PAHWM 25NL 6-max on ACR (1 Viewer)

[boltonguy]

Taking a break from Blitz / Zoom fast fold format to play 6-max with some worse players
Hero in LJ RFI to 2.5 BB. This is a standard size but a bit wider than I normally open from LJ at a 6-handed table.
I think I have a post-flop skill advantage against this player pool so am OK with opening wider here.
Folds to V in SB who calls and BB folds. Only have 67 hands on V so HUD stats aren't useful but he is one of the two loose, aggressive and bad players at this table.
Flop comes low with a paired board and V X.
Hero?

 

[FDLmold]

PPorn checked?

 

[Jimulacrum]

Bet 4 BB.

 

[Senzrock]

Bet 1.5-2bb

 

[boltonguy]

PPorn checked?

Yes sorry - OOP player X to Hero. Thats what I meant by "V X."

 

[boltonguy]

Hero decides to bet 1/3 pot for protection and equity denial.
22 is unlikely in V's range and there are no draws available. Also unlikely are better 8x as we see two of the 8s.
Out of curiosity I put this in GTO+ and it does prefer a larger size but unsurprisingly this hand is a mix across 33%, 75% and 125% so we are indifferent to sizing. As long as we dont check here I think we're doing ok I do think that as this flop doesnt favor my range we should generally be going with a larger size. I think size is inversely proportional to frequency and this is a lower frequency flop for our range.
Hero prefers to bet smaller here to keep V's calling range wider including lower PPs.

Looking at GTO+ the smaller hero bets, V's calling range is wider and the higher % of the time that V decides to X/R which is what happens: V X/R to 8BB. Hero?

 

[boltonguy]

Just to illustrate the difference in V's response to Hero's bet size. So by betting smaller V is continuing wider but we are being X/R more frequently. I did not think we would be seeing V X/R more frequently with a smaller sizing at the time - that didnt play into my decision - but it does make sense. I only mention it as it is interesting and it is what happened. My goal was to have V continue wider, not to increase V's X/R frequency.

My thinking at the time was that I have a decent hand and am likely ahead but the larger I bet and get called my opponent's range strengthens and I start to become likely behind. I wanted protection / equity denial which is generally accomplished by a small bet (according to Brokos' Play Optimal Poker) and didnt want to strengthen V's calling range much. Perhaps this logic is sound as 8X is the hand (in addition to 55, 66, 77) that the solver bets this size most often. Same logic also applies to those PPs IMHO want protection/equity denial but dont want to strong a calling range when called.

Looking at V's calling range below as our bet size gets larger V's calling range does strengthen to hands that are either ahead (better 8X and A2/99/TT) or have good equity (AQo & 98s/KJs with BDFD).

Hero bets 2BB (33% pot). V's response: Fold 65.2% / Call 16.9% / Raise 17.9%

Hero bets 4.5BB (75% pot). V's response: Fold 73.9% / Call 17.8% / Raise 8.3%

Hero bets 7.5BB (125% pot). V's response: Fold 79.3% / Call 16.2% / Raise 4.5%

 

[boltonguy]

V X and Hero bets 2BB. V X/R to 8BB. Hero?

 

[FDLmold]

Call 6bb into 16bb. We have position and close the action.

 

[warma]

A2?

Call.

 

[DrStrange]

Does Hero have a plan for the rest of the hand? Folding to a turn bet? How about a river bet?

Calling the flop check / raise isn't the problem. The problem is the next two bets, if they come.

Villain seems loose aggressive, and even with a sample of 68 hands Hero's read shouldn't be that wrong. Or so we hope. Is Hero calling this down to showdown?

 

[Jimulacrum]

Fold to the check-raise.

Loose-aggressive though he may be, unless this dude has been spewing flop to finish like a drunkard, don't expect J8 to be good when it matters.

Maybe this is a cheap stab, in which case you lose an 8 BB pot that you shouldn't be eager to defend to the river anyway. This isn't the kind of hand you can call / call / call to showdown and expect to win often. Even if you're ahead, you could easily get shit on by a random overcard, and it'll be hard to give him credit for it.

The times it's not a cheap stab, you're way behind, and it will cost you a lot more than 8 BB to get to showdown. He may not always triple-barrel bluff to the end, but he will probably triple-barrel most of the hands that love a 2-8-8 flop, if he understands how to use his LAG image at all.

~Alternatively~

You could re-pop it and see how he responds. If your small peek into his play shows frequent check-raise bluffs, a reraise might get him off a lot of random, annoying hands (QT, AK) and even fold out a couple hands better than yours (mainly bigger 8s).

