Tourney Go for the Gold...? (1 Viewer)

Trihonda

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I'm making a run at a Mid-States Poker Tour event here in WI. This OP is part question, but also TR for my tourney experience.

I think I know the answer to my question (which I'll pose at the end on this OP). Read if interested, don't if not.

The MSPT has a few weeks of sattys and qualifiers, in the following structures:

$65 Satty, top 20% earn seats to the qualifiers
$250 Qualifiers, top 20% earn ME seats
$1100 Main event, 200k gtd event. Two daily flights (Fri-Sat) and a final day (Sun).

I'll add the ME structure in post # 2.

I entered a $65 satty and crushed the 148 entrant field. I was one of the main chip leaders at the end with 3-4x the avg stack. Players were atrocious.

Starting stacks $10k, starting blinds 100/100, and the event ended with 28 ppl moving on.

MSPT Satty.JPG


I entered the $250 qualifier last night, and did really well at first, chipping up to a very healthy chip stack of ~40k. Then I had a couple cooler hands and went card dead. I got moved around quite a lot, which really hindered my ability to get reads from fellow players, and get settled in, and with a smaller chipstack, I wasn't able to make many plays... etc...

I ended the qualifier with only 30k ~10bb (and avg stacks of around 55k), and I was at a table where the avg stack was closer to 200k. There were obviously a few people in the tourney who did a ton of knock outs, and had monster stacks. In reality, I was very nervous as we approached the bubble. I was keeping close track of the remaining stacks. Out of 151 entrants, only the top 30 advanced.

When down to 4 tables, I realized I was likely good considering there were 10 stacks shorter than me, and only 5 spots to the bubble. My strat morphed to playing uber sphincter tight, and it worked. It wasn't my normal style, but it was impossible to make a plays against people with stacks that could literally could lose 3/4 of their stacks and still blind their way into the top 20%. My goal wasn't to finish the qualifier with a monster stack, just finish in the top 30.

For instance, there were numerous hands I would have normally shoved with, such as AQ suited in the BB, but I folded it to a small raise by a monster stack. There was no reason to get too worried, as we were closely monitoring a few guys at an adjacent table (1 guy had 1bb) who were circling the drain. My 10bbs was not in danger. If this were the ME, and chip totals mattered, I'd have played much differently. The one shorter stack at my table didn't understand this, and kept limping into pots, and when he was down to 3bb, he shoves with KK (into a table full of guys with 70-80bbs), and gets 7 callers (all but me). Of course, he's eliminated.

Here was my stack shortly after starting the qualifier. Up to ~17k within a few hands

MSPT Qualifier.JPG



Now, here's my dilemma. I have never had the opportunity to make a run at one of these tournaments. So this is a lot of fun for me. So far, this has been a good investment of my initial $65. Previous years winners have received 6 figure paydays. Last year, I believe, paid ~40 places in the ME (with a field of around 400). This year is anticipated to reach 500 ME entries, and payout close to 50 spots (~ 10%). Once in the money, we're talking about payouts in the 2-3k range to start (possibly much more the deeper I run). The field will be very tough, and I think I have the skill to hang with some of the big-dawgs (even though I'll squarely admit that many will outclass me). However, as we know, even the best players can bust out or run bad. It will take a lot of luck to reach the money.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to play my seat, but here's the catch. My ME entry is transferable, and I've already received offers from people to purchase it (for over $1,000). You'd think, easy fold. Go for the gold! Right? Well, I have to get past 90% of a tough field to reach the money and then only get around 2k to start. But I could take a guaranteed 1k profit right now, with none of the fingernail biting and variance...?

I'll post more of the event structure and pics of the main event (if/when) I play next weekend. :)
 
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MAIN EVENT BLIND STRUCTURE

2-Day Event with Multiple Day 1 Flights, 40-minute Levels, 15,000 Starting Chip Stack with Optional Dealer Appreciation - Add-on: $10 = 5,000 chips. 20,000 total chips

Day 1a will end at Level 14 or stop if 15% or less of the starting field remains. Subsequent flights will play to exact time that Day 1a stopped.

