10NL ACR Blitz: Thoughts on this Bluff? (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

CO RFI 2.5BB and Hero 3! with 56s.

V 41 to 25BB. Hero calls.

V X which I think is really strange in a 4! pot. So Hero bets 1/2 pot with air and V calls. My gut says he has AK and missed with this action.

Turn is a Q and V X again and Hero jams. I think the 2 X means that he is terribly capped and I am at the bottom of my range so jamming is my only option here.
I lose to every hand in his range and as he is capped this line will put huge pressure on his medium strangth hands.
Thoughts?

 

[Coyote]

If he indeed has AK, he isn't going anywhere, at low stakes.
He is gambling a Big Mac meal, waiting for one of the four 10s
Edit: And if it's AK of diamonds, he has every right to "gamble".

 

[dmoney]

I think the 2 X means that he is terribly capped and I am at the bottom of my range so jamming is my only option here.
I lose to every hand in his range and as he is capped this line will put huge pressure on his medium strangth hands.
Thoughts?

Without looking at results, I think you have assessed the situation correctly. Thinking (perhaps, overthinking?) players are probably more likely to fold, imo.

A thought I had is that the profitability of this play/line/scenario is really dependent on the lineup or player pool…it’s a better play against stronger players than weaker ones. I’d be happy to learn from better players on this opinion, though.

 

[Senzrock]

Generally I like the thought process but my big question is - what is villain calling half pot on the J33 board with? AK doesn’t sound too likely unless he has the backdoor suits. If we want him to fold AK on the flop (but he doesn’t), we probably aren’t going to have him fold it on the turn when he kicks up more equity. Also he obviously has all JJ + QQ and maybe even QJs in range. Love the preflop action + love the flop bet. Turn bet less of a fan, but hopefully he is able to fold the TT here or something.

 

[boltonguy]

Honestly I kinda have a hard time believing that he has JJ. He could be trapping which I think is rare, so I think both JJ and QQ bet flop with high frequency. He 4! and I called which generally should take AA/KK out of my range (as those hands should 5! with high frequency IMHO) so he should be ahead with both hands and I think would be betting flop. I do think it unlikely that QJs 4! pre at least in this pool as it can be easily dominated when making top pair by my AQ/AJ.

 

[Senzrock]

Honestly I kinda have a hard time believing that he has JJ. He could be trapping which I think is rare, so I think both JJ and QQ bet flop with high frequency. He 4! and I called which generally should take AA/KK out of my range (as those hands should 5! with high frequency IMHO) so he should be ahead with both hands and I think would be betting flop. I do think it unlikely that QJs 4! pre at least in this pool as it can be easily dominated when making top pair by my AQ/AJ.

So what range are you putting him on then? Sounds like just AK exactly? Seems like all pairs TT+ and AKs+ would be in range?

 

[Legend5555]

Not sure how I feel about this hand. I get that you are getting a great price IP pre against a wider than normal range, but at your stack size I think the only thing you are hoping for in terms of being able to bluff post flop is if he has AK specifically. If he has KK or AA and folds post on J and Q high boards, then sure, it's great. But in general, that doesn't strike me as sound play from the villain. Don't get me wrong, I like the 3! at some frequency with this type of hand. But I'd be tempted at an SPR of 2 to just fold pre to the 4! since I likely won't be able to use all 3 streets to apply pressure.

I kind of feel like the stars just aligned on this hand for your bluff to work. How often is a 4 betting villain going to check this dry a flop? It's pretty much a bet 100% spot, no? And the only value you can really have here is QQ-AA, isn't it? Are you betting JJ here for half pot on the dryest board on the planet when your opponent's range is basically 99+, AK, and some Ax and Broadway bluffs? It's weird though, because there are no real bluffs here either.

Once you started the bluff though, you pretty much have to see it through as you only have 6 high. The whole situation just seems unnecessary and quite lucky for you.

 

[boltonguy]

I agree that for V it is a 100% cbet spot. This is why i decided to run this bluff. I take your point about not being deep enough to call the 4!; that is a good point. Appreciate the feedback.

 

[Senzrock]

So what range are you putting him on then? Sounds like just AK exactly? Seems like all pairs TT+ and AKs+ would be in range?

Still trying to understand how you are ranging villain here? You seem to on the one hand say that villain's hand should be quite strong since he 4bets but then on the other hand you are saying that you are trying to get "him off medium strength hands" - so I'm just trying to understand what you are saying with those two things?

 

[Eriks]

I like the 3b in position vs a somewhat tight player, but for the same reason I like a fold to the 4b being only 125bbs deep.

 

[Legend5555]

Still trying to understand how you are ranging villain here? You seem to on the one hand say that villain's hand should be quite strong since he 4bets but then on the other hand you are saying that you are trying to get "him off medium strength hands" - so I'm just trying to understand what you are saying with those two things?

If I had to range the villain using normal thinking, I'd say it's AQs+, AK, 99+, AWs, suited broadways. And there is a lot there that isn't 4 betting all that often. So I think the main hands that aren't just partials are AQs, AK, JJ+, A5s. So from HERO pov, us betting here basically represents QQ+ as the value hands. And I'm not even sure what we have as bluffs here. Of course, we shouldn't ever be getting checked to either.

The whole situation is weird. HERO has basically played this like AA. Except the flop bet seems too large because unless villain is checking JJ, we need to extract value for stuff like TT, AK, and give rope to any hand that might want to go bananas. Betting half pot just makes villain know we are getting the money in on the turn most of the time. I guess you need to find some bluffs here. Not sure what those would be though.

Obviously this is just looking at it from a theoretical pov. If villain is just weak here when he checks in 4! pots, then your actual hand probably doesn't matter much.