Tourney Estimating the End of Tournament (1 Viewer)

Coyote

Coyote

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I 've already seen some very useful information in a couple of older threads.
I wonder if there is a "formula" to help us tailor the duration of tournaments by factoring in correctly all relevant factors.

I normally play cash, but sometimes not enough people are available from either my strong or my friendly weak crew, and combining people from both in a cash game would mean slaughter for the latter. Controlled loss for those people is the reason I 'm studying tournament structures now.

My concern is to keep my friends (who will have booked their evening and gotten permission by the wives) in my home for as long as possible, without the whole thing exceeding 5 hours plus breaks.

I 'm thinking deep starting stack (up to 300bbs), 20 to 18-minute levels with smooth blinds increase at least up to L8, one rebuy per person for same price (say 40-50E) and same stack up to level 4, and 33-50% augmented stack from L5 to L8 (end of re-buy period). Re-buy can be had without being felted, if you surrender all your existing stack.

10 players. One of my sets (T-25) could support up to 20 and another (T5) up to 16, but I doubt that will ever happen.

Experts please help. We could eventually make this a sticky thread.
 
Defunct sites and people are our friends ("Home Poker Tourney"):

Method 1: In general, your poker tournament will probably end a little before the big blind equals the starting chip (buyin) amount. For example, if the initial buyin is 1000 chips, your poker tournament will probably end just before the big blind equals 1000 chips. If you want your tourney to last about four hours - adjust the blinds schedule so that the big blind is 1000 about four hours into play. In addition, if you have your poker blinds structure set up properly - most home poker tournaments seem to finish anywhere from the 8th to the 12th blinds level ... so try to make your big blind equal to your starting chip buyin amount during that period.

Method 2: Your tourney will probably end when the small blind + big blind = 10% of the total chips in play. So if you have a 1000 chip buyin tournament of 15 players and 3 players rebuy (18,000 chips in play), your tournament will probably end about the 600/1200 level (600 + 1200 = 10% of 18,000). You can also add any add-ons to the total chips in play. This method is most accurate for smaller one or two table tourneys.

Method 3: A more accurate method to predict when your poker tournament will probably end is to estimate the total number of chips that will be in play and divide this by anywhere from about 5% to 10%. The total number of chips in play will be the total of all the buyins, rebuys, and add-ons. When your big blind equals 5% to 10% of the total chips in play, your tourney will probably soon end. For example, if 20 players buyin (20,000 chips) and you usually average about 7 players who rebuy (7,000 chips) - you will have 27,000 chips in play. Calculating 5% to 10% of 27,000 means that you can probably expect your tournament to end when your big blind is between 1620 to 2700 chips.

Method 4: Similar to Method 3. Your tournament will end when the big blind equals 5% of the total number of chips in play.
Number of Players x Starting Chip Stack x 5% = Big Blind of the last level
 
With no antes, the total starting chips in play divided by 20 = the big blind value of the very last blind level expected to occur (could finish sooner and usually does, by one level).

Adding antes typically shaves off one or two levels. Adding re-buys typically adds one or two levels (but usually just one, unless a very high re-buy rate).

Works for NLHE events from 6-50 players. Pot-limit tournaments usually finish 1-2 levels sooner, and split-pot games typically take 1-2 levels longer.
 
Humbly submitting two structures for 10 players, for advice, given the above-stated priorities and my chip sets:

A. T25-based, starting stack 10K.
20-minute blind levels; with levels beyond the re-buy period (after L8) being not time-based, but rather one orbit of players. Rebuys: full price for a full stack up to L4 and full price for a 50% augmented stack (15K) from L5 up to L8.

L1 25/50
L2 25/75
L3 50/100
L4 75/150 Break, color-up T25s - Re-buys 10K up to here

L5 100/200 Re-buys 15K for this and next levels
L6 100/300
L7 200/400
L8 300/600 End of Rebuy period - break optional (?). Next levels=one orbit

L9 400/800 Break, color-up T100s

L10 500/1000
L11 500/1500
L12 1000/2000
L13 1500/3000 Break

L14 2000/4000
L15 3000/6000
L16 5000/10000

B. T5-based, starting stack 2K.
25-minute blind levels up to the end of the rebuy period (L6), and then one orbit per Level.
Rebuys: Full price for full stack (2K) up to L4, full price for 50% augmented stack (3K) for Levels 5 and 6.

L1 5/10
L2 5/15
L3 10/20
L4 15/30 Break, color-up T5s - Re-buys up to 2K up to here.

L5 25/50 Re-buys 3K for this and next level
L6 25/75 End of re-buy period, break optional. Next levels = one orbit each.

L7 50/100
L8 75/150 Break, color-up T25s

L9 100/200
L10 100/300
L11 200/400
L12 300/600 Break? Color-up T100s - optional

L13 500/1000
L14 500/1500
L15 1000/2000
 
I see the one-orbit being a big issue if its the same place every time; I would hate to get the big blind first every level versus the person who starts at button and ends the level as small blind. I might be misunderstanding and your players might not care but it can be significant.
 