Level Ante Blinds
1st Level - 50-100
2nd Level - 75-150
3rd Level - 100-200
BREAK
4th Level 25 100-200
5th Level 25 150-300
6th Level 50 200-400
BREAK
7th Level 50 250-500
8th Level 75 300-600
9th Level 100 400-800
BREAK (race off 25's) End of Late Reg & Re-Entries
10th Level 100 500-1,000
11th Level 200 600-1,200
12th Level 200 800-1,600
BREAK
13th Level 300 1,000-2,000
14th Level 400 1,200-2,400
END OF DAY 1 (race off 100's)
15th Level 500 1,500-3,000
16th Level 500 2,000-4,000
17th Level 500 2,500-5,000
BREAK (race off 500's)
18th Level 1,000 3,000-6,000
19th Level 1,000 4,000-8,000
20th Level 1,000 5,000-10,000
BREAK
21st Level 2,000 6,000-12,000
22nd Level 2,000 8,000-16,000
23rd Level 3,000 10,000-20,000
BREAK
24th Level 4,000 12,000-24,000
25th Level 4,000 15,000-30,000
26th Level 5,000 20,000-40,000
BREAK (race off 1,000's)
27th Level 5,000 25,000-50,000
28th Level 10,000 30,000-60,000
29th Level 10,000 40,000-80,000
BREAK
30th Level 10,000 50,000-100,000
31st Level 20,000 60,000-120,000
32nd Level 20,000 80,000-160,000
BREAK
33rd Level 30,000 100,000-200,000
34th Level 40,000 120,000-240,000
35th Level 40,000 150,000-300,000
 
If you don't think you can win, don't play. Take the money and run.

Personally, I'd swing for the fences. (y) :thumbsup:
 
Hmm looking at your options...

Do you have the time to invest in playing it? Seems you want to take a run at it. I would but my motivations are I want the MT play time more than the $1000 for this level of play. Is what you can earn and learn from this experience worth more than $1000 to you? Does that $1000 mean something significant that can help you in a different way?

I love poker because it is a game of decisions. Looks like one you need to make here as well :).

Not sure if this is common knowledge, but a lot of grinders make money by playing satellites and selling the seats.
 
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I have to get past 90% of a tough field to reach the money and then only get around 2k to start. But I could take a guaranteed 1k profit right now, with none of the fingernail biting and variance...?

Sell your ticket for $2000 on the understanding that you also get 20% of the winnings.
 
Sell your ticket for $2000 on the understanding that you also get 20% of the winnings.
I would do this in Eric's position 100% of the time. Of course it may be difficult to find a buyer when they can buy in direct for $1100 ;)
 
Sell your ticket for $2000 on the understanding that you also get 20% of the winnings.

In a heartbeat if someone would pay me 2x the value + tourney equity... Alas, this aint gonna happen.

Edited: Ronoh beat me to it.
 
Not sure if this is common knowledge, but a lot of grinders make money by playing satellites and selling the seats.
That was me back in the good old days on Stars... large field sattys are easy when one takes a common sense approach to them. Every Sunday I would play numerous 36+3's to the Sunday Million. 1-in-6 moves on and I beat them at a 3-1 clip... no idea how many hundreds of them I played but at 1500 starting stacks only twice did I ever reach 6K and fail to hit a ticket. Rarely played the SM, I was playing to turn 39 in to $215 T$.

In your case don't look at it in terms of +/-EV... if you want to play then play. If you'd rather have the grand, take the dough.

If you are dead set on the +/- implications then it all depends on the number of players. If there will be 200 or more people playing then if you can get over $1000 for the seat it's +EV as only $1000 of the $1100 buyin goes towards the prize pool. If there are less than 182 people then it's -EV to sell even at face value.
 
If the money matters to you, take the money or money + a piece of the action of the player that you sell to.
 
To answer some questions. I think I'm capable of hanging with the big dawgs. I play a weekly tourney with some of the same major players, who have either run very deep or won major events. (Granted, there will also be some major out of town talent coming in too). The ME field is expected to be 500...

I normally do well in that weekly 50-60 person tourney, cashing (top 10%) >40% of the time, and winning a few times. But I don't think this is a lock cash, absolutely not. I think it will take a lot of luck to cash. However, I think it's conceivable to do well enough to bring home a cash, and maybe run deep. Who knows...

I have the time off work and have permission from my wife to play (she's already spending 1st place money)...

$1000 is absolutely a lot of money to me. However, it's not really money to me at this point. It's part of my BR, and not really money until I take it out of my BR. Can I afford to spend this kinda of money out of my BR to play a major event? Yes. However, let's say I had a $1k profit at a cash game, I probably wouldn't invest my BR to play a $1100 tourney... To be honest, my BR isn't quite THAT deep enough to play at that level for any time.. However, I don't need the 1k for anything really, and at the game stakes I play, my BR wouldn't really miss it. And it's just a piece of paper that says I have a ME entry...

That said... I do have a strong desire to see what I could do (both monetarily and for my poker resume). I might cash, I might not, but I won't know unless I play.

