$1/3 NLHE: Maximizing fold equity deep (1 Viewer)

[jbutler]

My second session at a new game. Not a single person who played the game during my previous session is here, so all new players. Not surprisingly, game plays massively different. Many people buying in deep (it's uncapped) and lots of big straddles and 3-bets preflop.

Relevant villain is a unknown to me. He sat two orbits prior and bought for $500. No meaningful hands. He's folded a bunch, raised and took blinds a couple times, and called and donked the flop to take down a pot another time. He has seen me play one pot where I called a preflop raise, checked the flop back and called turn and river and lost. Not a big pot and I don't know if he was watching, but it happened while he was there.

I pick up AKdd UTG+1 (full 9-handed game) and make it $20 over a $6 button straddle. Folds to villain and he makes it $75. Folds back to me and I call. Villain has about $550 and I cover.

Flop ($155 after rake): 2d4d5x

My play?

 

[Ben]

Czech jam.

 

[Mental Nomad]

Equity-wise, you're ahead of any pair except aces or a set. (You're actually ahead of kings.) Obv., ahead of any non-pair holding likely to raise pre. Not sure you should be focused on fold equity.

(Also ahead of 76s and 65s.)

Not enough info to guess if they were just trying to buy position with an inferior hand, like 55, and got lucky... if one can ever guess that. Can't see two pair after the raise pre, either.

I'm completely torn on the right play. Subbed to watch responses.

 

[MacGrad]

Since you mentioned it in your intro, what was your hand that the villain saw you play -- was it a missed draw, or did you have a hand that was beaten?

I'm thinking about mixing it up a touch, just in case he was watching but isn't a "higher level" thinker:

I think I'm betting here -- somewhere between $120 and $140. Represent a middle / high pair that was higher than the board, but isn't premium (88 to JJ). If you check / call, there's a good chance you won't get paid off if the 3rd diamond or an Ace or King shows on the turn.

(Future rounds: checking a 3rd diamond or ace on the turn; river strategy to be determined.)

 

[Rhodeman77]

I like a donk bet of about $100 and shove if raised.

 

[Esection]

some options to think about on the flop:

- donk-lead for $130. if he calls, allows you to set up a PSB jam on the turn. if he raises, call.
- c/r flop. i really like this because of effective stack depth. if he cbets around 1/2 - 2/3 pot ($80-100) and you c/r to 3x ($240-$300), that leaves him with $250 to $310 left on top of your raise. forces him to make the decision to play for stacks.

 

[DrStrange]

Not quite sure why Hero wants fold equity. As noted previously, Hero is ahead of anything but sets and pocket aces (neither of which is likely to be folding.)

Hero has an SPR roughly of three. Hero could jam it all-in as an oversized bet or plan on a two step sequence to bet it all, something like $125 now and $350 on the turn.

 

[trever]

I'd bet 125 and shove the turn.
From a "maximize fold equity" perspective? I don't think you've got much against any hand that you want to fold. Check-shove might be more likely to get a fold than bet-bet; but I think that the first screams "big draw" and he'll probably call because "pot odds" and the second screams "big pair" and he'll call with his pair hoping it's good.

edit- noticed someone mentioned open-shove earlier, if you want to maximize fold equity, do that

 

[jbutler]

Since you mentioned it in your intro, what was your hand that the villain saw you play -- was it a missed draw, or did you have a hand that was beaten?

I lost and since I called the river I didn't show the hand so he didn't see.

 

[MacGrad]

I lost and since I called the river I didn't show the hand so he didn't see.

Thanks for the clarification!

My strategy doesn't change -- still betting the flop, representing a middle pair that's trying to price out flush draws.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Check jam, run it twice, and reload when his black queens fade everything on both runouts.

 

[jbutler]

Not quite sure why Hero wants fold equity.

In a way that's part of my question. I could shoot for getting him to fold away his 40% equity now or I could maybe shoot for getting him to call a bet and then fold his equity away on the turn after we get the pot a little bigger.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Check with the intention of raising all-in. This way you win no matter what happens. If Villain c-bets light, he folds and you get an extra bet where he wouldn't call otherwise. If he checks behind, you get a free card to your monstrous draw. If he calls, you have a lot of definite outs and may even be a favorite.

Yes, may be ahead of a lot of hands, but merely being ahead doesn't mean you don't want fold equity to be part of your EV. You don't automatically want action all the time when you're ahead, especially in a 3-bet pot.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Does this game allow running it more than once? And if so, do you know if Villain would want to? Would you want to if asked?

 

[MacGrad]

Does this game allow running it more than once? And if so, do you know if Villain would want to? Would you want to if asked?

There may be something I'm missing, but wouldn't offering to run it twice minimize the probability of a Villain fold?

 

[Rhodeman77]

There may be something I'm missing, but wouldn't offering to run it twice minimize the probability of a Villain fold?

It normally isn't asked for until all the money is in, but knowing ahead of time of it is an option/likely to happen or not is important to know if trying to figure out getting villain to fold.

Yes, if villain has a big PP and thinks they may run it twice is more likely to get it all in on the flop figuring he is against a drawing hand.

 

[jbutler]

Does this game allow running it more than once? And if so, do you know if Villain would want to? Would you want to if asked?

Yeah they do. No idea about this guy in particular. I would prefer to run it more than once if we got it in.

 

[onerand]

One more for check jam. Stacks are right. Give villain chance to bluff flop, but he is not folding a pocket pair.