How do we read Hero's range here? (1 Viewer)

[DrStrange]

We are playing 1-2 live, nine handed. It is moderately early. The game is revolving around Crazy and Crazy JR who are in full LAGtard mode and spewing money in every direction. I don't have data, but I'd say the average pot is well over $100.

Hero is under the gun and limps.
Crazy limps and then dashes off to the bathroom.
Crazy JR limps.
Two more limps bring us to a Semi-loose semi-Tagish player on the button who makes it $7 to go.
SB and BB fold.
Hero flats the $7.
Crazy isn't back from the bathroom but calls the extra $5 in a shout.
Crazy JR raises to $14 (perhaps he telegraphed his intention?)
Two limpers fold
Button calls $7 more.
Hero raises to a total of $54 (or $40 on top into a $56 pot)
Crazy just now returns to the table and folds.
Crazy Jr calls as does the Button.

Prior hands - Hero has tabled AJo , 99 and QQ played is a similar way. Limp preflop and then back raise when Crazy or Crazy JR raise preflop. Hero lost with AJ - all in preflop and lost with QQ when QQ lost to a set of tens. Both happening in the last 30 minutes or so.

Three to see a flop $176 in the pot, three way action.

Flop is

Hero jams all-in for $156. As Hero is counting down his all-in, several players observe that Hero's hand is shaking rather obviously. (that isn't common, almost a unique situation.) What type of range do we assign to Hero?

DrStrange

 

[Blaster]

The hand smells very much like pocket jacks, or possibly AKd... But ...

 

[Ben]

AdKd and AQ are my leading candidates, followed by (much less likely for various reasons) QQ, JJ, AJ, AdTd, or 44. That's probably it.

 

[inca911]

KTd might be shake-inducing exciting.

 

[bergs]

People that shake because of their holdings (and that's more rare than you think) have the nuts, not a draw. Hero has a set.

 

[Mr Tree]

People that shake because of their holdings (and that's more rare than you think) have the nuts, not a draw. Hero has a set.

^^^^this

It's an autonomic response where your body is releasing tension. It means they are no longer worried about losing the hand.

 

[bergs]

Or, if you're me and Guinness at a meet-up, and it's before 1pm, we're probably having detox issues.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Jacks, queens, Kings, aces, or AKdd.

 

[Anthony Martino]

looks like QQ, JJ or less likely AKdd as others have stated. I've actually only witnessed this hand shaking once, but when it happened the Villain had turned quad 4's and his body took over and he had no control over the spasms. KTdd could also likely induce this, but I just don't see Hero making that play preflop with that holding.

PRE-FLOP WEIGHT: QQ most likely, AKdd next and then JJ (i.e. most likely to make the preflop play with these holdings in this order)
POST-FLOP WEIGHT: QQ most likely, JJ next then AKdd (most likely to have this response and make this play on the flop with the holdings in this order)

 

[DrStrange]

No one has mentioned anything about the honesty of the tell. Hero doesn't normally shake in a rather pedestrian situation. This is a $176 pot to fight over with Hero having less than a pot sized bet left behind, nothing out of the ordinary.

Is it faked or real?

DrStrange

 

[Ben]

Is it faked or real?

Doesn't matter - villains shouldn't be reading into this anyway.

The other night I was cutting out a big river bluff and my hand involuntarily spasmed for a second - no clue why; it was neither normal nor intentional. Villain snap-folded. [emoji48]

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

No one has mentioned anything about the honesty of the tell. Hero doesn't normally shake in a rather pedestrian situation. This is a $176 pot to fight over with Hero having less than a pot sized bet left behind, nothing out of the ordinary.

Is it faked or real?

DrStrange

You're probably not going to make much of a living giving off false tells in a home game. Most ordinary joes aren't that perceptive. I'd be inclined to assume it's real, barring any known history of said hero.

 

[Mr Tree]

You're probably not going to make much of a living giving off false tells in a home game. Most ordinary joes aren't that perceptive. I'd be inclined to assume it's real, barring any known history of said hero.

^^^^this

I would assume casting tells to folks like crazy ain't gonna net you much.

 

[bergs]

The shake is really difficult to fake unless you've practiced it. The shake isn't always reliable tell though - some people shake all the time, others shake when action is on them and everyone is watching them, regardless of their holdings. I think with the amount of poker you've played, if everyone noticed it, it's probably either a fake tell or it's authentic and you need this guy.

 

[Psypher1000]

AdKd and AQ are my leading candidates, followed by (much less likely for various reasons) QQ, JJ, AJ, AdTd, or 44. That's probably it.

My gut says this, minus the 44 - I don't think he'd make that bet pre-flop with low pair.

 

[DrStrange]

*** results ***

{please keep in mind that one player to a hand is rarely observed at this game. All manner of table talk and speculation are allowed, perhaps encouraged. }

Hero is, as might be expected, putting on an act. More to see what happens and to see how people think. A best supporting actor nod goes to Crazy who makes several comments and even pick up Hero's wrist to demonstrate the shaking.

Our Old Man Coffee reads it like those of you in the PCF crew read it - Hero flopped a set.

Crazy Jr thinks Hero is bluffing and says as much. But he is fixated on the button - Crazy Jr and button have money left behind. You can see he wants to know if Button will telegraph his intentions because Crazy Jr wants to call. He goes so far as to cut out the exact call and does the old fake bet but button doesn't blink. Then he folds.

Button makes a little speech about Hero faking this knowing that a big shaking hand is strong, so he must be bluffing. Then Button calls with

Hero tables for what turns out to be the winning hand.

DrStrange