Calculting outs for a boat after flopping a set? (1 Viewer)

[mummel]

Tri's post got me thinking. Say I have

And the flop comes in with

And there is $100 in the pot. What size bet and above should I fold to?

I have 7 outs correct? Using rough rule of 4 = 28% breakeven %.

So is it accurate that I should fold to any bets above say $25-$30? Is it wise to call say a $20 bet?

What if I was on the button. Do you just check or bet and if betting, how much? TY.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

So there are so many more variable in play than what you have mentioned. First of all, you haven't mentioned effective stack sizes (how much each player has behind). Second, you aren't taking into account ranges (you may be way ahead against an ace or two pair, or you may be way behind against a higher set). But to answer your question, assuming your opponent flopped a flush and all your boat outs are live, you have seven outs on the turn and ten outs on the river to hit a boat (assuming you missed boating on the turn). You have about a 34% chance to boat up (if he has a straight flush redraw you could boat up and still lose). If there is an all-in, and you KNOW the guy has a flush, if he makes a pot size bet, you are getting the right odds to call. (2-1 odds, or 33% which is roughly your odds to boat up).

 

[jbutler]

Read this and then come back to this thread.

 

[mummel]

If there is an all-in, and you KNOW the guy has a flush, if he makes a pot size bet, you are getting the right odds to call. (2-1 odds, or 33% which is roughly your odds to boat up).

Ah of course. See man, my math! So yeah, $100 pot, if he bets $100 with his flush all in, then breakeven % is 25%, and I have a ~28% chance of hitting my boat, so its a close call but a go.

But just looking at the board, my gut says run for the hills.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Ok now I know you're trolling me. I just want to know who's alt account this is, and why do you have so much free time to make up 2356 mind-numbing posts.

 

[bentax1978]

What was the preflop action like? Any chance your opponent has AA or KK? If so, you're down to one lonely duck.

Or was his strength preflop AK, not AA/KK, and he just flopped top two and you're actually way ahead and just need to dodge four outs twice.

Poker is hard.

 

[Mental Nomad]

... then breakeven % is 25%, and I have a ~28% chance of hitting my boat, so its a close call but a go.

Actually, no. In this situation, you'll make a boat or better by the river and win 33.43% of the time.

Board: 2c Ac Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.434% 33.43% 00.00% 331 0.00 { 2h2s }
Hand 1: 66.566% 66.57% 00.00% 659 0.00 { QcJc }

So if the pot is $100 and they go all-in for $100 it's a break-even call, assuming you've looked at their cards and know they have a flush. But unless you've cheated, you're not 100% sure if they aren't just bluffing on a scary board, or with a four-flush, or have two pair and are afraid someone will draw out to a four-flush.

If it's not an all-in, it's not even enough to know they have the flush. How much do you both have behind? If the guy with the flush can be counted on to call a value bet after you improve, you also need to also include implied odds. Conversely, can this player be counted on to hammer you on the turn if you have a whiff?

Too simplified, but the basic odds of improving to beat a flush are one in three.

 

[Trihonda]

Ok now I know you're trolling me. I just want to know who's alt account this is, and why do you have so much free time to make up 2356 mind-numbing posts.

Since March

But really, that's an accomplishment. 7 posts per day (without a day off). I had to use a calculator for that math! Ha!

That said, I think there are those who really get the math, and those who are trying to learn. Can't fault those who are trying to learn.

 

[Jambine]

Tri's post got me thinking. Say I have

And the flop comes in with

And there is $100 in the pot. What size bet and above should I fold to?

I have 7 outs correct? Using rough rule of 4 = 28% breakeven %.

So is it accurate that I should fold to any bets above say $25-$30? Is it wise to call say a $20 bet?

What if I was on the button. Do you just check or bet and if betting, how much? TY.

yes 7 outs to a boat or better. I only call if its heads up, otherwise raise.
Even if you miss the turn you now have 10 outs (see @Mental Nomad above), and maybe you make your hand against the nut flush. sweet

EDIT: of course its possible he already made the flush and is drawing to a royal.
That sh*t seems to happens to me a lot

 

[Trihonda]

During my session yesterday, I flop a set of 3's. Tons of dead money, some aggressive betting on the flop $20 bet, call, call, then me in position, I raise to like $70. I get two folds one call (guy holding the nut flush draw). Turn completes the flush, guy jams his last $45 (into like $200+ pot). I know the guy hits his flush (strong suspicion). But I'm calling $45 to win $260. I call, then immediately announce that I think I need the board to pair, which it does on the river... Sweet jebus!

 

[Shaggy]

During my session yesterday, I flop a set of 3's. Tons of dead money, some aggressive betting on the flop $20 bet, call, call, then me in position, I raise to like $70. I get two folds one call (guy holding the nut flush draw). Turn completes the flush, guy jams his last $45 (into like $200+ pot). I know the guy hits his flush (strong suspicion). But I'm calling $45 to win $260. I call, then immediately announce that I think I need the board to pair, which it does on the river... Sweet jebus!

Your raise was only $50 more. You likely gave him the right odds to call on the flop.