Even just the fact that you bet small could have enticed him to check-raise. It's certainly in the realm of possibility that he's fucking around.

But it'll cost you 20+ BB to run that play, and this is already a lesson in keeping small ball small ball. There are better spots against a LAG.

 

[OfficerLovejoy]

Call the c/r.
I'm only folding the flop to a super nit here.

You have position and it's cheap to call vs a loose aggressive player who would frequently c/r low paired boards with way worse hands than yours.
No reason to make a decision for turn and river as of right now since the run out and his bet sizes will make a difference.

 

[boltonguy]

I think @OfficerLovejoy nailed it. After watching this guy play 67 hands I have characterized him as "one of the two loose, aggressive and bad players at this table." The board doesn't favor my range so it is not surprising to see an aggressive player in the blinds attack what looks like a weak (sizing) cbet here. I didn't bet small purposefully to induce a raise but can easily see how that could have been the outcome. He could be doing this with ATC based on observing his prior play so I am definitely calling here and evaluating turn with a general plan to call down as long as overcards dont come.

I will add that I didnt consider raising here as I dont want to fold out this guy's bluffs. Against a "normal" opponent I would consider raising and you can see below that GTO+ has this as a mix. But raising and getting a fold would be a bad outcome against this particular V IMHO.

Hero calls the X/R. The turn improves our equity, is low and doesn't complete any draws. V leads for about 2/3 pot. hero?

 

[Jimulacrum]

The 6 BB to call on the flop was cheap, but it leaves his hand unpredictable and gets you hooked into a big pot with a so-so hand (and one I wouldn't be eager to use as a triple-barrel bluff catcher).

If he keeps going, you're going to be paying in the 50–70 BB range to get to showdown, and this was predictable back when you only had 5 BB invested in a 16 BB pot. The stronger his hand, the more likely he makes you pay the whole way.

But continue paying him off on the turn, I guess. Maybe the flush draw will pan out.

 

[OfficerLovejoy]

We pick up lots of equity should we be behind and if we were ahead it's unlikely we got outdrawn.

Nothing to do here but call.

We still beat his bluffs and if we raise, we fold out those and are pretty much committed to calling off if he shoves which he might only do if we're behind.

 

[Eriks]

~Alternatively~

You could re-pop it and see how he responds. If your small peek into his play shows frequent check-raise bluffs, a reraise might get him off a lot of random, annoying hands (QT, AK) and even fold out a couple hands better than yours (mainly bigger 8s).

The 6 BB to call on the flop was cheap, but it leaves his hand unpredictable and gets you hooked into a big pot with a so-so hand (and one I wouldn't be eager to use as a triple-barrel bluff catcher).

If he keeps going, you're going to be paying in the 50–70 BB range to get to showdown, and this was predictable back when you only had 5 BB invested in a 16 BB pot. The stronger his hand, the more likely he makes you pay the whole way.

But continue paying him off on the turn, I guess. Maybe the flush draw will pan out.

Yes, by 3-betting the flop we will probably get perfect info; if he continues we’re toast and if he folds we had the best hand. But if we’re ahead he has a maximum of 6 outs and probably tons of hands that have less.

Calling and keeping villain’s range wide seems best on both flop and turn. Especially when we pick up the flushdraw.

Even just the fact that you bet small could have enticed him to check-raise. It's certainly in the realm of possibility that he's fucking around.

This fact makes an argument for calling not raising imo

 

[boltonguy]

@OfficerLovejoy again I agree 100%. Hero calls and binks the flush on the river.
Hero cant think of a hand that V could have played this way that hit the flush except suited broadways like KcQc / KcTc. Any of AcKc / AcQc / AcTc probably would have 3! pre, so really limited concern about V rivering a better flush. If he has one of the 2 combos of A2s or a better 8X we are now ahead.

V leads again for about 2/3 pot. Hero?

 

[Eriks]

I could see something like A3/A5 (weird flats from the sb though) of clubs raising the flop with over/backdoor flush/backdoor straight. Could also have 66, 88 (which we block) or 22 (but who c/rs quads?)

More or equally likely are T9/97/75 of clubs, A2s. They would all have to call off the last 30bbs if we shove. And of course some stubborn bluffs that will just fold. I would shove

 

[OfficerLovejoy]

So first we gotta ask ourselfes: can we call?
We sure can. We arrived here with an unlikely backdoor flush and are certainly close to the top of our range. We beat a lot of bluffs and even some thin and thick value he might be betting the river with.

