Donk betting me on A high board? No respeck... (2 Viewers)

[tsossong18]

I have just posted a thread titled "4 ways to the river" and this hand here is against V2 from my previous thread (for reference if you read that post). Let's get to it.
1/3 game at Lumiere Place Casino in St. Louis, MO around midnight on Saturday evening. Game is 10 handed and the action has begun to slow down.
Villain: MP with ~$275 to start. We do not have much history with villain at this point. He is a late 20s/early 30s male dressed in a button down shirt and drinking a beer.
Hero: Button w/ $205 to start

Preflop: 3 folds to villain who limps, 4 folds to hero who looks down at . Hero raises to $15. The blinds fold and villain makes the call. Off to the flop.

Pot: $34
Flop:
Villain leads into the pot for $20
Hero...

I will update thread as we go through each street to hopefully make this more beneficial and interesting for us all. Thanks in advance for your analysis!

 

[Rhodeman77]

Most people will say the correct play here is to raise and I would do it too most of the time, but fold if reraised as this would mostly mean sets or Aces up and he donked bet hoping for a raise. But....

He is most likely trying to set the price he wants to pay to see the turn. He may have a small pair or an 8. He may even have a weaker A, a stronger one most likely would have raised instead of limp or rerasied you preflop. The only draw is a gutter to the wheel so that doesn't seem likely. I would figure he has a week one pair hand.

 

[BGinGA]

Smooth call. No draws on that dry board, and a raise here probably just takes it down. Give villain another chance to fire on the turn, and evaluate your response based on the resulting board texture.

 

[Rhodeman77]

But would he really fold to a min raise? Getting an extra $20 out of him is almost guaranteed.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

This is the easiest smooth call I've ever seen

 

[tsossong18]

How much longer should I give for people to respond before posting what I did on this street?

 

[Pokerdweebz]

How much longer should I give for people to respond before posting what I did on this street?

Not long IMO because flatting here is insanely standard

 

[onerand]

Call. I'd raise a weak turn bet, otherwise call.

 

[tsossong18]

In that case...
Hero instantly considers what villain could be leading out with. Being a dry flop and an A high board, it seems very likely that villain is holding an Ax hand. I would reason that the best hand that villain could hold would be 33 considering he limp called pre. The second best hand(s) villain has here are A8 or A3 but it's tough to make two pair. Either could be possible though because they would both fit into limp calling range for villain. I personally think he is MOST LIKELY to have Ax and at best to have AT. Me having a 9 block A9 obviously so AT seems to be his best A being that he would have most likely raised AJ-AK pre.

Pot: $74 - Villain ~$210 Hero $170
Turn:
Villain: Leads out $60
Hero...

 

[tsossong18]

Also I don't think I ever really get called by worse on the flop if I raise. Maybe but unlikely if I raise big. I'm never minraising

 

[Pokerdweebz]

You spoiled this hand on the last hand that you told us to look at for more info....

 

[BGinGA]

I think you are short-sighted on the types of hands Villain may be holding here. Not at all unusual for him to be holding Kx or Qx and donk-betting the flop in hopes that you have a smaller pocket pair and NOT an ace, and he takes it down.

That said, he now likely is betting with a hand. Since your ace is nicely disguised, it's time to raise.... make it $170 to go.

 

[tsossong18]

You spoiled this hand on the last hand that you told us to look at for more info....

Damn it, I forgot I went through the whole hand. I'm an idiot. Since that hand is case closed I went back and edited out the spoiler for people joining in on this thread now.

 

[tsossong18]

I think you are short-sighted on the types of hands Villain may be holding here. Not at all unusual for him to be holding Kx or Qx and donk-betting the flop in hopes that you have a smaller pocket pair and NOT an ace, and he takes it down.

Okay, lets think through this. Certainly a possibility as anything is possible in these games.

He limps pre and calls to close the action to my standard button raise. Hands with Ks in them in could range from Kx8x to KxQx I would think although I think he is raising KxJx & KxQx pre. KxTx I could see an argument either way for raising or limp calling in his shoes. Remember I'm trying to argue for him and I'm not saying "I would do this with these hands so I could see this..." just so we're clear. Moving on. Sort of the same story for suited Qx hands. QxTx probably raises but is the borderline hand for either raising or limp calling just as the KxTx was in his Kx range of hands. I could be too forgiving on this range and putting him on too tight of a range as well. What do you think? Many 1/3 players will play hands like Kx4x just because they're suited and looking to jackpot a flush draw, so this is why I could be giving him too tight of a range here. Although I would think he may not be that loose in early position but again who knows. Going through this thought exercise has me agreeing with you more.
Betting with one of those hands certainly would fit villain's profile. He essentially is taking a decent stab and asking me with his bet, "do you have an A?". Also I am by far the youngest player at the table (I'm 24 and fresh shaven, I have a baby face without my beard) which plays into a perceived image for me in many cases. I see players try to bully the younger players often in live games so this is also on my mind. All in all I think this helps to reassure that a flat call here is the best play as there are many bluffs that we fold out by raising on the flop and we don't really ever get anything better than our holding to fold other than possibly AT or AJ but still not likely at this point.

