I think I may have slipped into their pit of crazy a little on this hand.

Hero makes the inadvisable $55 call. Pot is now $271. Turn comes 6h, putting 2d4cQh6h on board. Hero is first to act.

Hero … ?

 

[jbutler]

Well the name of the game now is keeping it multiway to the river to get some money in there to fund the very likely chop. Are these guys typically loose aggressive or loose passive? If you bet here will they 3-bet with the bare nut low? If no, bet $100ish. To salvage playing these types of hands you have to get multiple callers here imo.

I do think the flop is a fold, but no judgment as I play in a regular PLO game that has similarly horrid players and I'm often in spots similar to yours here. As Berg said, when I'm playing well I fold pre, but when I get sucked into the black hole of donkdom, I try to remember how to maximize the value of my terrible play.

 

[DrStrange]

Both villains are playing less than pot sized stacks. I see no reason try being tricky/trappy - just bet. I think the two step milking bet is best, so $100 it is.

Hero isn't folding no matter what the river brings. Not that he likes a flushing or paired board, but vs this type of villain Hero shouldn't be looking for thin folds.

DrStrange

 

[Jimulacrum]

Here's some more information about the players to help with the turn decision.

To my left: Young, energetic guy who bets almost anything when checked to, but is more apt to do it when in position, and he's only middle position now. He makes all kinds of ballsy bets and has been chasing his losses all night. I could see him betting here with the bare nut low or less, since no one else has shown initiative. However, he may be wary in this spot because I am still involved in the pot, and I've been abusing his over-aggressive tendencies all night.

Unknown reg is unknown. He's a new face in the past half-hour, and I haven't seen anything noteworthy from him yet. He doesn't seem especially skilled, but nothing to indicate he's a donkey either. Lots of passive preflop play, but that's been typical of the whole table.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Okay, moving along.

Hero checks with the expectation that preflop aggressor will bet the field around to him, but PFA checks. Unknown reg shoves all-in for $214. Action is on hero, with only PFA left to act afterward. PFA barely covers unknown reg's bet. Pot is $485.

Hero … ?

 

[Rhodeman77]

Flat call every time hoping to bring PFA along. Like it was said earlier you need this multi-way since it will likely chop.

 

[bergs]

They say it can be correct to fold the nuts in Omaha. I've never done it. This might be the spot where you're supposed you. I wouldn't even know how.


#FishWasHere
#NotTheBand

 

[Jimulacrum]

Hero calls for $214. Preflop aggressor overcalls for $214. The river is a brick (10 of spades or something).

Preflop aggressor turns up top set with no other meaningful cards. Unknown reg turns up A356 for nut/nut, and I get quartered. Loose donator mucks and leaves.

Net loss: about $100. This was the best outcome I could've had here, short of spiking the ace on the end to get a full half of the pot.

Lesson: Avoid meh draws in big multi-way pots where you're likely to be vying for only half the pot. Even in a very weak field, it does no good to play 345-type hands if you ride them all the way to the end when they stand to make duplicated or second-best hands.