NotRealNameNoSir said:
I see the one-orbit being a big issue if its the same place every time; I would hate to get the big blind first every level versus the person who starts at button and ends the level as small blind. I might be misunderstanding and your players might not care but it can be significant.
Click to expand...
Yeah, this could be cured by drawing a card at each level / orbit. Highest card gets the Button.
 
Coyote said:
Yeah, this could be cured by drawing a card at each level / orbit. Highest card gets the Button.
Click to expand...
Eh, I understand but its just another process slowing things down, and I don't like the randomization. Not necessarily a bad thing but could lead to me being UTG twice in a row with 10 big blinds on the bubble. If I'm late in a tournament I am thinking about how many big blinds I'll have at different positions, now its randomized when I'll be hit by the blinds which have now increased.
 
NotRealNameNoSir said:
Eh, I understand but its just another process slowing things down, and I don't like the randomization. Not necessarily a bad thing but could lead to me being UTG twice in a row with 10 big blinds on the bubble. If I'm late in a tournament I am thinking about how many big blinds I'll have at different positions, now its randomized when I'll be hit by the blinds which have now increased.
Click to expand...
But isn't it also random from which positions you 're going to play at each level? 20 or 25 minutes are NOT an eternity. Especially 20 minutes can be just one orbit, early on.
 
Coyote said:
But isn't it also random from which positions you 're going to play at each level? 20 or 25 minutes are NOT an eternity. Especially 20 minutes can be just one orbit, early on.
Click to expand...
Early on, but we're now late in a tournament. Its not random, I'm UTG after Big blind, and big blind after small blind, etc. That's what I mean, I'm not calculating the exact minute that I'm in the Cutoff, I'm considering when I'll be in what position and eyeing short stacks in that time.

Whatever works, its going to be fun regardless!
 
Nothing inherently wrong or unfair about orbit-based blind levels, and there are no significant advantages (or disadvantages) to advancing them at the same button location each time vs a timed level (unless a BBA is used).

Only caveat I would add is that orbit-based levels should also account for the number of remaining players, so that roughly the same number of hands are played at each blind level. For example:

• 7-10 players, one orbit (7-10 hands)
• 5-6 players, two orbits (10-12 hands)
• 3-4 players, three orbits (9-12 hands)
• 2 players, time-based (15min = 8-10 hands)

One alternate rule can be "play xx orbits plus one hand" before increasing the blinds. This changes the actual button location each time that the blind increases go into effect.
 
BGinGA said:
Nothing inherently wrong or unfair about orbit-based blind levels, and there are no significant advantages (or disadvantages) to advancing them at the same button location each time vs a timed level (unless a BBA is used).

Only caveat I would add is that orbit-based levels should also account for the number of remaining players, so that roughly the same number of hands are played at each blind level. For example:

• 7-10 players, one orbit (7-10 hands)
• 5-6 players, two orbits (10-12 hands)
• 3-4 players, three orbits (9-12 hands)
• 2 players, time-based (15min = 8-10 hands)

One alternate rule can be "play xx orbits plus one hand" before increasing the blinds. This changes the actual button location each time that the blind increases go into effect.
Click to expand...
Thanks!
Is the blinds' progression and re-buy scheme OK for the purposes I explained?
 
Coyote said:
Thanks!
Is the blinds' progression and re-buy scheme OK for the purposes I explained?
Click to expand...
Yes, I think so, although I'd probably go with:

L9 400/800
L10 600/1200
L11 800/1600
L12 1100 2200
L13 1500/3000
Break, color-up T100s and T500s

Followed by:

L14 2000/4000
L15 3000/6000
L16 4000/8000
L17 6000/12000
L18 8000/16000
L19 10000/20000

20 players with 10k stacks should finish no later than L17, maybe L18 with re-buys.
 
BGinGA said:
Yes, I think so, although I'd probably go with:

L9 400/800
L10 600/1200
L11 800/1600
L12 1100 2200
L13 1500/3000
Break, color-up T100s and T500s

Followed by:

L14 2000/4000
L15 3000/6000
L16 4000/8000
L17 6000/12000
L18 8000/16000
L19 10000/20000

20 players with 10k stacks should finish no later than L17, maybe L18 with re-buys.
Click to expand...
I'm surprised you didn't say 11000/22000 for level 19, since you go for the 16-22-30 big blind pattern often.
 
TheRealStephen12 said:
I'm surprised you didn't say 11000/22000 for level 19, since you go for the 16-22-30 big blind pattern often.
Click to expand...
'Cuz it will never get that far in this case.

For larger events that have 20+ blind levels, I prefer the smoother increàses and color-up options afforded by a 16-22-30 progression.
 

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