One or Two Street Mistake? (1 Viewer)

[tripleflatbarrel]

Played a somewhat interesting hand and think I made 1 big mistake. Play along and see if you spot it as well, or feel more/less mistakes are present.

Background

Playing at a new game started up by one of my games regulars. Since I haven't been hosting this year with a new baby in the house, some others have started up their own games. Never played with anyone at the table aside from host (V).

This was, by far, the tightest table I've ever played at. Very little preflop raising, not limp happy, and pre flop raises were clearing out limpers at a high %. Seeing this, I adjusted and played the most wide open I think I ever have. I built my stack up through stealing blinds and cbets. Had yet to show anything down. The only resistance I met was from the host, who seemed to have opened up his game as well. He is typically about as TAG as me, probably even tighter post flop. He seemed to take note of my high PFR% and was flatting my opens in position somewhat wide.

2 hands from session
w V prior:

1- I open A9s from EP and V calls. Fire two streets on AJxx board. Board is very coordinated by river so I check, V bets 3/4 pot, I fold the A face up. V says good fold.(wasn't happy about anything I did in this hand)

2- Almost exact same scenario and board except I have AJ, fire all 3 streets V folds river. Says he would have bet if I didn't .

OTTH

Folds to H (150BB) on BTN w/ :3h
H bets 5BB
SB folds
V in SB calls (covers)

I was raising anywhere from 4x to 6x, typically larger from EP but was all over the place in sizing to keep up the maniac story I was telling.

Flop (11 BB)
V checks
H bets 8 BB
V calls

I'll stop here and continue after some input.
Ok with this so far?

 

[Jimulacrum]

Looks good to me. Villain is trying to play counter-aggressive, figuring you're often betting very light and he can snap you off with marginal hands (or even floats).

Given your example hands, I think you should straight value-bet anything of this strength against him. Come out with 20 BB on the turn if he checks, which seems likely based on his apparent strategy.

 

[DrStrange]

Looks fine to me so far.

What is Hero's plan for a flushing turn?

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Another spade and I'm probably checking. Then sigh calling a river bet, value betting a river check (on a blank)

 

[tsossong18]

I agree with everyone else, and think your plan sounds good as well. He's calling wider so flushes certainly possible. Being that the K and Q of spades both came out, suited connectors make sense for flushes, nut flush, but not any K6, Q8 etc. for flushes. Could be playing those hands w/ other suits though and connected w/ that board as well. Some sort of draw/pair w/ draw make a lot of sense in which case you're doing well and your plan sounds solid against.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Aside from the obvious spades, the only thing I don't love about having a set on this board is that if the board pairs, we'll end up boat/boat more often than usual.

However, with the check-call from Villain, it's reasonable to figure that KQ isn't super-likely, and with no reraise preflop, he probably doesn't have QQ or KK either. If the board pairs, we should be good to go.

 

[tsossong18]

I agree. I ruled out both KQ, QQ, KK as well. Unless he's is being very very tricky which doesn't seem too likely. If he were to catch trips on this board w/ no spades rolling off you could make some plays to hurt his stack. Everything seems in your favor unless he is being ultra tricky

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

Turn (27BB)



V checks
H bets ~20BB
V calls

 

[Jimulacrum]

Aside from OP's subject line, I'm still feeling pretty good about this. A set or a straight should have raised at some point by now, so we should be good going into the river. Villain is feeling like a one-pair hand that thinks he's checking into us for value. Gonna be gross if Villain backs into Broadway or something. Let's try to catch a 3.

 

[DrStrange]

Looks fine to me still.

 

[Ben]

Seems fine; the only thing I want to nitpick is the 5x open OTB at a squeaky-tight table (you want villains to call with a wider range from the blinds, regardless of your hand - I'd be going 3.5-4x for sure.)

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

River (67BB)



V bets 30 BB

Hero?

 

[Jimulacrum]

This bet is suspicious, but I think we have to call. If he caught set-over-set or turned the gutshot on us, so be it.

I'd have a tough time justifying a raise here. There don't seem to be many hands we beat that he would bet on the river and would call with, compared to the number of hands that beat us or are total bluffs.

