Hopefully I can chime in with some insight.
Over the last few years GTO has become increasingly prevalent in poker, especially online and at mid/high stakes.
Essentially, poker players are using software (Equilab and PIOsolver are the big two) to run complex simulations of poker hands in order to determine the amount of equity a player has in certain spots when facing a certain range of hands.
Sound complex? Basically, poker players use a computer program to “solve” a poker hand, providing invaluable, accurate information about the correct way to play a hand.
Why is this a big deal? Due to these programs we are learning that some of our previously held beliefs about poker strategy are wrong. Very wrong. Some situations that would have been an automatic fold for most of us, should instead be a call, or even a 3-bet.
Ok, but how is that GTO? Let me use a hand as an example.
Villain is on the BU with: XX
Hero is UTG: with Ah10h
Board: Ac5cQs (pot $200)
Villain goes all in for $200
As it stands, our pots odds are 2:1 or 33%
If villain’s range includes 66% value hands (hands that beat ours) and 33% bluffs, he is said to be playing GTO, as in his strategy is indifferent to our actions. He wins $200 if we always call, he wins $200 if we always fold.
If we only call when we have 33% equity in the hand, then we have an EV of 0. Nobody plays poker to have an expected value of 0, so we adjust our ratios of bluffs and value hands according to our opponents. This can be very profitable, but you need a considerable history with the player or a strategy based on strong evidence of their play.
Most players do this intuitively without realizing it:
“Mike likes to keep players honest on the river, so I need to have the goods if I bet on the river”
“John always plays with scared money, I should be bluffing him more often”
GTO is a good guideline for poker players, especially as a tool for teaching players to have balanced ranges. Everyone knows or plays with a self proclaimed “TAG” that will only play the super premiums. Mr. TAG has an unbalanced range of hands, and as a result has become extremely easy to exploit. If we know Mr. TAG will only play 3% of hands, we can simply hammer him on unfavorable flops, fold to overt aggression because he does not have enough bluffs in his range, and 3 bet out of position to diminish his positional advantage.
What does this have to do with the state of poker? IMO, it’s bad. The game has only gotten tougher and tougher. Information and strategy that took years and years of constant play can be learned in a month of diligent studying. Online coaching resources are getting better and better. NLHE is getting closer and closer to becoming a solved game. People like me spout off unintelligible nonsense about poker strategy on web forums and at the table, scaring off potential customers. (For the record, I NEVER talk about poker strategy when playing with others)
Fortunately, I don’t think live play will ever die off completely, but I definitely think that PLO or short deck hold em might take over as the most popular game in the future. One because the higher variance will allow less skilled players to win more frequently, and two PLO is far more complex than NLHE and the quality of coaching/resources have not caught up to that of hold em.
Alright, Thanks for reading.
Edit: Added a sentence, fixed some typos, corrected numbers about value hands/bluffs.
