Preflop suggests that BB does not have AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ in range and we block many of these combos.
X/R on flop suggests 22, 44 or FD maybe to the nuts (AXs) or maybe KXs or SCs. X/R with a set on a FD board makes sense as does a combo draw. Maybe KQo but that would be a wide X/R IMHO.
Turn play suggests that either turn doesn’t adversely impact V’s perceived chance of wining the hand (set) or it improves his hand (KsXs). Or he’s playing his draw aggressively as he doesn’t really otherwise have equity (AsXs, SCs).
So on the turn V’s range is polarized and bet size aligns with that:
22: 3 combos
44: 3 combos
KQo: 3 combos
AsXs: 9 combos excluding AKs and AQs
KsXs: 9 combos
SCs: 16 combos
So much, much more likely a FD than a set based on combos.
If V has a set (6 combos), we are behind with 4 outs (2K + 2Q) or 8% equity.
If V is on a draw (34 combos), we are ahead and V has about 8 outs to improve. In the case of AsXs or SCs Ks gives us a boat when V makes his flush.
We chop with 3 combos.
Hero has just under $25. Pot is about $22 I think facing an $11 bet. Calling leaves him $14 looking at a pot of about $33.
A raise wont get better hands (sets) to fold but I think it is likely the draws will call. Given the strength V has shown I dont think we have FE. Jamming is definitely an option here but I think it removes our positional advantage on the river and doesnt get us more money only higher variance. I think a jam gives V over 3:1 odds so he is calling (pot = $47, $14 to call). Is this what we want?
If we flat and V jams spade rivers we can fold (except on Ks) - so 16% of the time we save $14 vs a jam.
If we flat and V jams non-spade river we can call and lose to a set or bluff-catch. This is equivalent to us jamming with this river.
If we flat and V jams non-spade river we can fold. We save $14 vs a jam. Maybe V is bluffing but IMHO not likely at these stakes.
If we flat and V checks a non-spade river we can bet for value but V likely folds. In this case we leave $14 on the table versus a jam.
Honestly I know stacks arent deep but in position against a polarized range I'm flatting here as I dont think a jam has any FE and I want to play my position on the river. At these stakes on Ignition 85%+ of the time they have the set when they bet like this. I have jammed into the nuts too many times. My style is lower variance than jamming here ...
Edit: just put this in PokerSnowie and on turn Snowie jams 87% and calls 13% so a mixed strategy. Snowie calls jams on all rivers, 4x, 2x, even spades which IMHO is optimistic at these stakes. Probably owing to MDF. I would snap fold a spade river here given my experience on this site.
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for a flopped two pair.
