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JJ Multi-Way (1 Viewer)

power13

power13

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Played this earlier in the week in Vegas 1/2.

Hero is in the SB with :jc::jh: (~$300 stack)

UTG is a 20s frat guy type who is definitely an amateur, might be his first time playing live. Limping a bunch and seeing too many flops. Sitting with ~$140.

Button is an older Asian woman who has been playing pretty passive. Limping, calling raises pre-flop but only showing down strong hands. Saw her limp 99 earlier and win a big pot with a set which she got aggressive on in a 6-way flop. She has given most of it back and has a little under $100.

UTG opens to $10, MP calls, Button calls. I reraise to $50, everybody calls without much hesitation. Pot is ~$195 after rake.

Flop is :ac::qc::7c:. I check. UTG looks very excited and goes all in for his remaining ~$90. MP folds. Button thinks for a short time and calls all in for her remaining ~$45.

Action on me and while I'm figuring out pot/stacks and thinking, UTG says to the dealer "do I turn my hand over now." Seems very excited.

Hero?
 
I fold. You are drawing to a flush, but not the nut flush. It is very likely either player holds the :kc: and your draw might be dead other than the side pot
 
For the sake of argument let's say the Kc is not in either hand. So then hero is getting about 4.5:1 on a draw he will complete 35% of the time.

So rough math, I think you have to assume the Kc is out about half the time given this action to even think about folding. And if the short stack has the Kc, then you still have the equity of drawing to the effective nuts in the side pot.

I think it's too good a price to fold, against a larger shove, it's a different story, obviously.
 
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Also I am thinking more about pf, how many kcxc is he opening utg pf? You hold Jc, so kc-tc? Kc-9c? He could have a set which is still an okay call for you. He could have exactly Ax-kc, which would be about the worst case for you.

I find it hard to believe that utg has a flush, the short stack may, but then you still stand to win a side pot.
 
Fold.

The pot is only $330, a little low to be calling it "nearly $400." Hero has to call $90, so pot odds are 11:3, or about 3.67:1. The small side pot is more or less negligible, especially because the probable stronger player is in it for the whole thing.

It's more complicated than this, but let's consider the two basic cases.

1. If the draw is good and no one else holds a club, it's about 35% to come in.
2. If the draw is no good (i.e., the :kc: is out and/or someone already has the nut flush), this hand is basically dead already.

Supposing that each case is equally likely—though I think the :kc: being out is more likely than not, especially with two players in and UTG practically radiating strength—it's a combined equity of 17.5%, or about a 4.71:1 dog. Clear fold. Even giving a couple extra percent to account for the possibility that a jack would be good (and would stand up) doesn't nudge that figure close enough to 3.67:1 to make it a call.

Looking at some of the complications, I actually think your chances here are worse than 4.71:1. Based on the action, there's probably a greater than usual chance of at least one club between your two opponents, even if neither has the :kc:. Every club that's out cuts into the main strength of your hand under case #1, and you're already underwater.
 
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Yeah I see where I went wrong, I had an extra 90 going in on the flop. 90 to win 330 is the correct math which makes it tougher.

Though I disagree as to the player in for all of it being the stronger one, by the op's description, this guy is the looser player It's the person calling off the last 45 that's the nit.

Let's consider the pf action again. With Ac, Qc, and Jc accounted for, how many hands is utg maniac really opening with the Kc? Has to be the 3 ax-kc combos and maybe give him the combo of kc-tc since op describes him as loose. Hard to give him kk since that seems like an obvious 4 bet shove pf. I think that's probably the limit of hands containing the Kc for utg bunless we think he's opening early down to kc-8c or something?

So for hands that don't contain the Kc we have a minimum for 9 outs. Hard to give him credit for AA or qq since that seems like an obvious 4 bet shove pf like kk.

He can have AQ I would say if he isn't 4 betting that pf, but then he can't have a club and we actually have 11 outs, but we also have to fade the 4 cards that make full houses. He can have 77 as well, we still have 11 outs against that (but again mitigated by more full house or quad outs.).

He can have AK, but of all the AK he can have only 3 of the 9 combos contain Kc. 2/3 of the time our 11 outs are all live.

This is an obvious fold if the odds were only 2:1 without the Kc. But given we have an overlay, I think we have to consider how often the Kc is really out? I think the Kc is only present in a small percentage of utg's holdings, and the op describes him as loose, it's not so easy for me to fold at 2.6-1, and when I had the math wrong, I felt it was a clear call at 3.5-1.

Nit in the middle might have holdings with Kc too, but I think we can come up with enough other possibilities as well, and when the nit has us crushed, we still get to draw to the side pot a percentage of the time.
 
Asian lady "calling raises pre-flop but only showing down strong hands." Does this mean she is always going to showdown when she calls raises and is showing strong hands, or she is calling lots of pre-flop raises and folding often, only showing down when she has it? If the latter, could she have called pre-flop with, say, Tc9c, in which case your draw is live, but to two less outs?
 
I would also raise more pre flop. You’re out of position and 3 callers ahead of you. Once one person calls the $50 it’s very easy for the other two to call and with JJ in the sb, you want to get heads up.

