PAHWM: 10NL ACR Blitz: How to play JJ? (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

Only 16 hands on V so HUD stats not relevant.
Hero RFI 2.2 BB in LJ with JJ. SB & BB both call.

Flop doesnt hit my range but I am uncapped and I have an overpair. SB & BB X to me and I bet small, 1/4 pot.
SB folds and BB X/R to about 4.5x.
Hero?

 

[Legend5555]

Seems like a pretty clear call and evaluate. The 78 and 89 with backdoors are there. Even T9, QT, KT, AT are probably supposed to check raise here against 1/4 pot at some frequency. We wanna keep all that in and not bloat against the value hands like the sets and 56s. We have position, it will be "easy" to play this going forward.

We are blocking some of the double backdoor stuff that might get out of line, but that's of minor note I think.

 

[boltonguy]

Hero does think that there are plenty of bluffs here for V as well as TPTK and 66, 55.
Not raising here as v has the nut advantage (55/66 in range). We decide to call and evaluate.
Turn gives us a set and V bets half pot. Hero calls - I dont think anyone is going to disagree with calling at this price with this hand.

River makes the flush and V jams. Hero?

 

[LaBestiole]

I am definitely raising his half-pot bet on the turn, putting around 30-35bb. Same with most of my remaining sets of 55 and 66. Bluff that line with some A5/6s or K5/6s.
You need to deny his equity and on that turn, you have the tools to do it.
Also you don’t need to slowplay in this spot. Slowplaying depends on the capability of your opponent to make a large portion of your range indifferent between folding & calling, i.e. turn your hands into bluffcatchers, with big bets. Your opponent can’t do that on most rivers, because most rivers on that texture will give you new strong hands.

As played, after his shove, it’s a close call and very vilain-dependant. It’s easy for an aggro-fish to x/r the flop with too many bluffs and carry that bluffing range to the river. In that case i would call.
But if vilain is a bit decent, expect a lot of flushes on the river, less shove with the 55 & 66 that slows down, and he would need to turn some showdown-value hand into bluffs, which is counter intuitive. So i think hero could nitfold in that case here…
With no info i think i rng 50/50 between fold/call.

 

[BGinGA]

Raise Villain's turn bet, and as played, call the river. I'm expecting a set-over-set win, with a few ATh losses.

 

[boltonguy]

@LaBestiole & @BGinGA if I raise turn don't i risk folding our villain's bluffs that would otherwise continue piling $ in on the river?
We can definitely get worse calls from 55/66 now that we have top set but I think there are fewer worse set combos than bluff combos.
I didnt consider raising because if V is bluffing I want him to continue.

 

[LaBestiole]

Well, on the turn, you can call these « bluffs » but a portion of these hands will hit their river-card and « become » values. So if you make these hands fold on the turn or at least lower their implied-odds by putting more money in the pot on the turn (and therefore less money on the river), well that’s a decent achievement.
You would be right to do so if vilain was bluffing way too many busted flushdraw on the river in case no heart comes. I doubt it is the case.

 

[Legend5555]

I think by jamming turn you can rep a lot of turned draws FWIW. Sure you get some of the weather draws to fold, but ask the strong value is calling 100% here. And the stores draws may not even fold 100%. I don't know what the GTO solution would be here, but there are SOOOOOOOO many bluffs that have good equity that there lots of rivers you won't like. And the stack size is awkward such that he is just going to jam for over pot on a lot of rivers putting you in a gross spot.

As played, I have to imagine JJ is in your top 38% (MDF) of hands you get here with given that you will also have all the overpairs and likely not so much 89s. So in theory you have to call if villain is structuring correctly.

 

[boltonguy]

Hero thought about what V could be jamming for value here: TT/55/66/89/flush
I take TT out of range as it really should be a squeeze preflop vs a flat from the BB IMHO.
55 & 66 we now crush with our set of Jacks. I dont see any way V gets to the river with 77 on this board/action.
AT would really only be hearts IMHO = AhTh and is one combo.
I dont see a BDFD unless it is AT/34/68/89 hearts which is a small number of combos relative to other value hands and bluffs (non heart straight draws).
So I called and scooped. His choice of hand and line seems to defy logic. I can see the jam as he's definitely not winning at SD but the X/R and turn bets seem spewy IMHO.

 

[Legend5555]

Hero thought about what V could be jamming for value here: TT/55/66/89/flush
I take TT out of range as it really should be a squeeze preflop vs a flat from the BB IMHO.
55 & 66 we now crush with our set of Jacks. I dont see any way V gets to the river with 77 on this board/action.
AT would really only be hearts IMHO = AhTh and is one combo.
I dont see a BDFD unless it is AT/34/68/89 hearts which is a small number of combos relative to other value hands and bluffs (non heart straight draws).
So I called and scooped. His choice of hand and line seems to defy logic. I can see the jam as he's definitely not winning at SD but the X/R and turn bets seem spewy IMHO.

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I think it's a good play with KQs with the backdoor since he can have 56, 55, 66. With off suit though? Yeah. Not great. But if he's going to do the flop x/r as played, then barreling the J turn seems like it's mandatory.