Another late stage tourney - calling a shove with A 10 (2 Viewers)

[Chris Flynn]

Another situation from a couple days ago:

Down to the final 5 of a 3 table tourney
I'm the chip leader with about 15 big blinds - behind me is very close behind me and the remaining 3 players are well behind. 2nd player shoved.

If I call and win I'm in the driver seat for the win. If I lose I'm likely going to finish 5th.
I call with A 10 offsuit. Villain turns over KQ suited.
Board produces a K so l lose the hand and ultimately finish 5th.

It was a hand that I could have easily folded and picked a better spot for the next 1.5 orbits.

Was it a good call or should I have folded and waited it out to let the shorter stacks knock each other out?

Villain was under the gun BTW...
I was the small blind

 

[JMC9389]

Eh, with 15 BB's as the chip lead, anyone 8-10ish big blinds or less is going to be looking to get it in with any ace, two face cards, or pair.

You got it in good, but as the high stack, getting it in there with A 10 is just a bit thin for me.

 

[Chris Flynn]

Eh, with 15 BB's as the chip lead, anyone 8-10ish big blinds or less is going to be looking to get it in with any ace, two face cards, or pair.

You got it in good, but as the high stack, getting it in there with A 10 is just a bit thin for me.

Thanks - thought possibly he may have just wanted to steal the blinds and I was the only one at the table in much of a position to call the bet

 

[umbkcshah]

If you have 15 BB - I would imagine it's a fold to 2nd in chips. I mean everyone has to be really short.

Also, villain being UTG puts his range ahead imo. Not terrible, but not necessary. I guess it also depends on how things have been going. The tournament is in push/fold mostly.

 

[MichaelBubly]

Yeah. I actually had basically this exact hand and situation last weekend. Final 4. I'm chip leader, but everyone is pretty close so losing a flip will crush me. Blinds are high.
I probably have 10 BBs. Cutoff jams. He's been jamming basically everything decent for 3 orbits so his range is quite a bit wider than most in this spot. I'm in the small blind with KQ suited. I jam behind.

Villian has A10 off.

Flop comes Queen high. Turn clean. River Ace.

Ended up with 0.75 BB left afterwards.

I think I would probably fold A10 offsuit in your situation. Try to find a better spot or let 1-2 bust. 2nd in chips jamming with that many people left, his range is probably a lot of suited Aces or Kings on the low end. You are at best flipping with a slight edge.

 

[Legend5555]

I'd need to know the exact stacks and and positions of all those stacks to give my advice.

 

[bernielomax]

Being chip leader and the fact that there are 3 players well behind in stack size, I probably would have picked a better spot.

That said, you got your money in with the best hand, I wouldn't loose to much sleep over this one.

 

[Marc Hedrick]

I'm in the small blind with KQ suited. I jam behind.

Villian has A10 off.

I think I would probably fold A10 offsuit in your situation. Try to find a better spot or let 1-2 bust. 2nd in chips jamming with that many people left, his range is probably a lot of suited Aces or Kings on the low end. You are at best flipping with a slight edge.

You would rejam KQ but fold A10? I'm not following the logic here.

I think this is a close spot. In theory, you're probably supposed to snap call. But IMO it is super player dependent. There are a lot of players I would fold A10 off with as the chip leader in this spot.

 

[Legend5555]

I also need to know the payout structure.

 

[upNdown]

It’s hard to answer without knowing exact stacks and payout structure. Absent ICM considerations, it’s probably an easy call according to the charts. But I don’t think most people are jamming as broadly as the charts would suggest, in this position. I’d guess you’re behind most of what your average player is jamming with here.

On the other hand, if I’m short enough, I’ll often jam any paint UTG - it just makes a lot more sense than waiting to pay the bb and hoping for the best.

So there are a lot of factors to consider.
In a vacuum, with the info you’ve given us, I’m probably not calling with A10. But it’s probably not the worst call in the world either.

 

[200 Motels]

Is this a fair range to assign the UTG shove?

55+,A2s+,KJs+,A9o+

If so, you're 43.5% to win with ATo.

Generally in tournaments where you're on the bubble or ITM, especially with a smallish field where there are likely only maybe 5 payouts, you need a better hand than you normally would have, say if it was a cash game, since your tournament life has so much more value. Jonathan Little describes it as a 'risk premium'.

So say if you do put the villain on 55+,A2s+,KJs+,A9o+, and you have AJs instead, you'd be a 50/50 flip here, but you would want to tighten up your calling range to account for the 'risk premium'. That is, if the payout jumps or bubble are a factor here.

Same deal when deciding when to shove in a similar spot. You'd want a better hand than you normally would show up with here say if there were no pay jumps to consider. It's entirely possible that I am misunderstanding this concept.

Payouts are definitely a big factor in deciding this.

 

[MichaelBubly]

You would rejam KQ but fold A10? I'm not following the logic here.

