25NL: Do you call this river jam with AA? (2 Viewers)

[boltonguy]

So one key element to moving my win rate in the right direction generally at 25NL Zone has been not calling jams without the nuts. 90% of the time they have it and getting it right the 10% of the time that I win isnt offset by the 90% of the time that I would lose.

I have also spent time with Snowie and GTO+ looking for river jam bluff combos and comparing those hands to the action (like if V has a busted FD would he play pre, flop & turn as played)? However with 25NL zone bluffing is often done with air so this isnt always the most useful analysis to bring to that specific game/player pool.

So in this hand, do you call this river jam? 25NL fast fold, no HUDs, no reads.

Folds to CO who RFI 3BB (standard) and Hero 3! to a hair over 3x with AA on BN. Blinds fold and V calls.

Flop comes low and connected, V X and hero bets about 1/3 pot and V calls.
IMHO this flop is better for V's calling range as he has all the sets here so I dont want to go too big.
I dont think V has too many draws here except 88/JJ so no need to bet larger to deny equity.

Turn pairs the board and puts a FD out there and V leads for about 1/3 pot.
I think this takes 99/TT out of V's range as he just boated up and would want me to continue betting and possibly X/R.
I dont see V calling the 3! pre OOP with 7x so it's not like he just hit trips and is afraid of the FD.
Strange lead given the configuration and action so far but with a good hand I call. The lead doesnt look particularly strong IMHO.

River is an 8 and V jams. Do you call or fold here and why?

 

[boltonguy]

Interesting to see the combos that the solver leads turn here based on pre-flop 3! calling range I have assigned:
99 for value balanced by ATs/KQs/KJs/KTs all spade draws as semi-bluffs and AQo with As for a semi-bluff with even less equity.
I would add (when looking at what combos solver jams) that V is also donking the suited broadway non-spades here at frequencies of 1.34% for diamonds and 0.53% for hearts.

 

[boltonguy]

And presumably given the number of bluffs in V's raising range, AA raises here a whopping 75% of the time mostly with combos including As.
I really didnt consider V donk leading with a FD - I just dont see that in a 3! pot in this game.

 

[boltonguy]

So we see the solver jamming river with 99 for value balanced by three combos of KQs.

 

[justsomedude]

Given the preflop action I would call that jam... if he's got the Ts or 9s so be it.

If he went full retard with 7s or 7,9 - whatever, not much you can do. And he's not betting like he has quads.

I just don't see how I could fold with V calling your 10xBB raise pre. He's playing like he's got a strong over pair. I put him on JJs, QQs, or KKs, or some wonky AQ spade draw that didn't get there, so he's trying to buy is way out.

But the JJs do give him a straight... which is stomach churning. If he lucked out on that river and you're confident he's got the Js or AJ, I could see justifying a fold.

That being said I would say, "I'll pay to see your Jacks," call, and accept the outcome of my decision.

 

[Marc Hedrick]

I'm folding here.

The donk turn to set up a 1:1 SPR river jam is concerning. As you mentioned, what bluffs does villain have here that are taking this line?

It feels to me as if villain wanted to make sure turn didn't check through so he can jam river.

 

[boltonguy]

Anyone else have thoughts here? @Legend5555 @grebe @JustinInMN

 

[Bad Toad]

Fold and don’t look back. He made the straight with something, maybe 66. AA is pretty, but easily cracked on a board like that.

 

[Legend5555]

The 7 pairing was good for you. But villain can have all the sets, 7c8c maybe, and JJ. All of which might play it this way. The lead on turn is a little weird and says to me he is either terrible, or knows this card is bad for your range as you can't have any 7 and maybe don't have 100% of 99. I'm leaning to the latter though because his sizing sets up the river shove.

So we have a couple choices:

1. It's micros and not enough people bluff. He can have way more nut hands than you. Fold.

2. Look at it from a purely MDF POV. If he is bluffing with the correct frequency. Then you need to call with the top 50% of your range (pot / pot+bet).

 

[CDC]

His turn bet might be a stop bet for his straight draw and he hits his full at the river (I know cannot narrow down to 1 hand but need to look at his range, can't help my gut feel)

 

[JustinInMN]

I think there are many more Jx combos in Villain's range than have already been mentioned. I expect villain is opening the cutoff with at least all AJ, KJ, QJ hands and maybe even as weak as JTs and J9s.

Point is there is plenty of straights villain can have easily.

Now that said @Legend5555 is giving you the right analysis of what to do on the river. If he isn't bluffing frequently, this is an easy fold. If he is bluffing optimally, then you have to consider a bluff catch.

But again, this is zoom, so no individual reads, just a "room read" is available to you. Far less reliable, but the best you can do.

As the 3-better pre this board arguably puts you at a range disadvantage. You can have TT and maybe 99 in your range, but so can villain. Villain can have many more straights.

I probably would fold unless river bluffs are frequent. But I don't assume your average zoom player at this stake is willing to bluff into a four straight too often

 

[Zr1]

Fold. Think of what he thinks you have. Unless he has the nuts or close to it he has to be scared that you have. At these stakes 9/10 times he has the better hand here. Abc poker. Even at higher stakes with better players who might have the ability and the balls to think they can force you off your hand, your losing most of the time of you call here

 

[boltonguy]

So I absolutely agree with everyone here who said to generally fold in this spot. At 25NL Zone they have it 99% of the time that they jam river.
If V had just called turn or X/R turn and jammed river, I definitely would have folded to this sequence of actions.
However the lead on the 7 really got me - it pairs the board and brings a FD; I just couldnt see him donk leading turn with anything that would beat my hand on the river.

77 he is definitely not leading, looking for a fold IMHO. 77 wants more money to go in, so maybe X/R turn.
If he did have 66, JJ or JXs I dont see the donk - why not X/R or X/C? I dont see much semi-bluffing in 3! pots especially on the turn.
Why not X/R flop with those same hands? Why pass on a flop raise to donk now on the 7? Other than 77 I dont see him calling the 3! pre with many 7x combos. Maybe 67s/78s at low freq but those hands shouldnt be calling here OOP IMHO. Even then with 7x why lead instead of X/R? With all of my 3! combos he is that afraid of the FD that he needs to lead so it doesnt get X through? I think he's losing value leading 7x here. Odds of me having spades * odds of a spade coming on the river are low enough that he should X to X/R and then jam river (if I call or X behind).

The turn donk seemed spewy and didnt make sense and so for that reason, and that reason alone, I sigh called ... and got lucky.