Folding is obviously out of the question.

Next question: Can we raise?
I think we can and we should. We still beat some of his value and we're blocking most of what he can beat us with (88, higher flushes).
The most likely hand he could arrive here with that beats us would be 66, so that's 2 combos. One combo of 88. He can not have A2 of clubs and A8 of clubs is also impossible. 44 would probably not bet the turn for this sizing.
He might have bluffed with a savage backdoor like Ac3c on the flop but if that is the case, so be it. Coolers happen.

Can he have value that we beat?
He can have pretty much any deuce that he would play this way. He could have a (preflop) slow played overpair, maybe blocking clubs. He can have lower flushes although not that many that would make sense with his flop play.

What does he think what we have?
Our line screams overpair. Everything about this call down looks like AA-JJ. The river shove might give him pause but we certainly get called by a 2, all his lower flushes and his AA/KK that - unlikely as it may be - he might've arrived here with. Even more likely if he he is holding a club in addition to his overpair.
I think this is a profitable shove, especially vs a loose agressive player.

I assume he had 66 and that is why you posted this hand?

 

[Jimulacrum]

Just call on the end. Villain continuing to bet suggests he's either not afraid of the flush or can only win by betting, and neither of those cases calls for a raise.

 

[Jimulacrum]

This fact makes an argument for calling not raising imo

I see your point, but my point is that a larger initial bet would have been better.

We only have 67 hands on this guy to suggest he's a LAG. That could just be random hand selection or him playing back at Hero (who is leaning LAGgy himself).

This is all to say that Hero doesn't have enough data on Villain to justify inducing a triple-barrel bluff catch, and Villain simultaneously doesn't have enough data on Hero to justify making a triple-barrel bluff.

Doesn't make it impossible that it would happen, but without having actually seen the pattern, it's a little crazy to plan to invest up to 50–100 BB in a pot that started as a blind steal / position raise with a marginal hand.

 

[boltonguy]

Just call on the end. Villain continuing to bet suggests he's either not afraid of the flush or can only win by betting, and neither of those cases calls for a raise.

I'm with @Jimulacrum on the river decision. His line screams strength and I think he's very possibly bluffing.
If I'm right he folds to the shove and I see no additional value. If I'm wrong I'm possibly jamming into a stronger hand.

Solver does jam this hand 10% of the time:

Hero does call and did get lucky with his read on V. Simply spewtastic!

 

[Jimulacrum]

I'm with @Jimulacrum on the river decision. His line screams strength and I think he's very possibly bluffing.
If I'm right he folds to the shove and I see no additional value. If I'm wrong I'm possibly jamming into a stronger hand.

Solver does jam this hand 10% of the time:

View attachment 1099315

Hero does call and did get lucky with his read on V. Simply spewtastic!

View attachment 1099317

Having seen this hand, I would now support setting up a triple-barrel bluff-catch against this player.

In fact, you can probably turn this dude into an independent revenue stream without ever raising him.

Lucky table.

 

[Eriks]

I see your point, but my point is that a larger initial bet would have been better.

We only have 67 hands on this guy to suggest he's a LAG. That could just be random hand selection or him playing back at Hero (who is leaning LAGgy himself).

This is all to say that Hero doesn't have enough data on Villain to justify inducing a triple-barrel bluff catch, and Villain simultaneously doesn't have enough data on Hero to justify making a triple-barrel bluff.

Doesn't make it impossible that it would happen, but without having actually seen the pattern, it's a little crazy to plan to invest up to 50–100 BB in a pot that started as a blind steal / position raise with a marginal hand.

The value range is so ridiculously small in that spot that I would look at it from the opposite perspective and only fold if I had specific info of villain’s style

Edit: on the flop

 

[boltonguy]

Having seen this hand, I would now support setting up a triple-barrel bluff-catch against this player.

In fact, you can probably turn this dude into an independent revenue stream without ever raising him.

Lucky table.

Yeah there was a second guy at this table who was just as bad but sadly I didnt end up in a big hand with him ...

 

[Jimulacrum]

The value range is so ridiculously small in that spot that I would look at it from the opposite perspective and only fold if I had specific info of villain’s style

Edit: on the flop

I agree to a point, now that it's confirmed that he's a spewer.

That point is somewhere higher than J8 on a 228 flop, though. Hero's hand's a little weaker and more vulnerable than I prefer for whale fishing.

 

[Jimulacrum]

But man, if you can reliably get him to turn stupid with a ~0% hand just by making a small flop bet, that's a gold mine.