Folding Kings Preflop (1 Viewer)

[Jimulacrum]

I folded pocket kings preflop tonight, five-handed (actually four-handed, as Dave was sitting out) in the Monday night tournament. Rather than frame it as a suspenseful play-by-play, I'm just going to paste the hand history here and invite commentary.

@Tommy and I have only a little history at the table, but @AK Chip and @MatB and I have many hours. This hand came up early in the game, with stack depths hovering around 500 BB.

PokerStars Home Game Hand #163949436266: {PokerChipForum} Tournament #1772154418, 10+1 Mixed PLH/PLO (Hold'em Pot Limit) - Level III (20/40) - 2017/01/02 23:10:38 ET
Table '1772154418 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: Jimulacrum (21050 in chips)
Seat 2: MatB44 (17865 in chips)
Seat 4: BGinGA (19850 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 6: ahpl (20902 in chips)
Seat 7: PCF_Tommy (20333 in chips)
PCF_Tommy: posts small blind 20
Jimulacrum: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jimulacrum [Kc Kd]
MatB44: calls 40
BGinGA: folds
ahpl: folds
PCF_Tommy: raises 40 to 80
Jimulacrum: raises 200 to 280
MatB44: calls 240
PCF_Tommy: raises 200 to 480
Jimulacrum: raises 1240 to 1720
MatB44: folds
PCF_Tommy: raises 3720 to 5440
Jimulacrum: folds [Kc Kd]
Uncalled bet (3720) returned to PCF_Tommy
PCF_Tommy collected 3720 from pot
PCF_Tommy: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3720 | Rake 0
Seat 1: Jimulacrum (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: MatB44 folded before Flop
Seat 4: BGinGA folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: ahpl (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: PCF_Tommy (small blind) collected (3720)

 

[MatB]

In hind site it may be a good fold, but i still think another 4k to call to see the Flop. He may have had AK or QQ, turns out he had AA and it was a good fold.
And yes even if a K or A doesn't show on the flop you still think your ahead and in basically the same position you were pre flop.
I rescind my comment about call button being broken!

EDIT: In my defense also, I want 2 players at the table to go all in. Especially with a hand i'm not in

 

[Mr. Cheese]

I may be wrong but isn't the chance of Tommy having pocket aces like 4% in that situation. If he does have pocket aces your odds of hitting trips to beat him are what 1 to 7 so 12.x % that you improve your hand to win if he has that 4% hand.

With a low buyin tourney I'd be willing to take the risk with the small chance he has aces especially when you aren't being called all in preflop.

Disclaimer its late so my math might be way off.

 

[GoStumpy]

Pure odds without any betting indication maybe, but do you think with a 6bet preflop the chance is still 4%?

 

[Mr. Cheese]

Tommy's a huge bluffer. 2 7 offsuit was my guess

 

[Jimulacrum]

I may be wrong but isn't the chance of Tommy having pocket aces like 4% in that situation.

His chances of having pocket aces, given only that he was dealt two unknown cards, is about 0.45%.

His chances of having aces after he raised preflop, pot 4-bet over a pot 3-bet and a caller, and then pot 6-bet for over 1/4 of his stack over a pot 5-bet, are significantly greater. Probably. And there was no lead-up to this hand or anything of the sort to indicate he'd make a crazy play at me here.

If he does have pocket aces your odds of hitting trips to beat him are what 1 to 7 so 12.x %

Yes, my odds of flopping a set are about that. Trouble is, it's 3,720 to call, with 7,440 total in the pot, and I can win a maximum of 14,893 from Tommy if I do hit a set. So assuming the most generous scenario where I always stack him if I flop a set, I'm getting almost exactly 6:1 pot plus implied odds. That's assuming a lot of unrealistically favorable stuff, and even in that case I'm only about break-even.

 

[bergs]

You think he flats with QQ, KK, and AK there?

 

[BGinGA]

Given Jim's PCF raise-with-nothing-but-position reputation and Tommy's stubbornness, I'd guess he'd be pushing AQ and TT/JJ in addition to ^those^ hands. Eventually Jim will fold unless he's holding aces.

My 2c worth of observation.

 

[AlPresidente]

Pretty hard for Tommy to signal aces harder than this...if there's ever a time to fold kings in a tournament, this is it...I shove.

 

[Forty4]

Given Jim's PCF raise-with-nothing-but-position reputation and Tommy's stubbornness, I'd guess he'd be pushing AQ and TT/JJ in addition to ^those^ hands. Eventually Jim will fold unless he's holding aces.

My 2c worth of observation.

Jim's not really in position to raise with nothing given that MatB is behind him. Given the fact that Mat called the $240 he was probably playing on the fact that Jim will take swings at pots, but the next time it comes around to him it's gone to 4 bet he has to get out of the way. Tommy also has to know that Jim has a big hand after the 4 bet and still makes another big bet, think Jim made a huge lay down. I'm not sure I could have done it for a $10 tournament.

Edit: Jim might make it 4 bet with QQ as well given that Mat is behind him and he can gain position on Tommy. But I think the way the betting goes he has a VERY thin range.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Given Jim's PCF raise-with-nothing-but-position reputation and Tommy's stubbornness, I'd guess he'd be pushing AQ and TT/JJ in addition to ^those^ hands. Eventually Jim will fold unless he's holding aces.

My 2c worth of observation.

That's your experience with me and your experience with Tommy. Between me and Tommy, it's a whole other picture. He and I just don't have any basis for a leveling war against each other. This was a value-raising war, and he clearly wanted to get it all in the middle with no reservations.

If I had run the numbers, I'd have probably talked myself into continuing, based on some vague notion of other hands he could have. But in the moment, I had a clear read based on a variety of factors, and that 6-bet was the last clue to make me sure enough to fold.

I think you know better than to say I will eventually fold unless I'm holding aces. I've gotten all-in against you in a very similar spot with kings in the recent past (and of course you had aces).

You think he flats with QQ, KK, and AK there?

Flats the 3-bet? Almost definitely not with KK, maybe with the other two.

But of course, there are also far fewer ways for him to have these hands while I'm holding KK.

More importantly:

Pretty hard for Tommy to signal aces harder than this...if there's ever a time to fold kings in a tournament, this is it.

Every bit of evidence I had from Tommy was screaming "ACES!" The line, the timing, the texture of the game to that point, everything. We'd been mostly playing small-pot poker, and then all of a sudden, this crazy hand. I made my 5-bet with the intention of it looking as strong as it was, as I already suspected aces, and he came over the top of it without hesitation. I basically snap-folded (and showed the kings, 'cause I'm a madman).

Most of the other times I've folded kings, it's been because the combined strength of two or more opponents meant aces were almost certain. Against one guy in a four-handed game, I've gotta be really friggin' sure, and that's how sure I was.

 

[Forty4]

And now we all know how to bully Jim out of a pot as well.

 

[MegaTon44]

My general rule of thumb in evaluating opponent hand strength is:

4 bet pre = AA or KK
5+ bet pre = AA

Granted, a handful of people can pull off an Ivey-esque bluff, but I've saved more money than I lost following this strategy.

 

[Jimulacrum]

And now we all know how to bully Jim out of a pot as well.

Ahh, but Jim knows you know.