Your thoughts? I don't want to go on with the turn yet until more have replied

 

[BGinGA]

FWIW, I also think 98s and 87s are also in his limp/call pre range..... both of which hit on the flop and could be considered continuation-bet worthy on the turn.... figuring if you had an ace, you would have raised his flop donk bet.

And to be honest, I think there are a crap-load of hands he may have limp/called with: almost any suited K, QJx-QTx and Q9s-Q8x, JTs-J7s, T9s,,98s, 87s, small pairs 66 to 22, and who knows what else if he's a lagging.

Of all the possible hands he could have, very, very few have you beat..... but a lot of them have him leading out on that flop and betting again on the turn after you flat-call.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero is in a classic RIO (reverse implied odds) situation. Hero stands to lose a bigger pot when he loses than the pots he wins with a better hand.

We have no reads on villain. Hero might reasonably assume villain would raise preflop with AT+, but there are lots of passive players who routinely limp/call preflop with hands as big as ace-king. Hero should consider the amount of aggression post flop relative to the preflop passiveness when ranging villain. The flop bet was 60% pot. The turn bet was 80% pot. Villain took a passive line for $15 and an aggressive line for $80. I think that is cause for concern.

I am going to need a serious read on villain before I conclude a pair of aces with a nine kicker is the best hand. If Hero had not picked up a flush draw on the turn, I would seriously consider folding vs an unknown. It is rather unlikely that villain is a closet LAGtard but that this is the first time it happened at the table. (I appreciate we might have more information from another thread, but we do not know anything about this villain based on the original post.) Hero is silent so I have to assume this the first hand where villain wakes up post flop and fires twice.

I see no reason to deviate from ABC style - this is a basic casino villain. He limp/calls a lot and plays fit fold post flop. He doesn't read the board or make decisions based on board texture. He doesn't think beyond how his hand fits the board. He isn't bluffing very often, if ever and he never ever two barrel bluffs. He will be sticky and can be hard to bluff. We don't know what his pain threshold is to be forced to fold. Ace-nine is rarely the best hand and isn't the best hand if villain fires a third bet on the river.

I am calling the turn bet and will likely fold the river to a big third bet if the river bricks. My bias is fold rather than raise if choosing between the two.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

FWIW, I also think 98s and 87s are also in his limp/call pre range..... both of which hit on the flop and could be considered continuation-bet worthy on the turn.... figuring if you had an ace, you would have raised his flop donk bet.

And to be honest, I think there are a crap-load of hands he may have limp/called with: almost any suited K, QJx-QTx and Q9s-Q8x, JTs-J7s, T9s,,98s, 87s, small pairs 66 to 22, and who knows what else if he's a lagging.

Of all the possible hands he could have, very, very few have you beat..... but a lot of them have him leading out on that flop and betting again on the turn after you flat-call.

I think you're giving a typical 1/3 villain too many hands (barring geographical differences in play). A typical bad low stakes live player around here is never betting two streets with just an 8 here in my experience.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

In that case...
Hero instantly considers what villain could be leading out with. Being a dry flop and an A high board, it seems very likely that villain is holding an Ax hand. I would reason that the best hand that villain could hold would be 33 considering he limp called pre. The second best hand(s) villain has here are A8 or A3 but it's tough to make two pair. Either could be possible though because they would both fit into limp calling range for villain. I personally think he is MOST LIKELY to have Ax and at best to have AT. Me having a 9 block A9 obviously so AT seems to be his best A being that he would have most likely raised AJ-AK pre.

Pot: $74 - Villain ~$210 Hero $170
Turn:
Villain: Leads out $60
Hero...

Well for one thing we should never be flatting. If he folds enough better hands (mostly better aces as I think this is the heart of his value range and his bluff range is mostly non-existent) then jamming with 20-28% equity seems fine when he snap calls with sets and two pair hands. Otherwise I think this is probably a fold.