 

[DrStrange]

I agree about the villain's range being polarized. If he were a LAGtard I'd be all over a raise. But a tight TAG with that line looks a little fishy. Wouldn't be shocked to see a busted draw bluff.

Hero's line looks like a top pair kind of hand. Could be two pair. Yet villain bets half pot. Villain could be playing KQ/KJ/QJ and thinking two pair is good. . . .

The raise looks tempting but I think I will be content with a call. Hero is going to win less and lose more if he makes a raise here. But it is close for me. . .

DrStrange

 

[AWenger]

V leads out 30bb on river after H bet 20bb on Turn. Seems like a 'blocker' type bet to me, where V has a good a hand but doesnt want to face a raise.

I'm leaning toward a raise here to get some value from our flopped set. QJ or KJ hands seem likely and just might call.

Maybe a raise on the smallish side - say 2.5x the 30 bb bet.

If he does have AT, we'll find out.

If he has QQ or JJ, he might not be likely to reraise b/c he has to respect possible straight.

 

[bergs]

I think you played it fine. I think it's very likely that villain has 2 pair here (KQ, KJ, QJ...and for some reason I'm leaning towards QJ) and was relieved when the flush didn't get there and popped the river. With your newfound maniac image you could very well be barreling on draws.

If it's set over set or he hit a gutshot, then so be it...I think you have to call that river bet.

 

[Ben]

Shove. This looks like a blocker bet, and in my experience villains tend to call it off anyway after their blocker bet doesn't work (i.e. they get raised.) Villain also has a lot of bluffs in his range here and probably knows that, so may be able to convince himself that you could be re-bluffing given your history. Blah blah blah - when it comes down to it, you're almost never beat here, and when that's the case, you should put it in, even when you think you're almost never getting called either. You'd be surprised...

 

[bergs]

Actually, I agree with Ben. I think he has 2 pair or AK often enough here that you have to shove to get max value.

 

[tripleflatbarrel]

After a brief tank, Hero crying calls. V announces "straight" and rolls over .



After writing the hand out and having more time to think about it, I'm not so sure anything could have been done differently.

I'm a little surprised V didn't go for a check raise on the river.

Definitely making a note that V plays even the monster draws pretty passively.

 

[AWenger]

So, you are playing somewhat maniacally, flop a set on a wet board, board runs out fairly dry with only a gutshot hitting, and you still have 58% of your stack (lost 63 of your 150 BBs).

You, sir, lost the miminum!

(With maybe just one small exception of your 5 BB raise ro start. A smaller starting raise means a smaller pot at the end - for better or worse.)

 

[AWenger]

and think I made 1 big mistake.

What was your mistake then? Was it staying to play too long at a table full of nits?

 

[DrStrange]

The title of the thread likely biases the replies.

If anything, I'd judge hero was too passive on the river rather than over aggressive on the turn. There is never a point in the hand where I would have recommended Hero take a safer line. The river is an interesting decision. Not call vs fold, but rather call vs raise.

Hero's table image make monster hands potentially much more profitable in his hands than in the hands of ABC TAGs. This hand could have played the same way with villain being the loser holding two pair or top pair / top kicker.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Hero's table image make monster hands potentially much more profitable in his hands than in the hands of ABC TAGs.

It does, and that's one of the reasons it's my favorite style to play when the field allows for it.

The extra profit you get is usually from players who (a) abandon raised pots on the flop, (b) call your post-flop raises light expecting you to be bluffing, or (c) make frustration shoves into you when you're much stronger than expected.

But a key thing is that there are red flags too. You can't automatically play for stacks every time you have an actual hand. A major part of the strategy is having good control over your opponents, so you have to be wary of unexpected or unusual moves.

Like this hand, why does Villain make a smallish bet on the end after check-calling the whole way? The 6 probably didn't help him. It's not a frustration shove. It also doesn't read like KQ or KJ, which we should expect him to check-raise on the flop or turn on such a wet board. One pair isn't generally betting for value here either, with the coordinated KQJ on board.

So what is it? Looks like a bluff with a busted flush draw (straight draws either made it or have one pair) or a big made hand looking for value. With this big a hand and getting better than 3:1, we're not folding, but a raise? Nahhhhhhhh. We'll end up winning the same as calling when we're ahead, but losing our stack when we're behind. Flat-call, live to c-bet another day.