If I busted out, I'm really only out the $65, which is why I'm leaning towards playing. I know it's conflicting... I guess it's all on how you chose to look at it... If I spent $1100 cash for a tourney, and busted, I'd be puking, because an $1100 tourney is more than I've ever played for before...

As you can see my disjointed ramblings, I'm still in conflict. Everyone's advice on taking the money and running is probably the 'right' choice...
 
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I would take the chance to go and play in the main event especially with your success in the satty's. I assume that is why you decided to play them in the 1st place.

However, if you can keep playing the satty's and keep winning them, maybe just keep playing them and sell off multiple seats. (if they are really that soft.)

I also think it depends if you have the time off from work if the ME runs during the work week. If you have the time, do it, if not sell and plan on doing it right next time.

I would play though and then not regret the woulda, shoulda down the road if time permits. My thought is, how many opportunities present itself like this.
 
Play the event, find some other local players you confide in, and swap some %s. Or sell some action on here with no markup. Aka sell 5% for $50 %10 for $100 on so on. I bet some degens in here will take the action
 
Play the event, find some other local players you confide in, and swap some %s.

I've done this for smaller casino tourneys, just so the guys I ride up with, have a pony to race even if they bust out early. and vs versa. This is a great idea. I've got a couple friends that are all looking forward to playing together at this event. I'm betting one or two would swap % action, just for the fun of it.
 
Tournaments are a lotto. You just scratched off a free ticket. Spin it up imo.
 
$1000 is not enough to break the bank. Look at the opportunity to play the ME. A bunch of players are paying that amount to play. You invested almost 15.5 times less than a player paying to enter.

Worst case is you don't place but you are only out $65. Best case you turn $65 in to $$$$ and the opportunity to say you played with some of the best. No brainier IMO. You can easily make $1000 but may never get this chance again!!!

Play!
 
The Satty and Qualifier Structures were essentially turbo's, with very little opportunity to utilize skill. The ME structure is more appealing to me, and 'feels' more like poker...

Below is the structure they both used.

QUALIFIER BLIND STRUCTURE - (top 20% from each qualifying round advance)

20/30-minute Levels, 10,000 Starting Chip Stack

**Re-entries allowed through first break (4 levels), players receive full starting stack

Level Ante Blinds
1st Level - 100-100
2nd Level - 100-200
3rd Level - 200-400
4th Level - 300-600
5th Level 100 300-600
6th Level 100 500-1,000
7th Level 100 800-1,600
8th Level 200 1,000-2,000
9th Level 300 1,500-3,000
10th Level 400 2,000-4,000
11th Level 500 3,000-6,000
12th Level 500 4,000-8,000
13th Level 1,000 5,000-10,000
14th Level 1,000 7,000-14,000
15th Level 2,000 10,000-20,000
16th Level 2,000 12,000-24,000
17th Level 2,000 15,000-30,000
 
Would you take 10,000 or play the WSOP if given the choice?

Such a great question...

Now, if someone gave me a seat to ME and said "here, give it a shot", I'd probably give it a shot (even if they offered me like 9k cash to opt out). However, I don't think (at this moment in my life), I'd take 10k out of my bank account (even if it had an extra 10k in there), and fly to Vegas to enter...

Not sure if this makes sense...
 
Such a great question...

Now, if someone gave me a seat to ME and said "here, give it a shot", I'd probably give it a shot (even if they offered me like 9k cash to opt out). However, I don't think (at this moment in my life), I'd take 10k out of my bank account (even if it had an extra 10k in there), and fly to Vegas to enter...

Not sure if this makes sense...
Exactly my point! Play the event.

Also the first sentence in the OP said you are making a run for the Tourney. Not making a run for $1000 cash. Play the tourney and keep us up to date.

I have had many opportunities to take one time items and experiences and turn them in to cash. I never took the money and had some once in a lifetime experiences. The money is generally always there but the experiences come and go. I have never regretted not taking the money!!!!

Wish you well
 
There's plenty of money out there, they print more every day. Only a dummy would give this up for something as common as money.
 
There's plenty of money out there, they print more every day. Only a dummy would give this up for something as common as money.

Guess I'm a dummy. If I can take 65 bucks up to a grand I'm going to do it.
 
Guess I'm a dummy. If I can take 65 bucks up to a grand I'm going to do it.
Moneymaker could have turned $86 in to $11,000 instead of $2.5M

It's one thing if Eric was actually torn on the situation but reading into his posts he really wants to play and is simply trying to justify it. Nudge, nudge ;)
 

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