 

[tsossong18]

We have no reads on villain. Hero might reasonably assume villain would raise preflop with AT+, but there are lots of passive players who routinely limp/call preflop with hands as big as ace-king. Hero should consider the amount of aggression post flop relative to the preflop passiveness when ranging villain. The flop bet was 60% pot. The turn bet was 80% pot. Villain took a passive line for $15 and an aggressive line for $80. I think that is cause for concern.

This is a valid point. It certainly is common for players to play AK and AQ passively. I will say this though...I pay very close attention to every hand that I am both involved in and not involved in. At this point in the session, villain and I have no history but I have watched him play a few pots. He seems to be a loose player who likes to play pots. Lots of limp calling pre and at this point in the game that was his main strategy. This also plays a part in the reasoning of me raising this hand pre. Being on the button and given the action, I'm certainly raising this hand for value. In my overall strategy I will be sometimes raising here, and sometimes just limping. It was clear to me that villain is a player I want to be playing pots with in position and why not start building a pot in position. So I don't think against this player I need to be concerned about his limp call preflop range for me getting RIOd by it. I certainly take note when I see players table AK/AQ type hands when they play them passively pre and proceed cautiously with raising hands like the one I held here.

I see no reason to deviate from ABC style - this is a basic casino villain. He limp/calls a lot and plays fit fold post flop. He doesn't read the board or make decisions based on board texture. He doesn't think beyond how his hand fits the board. He isn't bluffing very often, if ever and he never ever two barrel bluffs. He will be sticky and can be hard to bluff. We don't know what his pain threshold is to be forced to fold.

As mentioned, I am the youngest player by far at the table. Every casino I have ever played at since I was 18 I have had someone at the table try to bully me. Villain seemed to be the guy looking to try and bully the young kid out of a pot after raising him pre flop. While I most certainly agree he is a level 1 thinker, there is definitely a dynamic of my age in the mix as well. I am always aware of this and it has been more and more obvious to me over the years. I have a baby face when I don't have my beard, and something about a young kid makes certain guys try to go all macho on me...I really can't explain as to why though. That being said, he certainly is sticky and we do not know his pain tolerance here to fold. This is on my mind at this point. This also leads me to believe he has a decent Ax hand that may or may not be beating me. Would villain barrell twice like this with A5? It is certainly possible I think. I don't think it is fair to completely assume we are crushed here although at the moment and still I feel like I may have been behind in the hand.

I am calling the turn bet and will likely fold the river to a big third bet if the river bricks.

This seems like a very poor play to me. So we are calling here with plans of folding if the river bricks and he fires off a large bet? So say the 2 of bananas comes on the river and he puts us all in? You're saying you will believe him that we are beat, but we could have just folded turn then if we are only hoping to improve to a flush? Or are you counting 9s as improving over his range as well? Since he could have sets and you seem to be convinced he is at the top of his range. We block the top top of his range holding the . So calling the turn to me seems disastrous, especially if we are looking to fold to a shove on a banana or potentially check behind. Shoving or folding are the only two options imo here. Folding avoids the disaster of calling, and shoving here still gives us fold equity and we rep more being the preflop aggressor. I don't think you're buying that we rep more because you seem to think his limp call preflop range consists of mostly monsters but this is where I disagree and am basing this off of paying attention in the game. Further discussion to ensue..

 

[tsossong18]

I think you're giving a typical 1/3 villain too many hands (barring geographical differences in play). A typical bad low stakes lives player around here is never betting two streets with just an 8 here in my experience.

I mostly agree with this although I will not say never because I have seen it happen. Namely someone betting 2 streets on a board like this holding TT or JJ who just thinks they deserve to win for having a pocket pair. Then berates player for having A2 and not folding...however I could see a hand like or playing this way as well.

Well for one thing we should never be flatting. If he folds enough better hands (mostly better aces as I think this is the heart of his value range and his bluff range is mostly non-existent) then jamming with 20-28% equity seems fine when he snap calls with sets and two pair hands. Otherwise I think this is probably a fold.

Agreed, flatting is a catastrophe on all fronts. I agree with this analysis as a whole. Although I think he is sometimes value owning himself betting with hands like A5 but not extremely likely. I think there is enough fold equity to shove and fold out AT and AJ. AK he's probably calling so AK being the bottom of his calling range to a shove but this could be being too conservative, I'm not entirely sure.