As played I’d save your money and fold. You’re most certainly behind right now and there is a good chance you are drawing dead/someone already has the flush and your outs are diminished.
 
Thanks for all the input everyone. I was considering most of the points discussed and going back and forth. I'll give my thought process at the time and then the results.

Based on the behavior of UTG, I was very confident he had (what he thought was) a big made hand, not a big draw. So that would definitely be AQ and 77, probably QQ (he wasn't aggressive enough I think to be 4B anything other than AA and KK), and outside chance of KTs though I think he would have limped that PF. So almost certainly behind but drawing live. If the button wasn't in the hand or had folded this would have been a straightforward call given the pot odds.

The button call made it more complex. I would give her all the hands of the button, plus Tc9c, 9c8c, and 8c7c, as well as two big cards with the king of clubs. Given how she had passively called bigger hands pre flop, I felt like all the way up to AxKc was definitely in her range.

So best case scenario I am behind against 2 hands with odds to improve, though some of those scenarios would give me less outs if button already had a flush. But it felt like there were so many scenarios where I was practically drawing dead -- I was behind UTG but improving would improve the button and I'd still lose. In that case I was chasing to win a very small side pot.

I made an agonized fold, and UTG quickly tabled 77, button didn't show.

Turn was :kc: (doh!), river blank.

Button mucked, saying she had a "big hand." I asked her if she had AQ later and she wouldn't say.

UTG insta-racked up with the biggest smile on his face I think I've ever seen.

I was kicking myself but thought I was being results oriented and probably wouldn't have thought about this hand if I wouldn't have gotten there. But I went home and plugged my ranges into an equity simulator and it said I had about 19% equity vs. needing 21% based on pot odds. But this is a pretty narrow range to assign, If I just took KcTx out of button's PF calling range then it was a call. Also if my range was wrong and button was calling with AK there without the king of clubs then there were a bunch of combos I didn't factor in that would have made this an easy call. But overall a close spot. The thing I found most interesting was I don't think I've ever been able to confidently put players on such a precise range, so that was my consolation prize!
 
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power13 said:
Thanks for all the input everyone. I was considering most of the points discussed and going back and forth. I'll give my thought process at the time and then the results.

Based on the behavior of UTG, I was very confident he had (what he thought was) a big made hand, not a big draw. So that would definitely be AQ and 77, probably QQ (he wasn't aggressive enough I think to be 4B anything other than AA and KK), and outside chance of KTs though I think he would have limped that PF. So almost certainly behind but drawing live. If the button wasn't in the hand or had folded this would have been a straightforward call given the pot odds.

The button call made it more complex. I would give her all the hands of the button, plus Tc9c, 9c8c, and 8c7c, as well as two big cards with the king of clubs. Given how she had passively called bigger hands pre flop, I felt like all the way up to AxKc was definitely in her range.

So best case scenario I am behind against 2 hands with odds to improve, though some of those scenarios would give me less outs if button already had a flush. But it felt like there were so many scenarios where I was practically drawing dead -- I was behind UTG but improving would improve the button and I'd still lose. In that case I was chasing to win a very small side pot.

I made an agonized fold, and UTG quickly tabled 77, button didn't show.

Turn was :kc: (doh!), river blank.

Button mucked, saying she had a "big hand." I asked her if she had AQ later and she wouldn't say.

UTG insta-racked up with the biggest smile on his face I think I've ever seen.

I was kicking myself but thought I was being results oriented and probably wouldn't have thought about this hand if I wouldn't have gotten there. But I went home and plugged my ranges into an equity simulator and it said I had about 19% equity vs. needing 21% based on pot odds. But this is a pretty narrow range to assign, If I just took KcTx out of button's PF calling range then it was a call. Also if my range was wrong and button was calling with AK there without the king of clubs then there were a bunch of combos I didn't factor in that would have made this an easy call. But overall a close spot. The thing I found most interesting was I don't think I've ever been able to confidently put players on such a precise range, so that was my consolation prize!
Click to expand...

I really like the way you thought this out. At least seeking Kc on the turn gives you some confirmation on the opponents holdings, albeit after the fact.

I didn't run it though a range evaluator, but it was surprising to me how infrequently utg actually has the Kc in his range given the action when you think about it.

On the other hand, the button complicates things because she can have anything except a bluff. But my instinct was if her range is indeed wide, while made flushes are surely part of it, there are many other things that are part of the range as well.

Point is, I think you went about finding the answer the right way, with in the moment and after the fact.

In the end the decision is close enough where you can't fault either way, and the decision is more complicated than assumptions about whether or not you are beat.
 
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Poker Zombie said:
Without reading anything more than the title "JJ Multi-Way", I would snap-fold preflop.

100 ways to play Jacks, all of them are wrong.
Click to expand...

I've lost all my stack with JJ at Flamingos in May. Though I flopped a third one.
All in called by two guys hunting diamond and heart flush. 6 of heart on river of course!
 
I just shove. I might not win, but at least I won't get outplayed. :LOL: :laugh:
 

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