I think this is a close spot. In theory, you're probably supposed to snap call. But IMO it is super player dependent. There are a lot of players I would fold A10 off with as the chip leader in this spot.

The spot I called KQ everyone was sitting around 7-10 BB. Blinds going up shortly which would half that number. I covered and player that jammed had been jamming about 40% of hands. I put my hand above his range and called.


Without knowing the player, it seems with 5 left playing less shallow the opponent would likely be shoving a smaller range and putting us behind a decent amount. Maybe ICM for optimal play suggests a call, but a lot of home players probably aren't shoving that wide in the final 5 with big pay jumps.

Tough to say. That's my logic on this though. I don't think a call here is bad, but I'm probably going to fold and hope to blind out a player. We were late into final 4 and I had chipped down considerably with the blinds so I took my chance to basically win with what I felt was likely a flip in my favour.

 

[JustinInMN]

I'm the chip leader with about 15 big blinds - behind me is very close behind me and the remaining 3 players

Yikes, the tournament is really shallow at this point. I would like "very close behind me" defined. How may BB were you left with after losing? Also I think the payouts are relevant. Are the top 5 in the money? What's are the next jumps?

It was a hand that I could have easily folded and picked a better spot for the next 1.5 orbits.

I really wouldn't count on getting better than ATo in that time. 1.5 orbits is really 7-8 hands. Your expectation to be dealt a pair or Ax in the next hand roughly 1/5. So I would assume it's about even money to be dealt that in the next five hands. Certainly lower if you want to discard say A7 and under. It's certainly no guarantee of getting anything better than AT in the next two orbits for sure.

That said, "a better spot" could mean avoiding the second chip leader and hoping to have this race with a short stack.

Villain was under the gun BTW...
I was the small blind

This is the one argument I could make for folding. Villain is going to lose at least 1.5BB in the next two hands while we don't have to play.

I think it's close and not to be too results oriented you got it in with the best hand. The blinds are just so high at this point if the chip leader is under 20BB, it's really hard to fault going with AT in a 5-handed game. It's going to come down to luck sooner or later, and the longer you wait, the less you stand to gain as you post blinds.

That said, second chip leader utg shove of whatever "close behind 15BB" is, maybe we give this player some credit and KQ is probably the worst hand he would have in this spot.

 

[MrCatPants]

Is this a fair range to assign the UTG shove?

55+,A2s+,KJs+,A9o+

If so, you're 43.5% to win with ATo.

Generally in tournaments where you're on the bubble or ITM, especially with a smallish field where there are likely only maybe 5 payouts, you need a better hand than you normally would have, say if it was a cash game, since your tournament life has so much more value. Jonathan Little describes it as a 'risk premium'.

So say if you do put the villain on 55+,A2s+,KJs+,A9o+, and you have AJs instead, you'd be a 50/50 flip here, but you would want to tighten up your calling range to account for the 'risk premium'. That is, if the payout jumps or bubble are a factor here.

Same deal when deciding when to shove in a similar spot. You'd want a better hand than you normally would show up with here say if there were no pay jumps to consider. It's entirely possible that I am misunderstanding this concept.

Payouts are definitely a big factor in deciding this.

Really player dependent range here I would think. I know decent players who this action UTG is more 88+, A9s+, KJs+, AJo+ so it may be a little tighter.

Also, hero isn't closing the action here. Gives further reason to find a fold against the right player.

To me it's really a player read. Looser player I call, tighter or even moderately tight player I find a fold.

 

[NeutronHim]

In general, these ft spots are purely player dependent. I don't play tourneys much, but back when I did I knew you wanna have some equities precomputed so you know what to do when the guy who's vpiped 7% all tournament starts shipping 30% from the button 4 handed. You figure out his range, then mostly just figure out if you want to take this spot.

Definitely leaning fold though. The loosest utg ship range I can imagine here is A2s+ 87s+ all suited face cards all pairs Ajo+, and ato has 45% against that

The kinda loose ft people are shipping a range that has about 58% against you. If you find yourself with ats they have 55, and ajs is a 48-52 dog. Against this very loose utg range, weakest call I'm finding is AQs+ 88+. Your high aces aren't that good, because you are basically always flipping.

Once he starts shipping any ace, then ATss and 66 are probably good enough to call (they have more than my cutoff of 54%.) But while ft spots are quite player dependent, I think this one is just a get outta there no matter what. If he starts shipping more, then his range changes a bit and now more things are calls, but you want to witness him shipping things more frequently before you go for the call

 

[NeutronHim]

Oops I did not realize how old this thread was

 

[Mojo1312]

If you have 15 BB - I would imagine it's a fold to 2nd in chips. I mean everyone has to be really short.

Also, villain being UTG puts his range ahead imo. Not terrible, but not necessary. I guess it also depends on how things have been going. The tournament is in push/fold mostly.

^^This. There are pay-out implications that we also need to consider here.