 

[tsossong18]

Hero: Thinks about it very briefly. It seems very possible that hero is behind here but obviously has equity and enough fold equity to shove. Hero decides to shove and villain goes into the tank for about a minute. Hero does not talk or give off any tells. It appears villain is convincing himself to fold. Before villain acts, he says to another player at the table who he seems to be friends with "I think he's got AQ"...waits about another 15 seconds and proceeds to muck his hand. Villain's friend tells me to show him the or . I almost never show a hand and especially a bluff to the wrong players, however I don't take very kindly to villains who think they are going to bully around the "youngin" at the table. I show villain the , his friend erupted in laughter and the steam shot him into outerspace before countdown could occur. This hand was kept in mind the rest of the night and he proceeded to berate me for my play for the next 5 minutes and was salty in every hand we played from there on out. He vouched to stack me, and I remained calm and just said that there was not enough money to be getting so upset. Hand 3 against this villain will be posted possibly soon

 

[thorwilliam]

On the turn you have the perfect calling hand. I don't get why you are raising. You are trying to fold out exactly AT? Seems like a terrible plan.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

On the turn you have the perfect calling hand. I don't get why you are raising. You are trying to fold out exactly AT? Seems like a terrible plan.

Calling more than 1/3 of our stack just to hit a flush draw is suicide. Unless we improve to two pair/a flush on the river we have to fold to his jam 100% of the time(which he is doing basically always) which makes calling by far the worst option. We jam as a bluff (with equity) to fold out better aces and hope to get lucky if we get snapped off or we fold the turn.

 

[thorwilliam]

Calling more than 1/3 of our stack just to hit a flush draw is suicide. Unless we improve to two pair/a flush on the river we have to fold to his jam 100% of the time(which he is doing basically always) which makes calling by far the worst option. We jam as a bluff (with equity) to fold out better aces and hope to get lucky if we get snapped off or we fold the turn.

We have top pair, so we have sdv. We are not calling only to improve. Suicide is jamming when we are way ahead or way behind. Hero said he thaught AT was the only better ace in villains range, so turning our hand into a bluff does not make much sense.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

We have top pair, so we have sdv. We are not calling only to improve. Suicide is jamming when we are way ahead or way behind. Hero said he thaught AT was the only better ace in villains range, so turning our hand into a bluff does not make much sense.

We don't have showdown value. We have a bluff catcher. Calling here is plain bad. We are never calling the river.

 

[thorwilliam]

We don't have showdown value. We have a bluff catcher. Calling here is plain bad. We are never calling the river.

Good luck with poker!

 

[Pokerdweebz]

Good luck with poker!

What do we accomplish by calling turn? We have $110 behind in what will be a $200 pot. He is jamming any river. We have to fold river when we don't improve and if your plan is to call the river anyway (which is bad) jamming with any amount of fold equity makes infinitely more sense. We aren't getting the odds to draw to a 9 (which isn't even always good and we owned ourselves) or a flush. I'm advocating for a fold on the turn as the best option if you weren't sure.

 

[thorwilliam]

What do we accomplish by calling turn? We have $110 behind in what will be a $200 pot. He is jamming any river. We have to fold river when we don't improve and if your plan is to call the river anyway (which is bad) jamming with any amount of fold equity makes infinitely more sense. We aren't getting the odds to draw to a 9 (which isn't even always good and we owned ourselves) or a flush. I'm advocating for a fold on the turn as the best option if you weren't sure.

How do you know that he is jamming any river?
If he is we do have implied odds to call to hit a flush.
What hands do you try to fold out by jamming?

 

[Pokerdweebz]

How do you know that he is jamming any river?
If he is we do have implied odds to call to hit a flush.
What hands do you try to fold out by jamming?

1/2 Villains don't donk lead 60% flop, lead 80% turn, to not jam ~55% on the river (at least in America maybe this is a geographical difference). If I'm value betting here (as villain) I'm still jamming heart rivers and if I'm bluffing (as villain) I'm still bluff jamming heart rivers (these are the rivers that he would not jam on if he were to not jam).

I don't think we are deep enough to have implied odds with only 55% of a PSB on the river.

I think we need to preface this because we might not be on the same page. I believe that he is jamming 100% of rivers and I believe that you are advocating we call 100% of rivers. So everything I'm saying is based on these two premises. If we are calling the river always when he is always jamming it doesn't matter if he folds 0 hands because it's the same equity for us. If he even folds 1 combo of AT we have better equity in that scenario. I think he can fold all one pair aces better than ours (and worse but I think he has significantly less of those if any).

 

[thorwilliam]

..