PAHWM: An overdue return to the felt ACR Blitz (1 Viewer)

[Legend5555]

Played some hands for the first time in months last night. Just played a single table of blitz for about an hour. I didn't even have my HUD on. But thanks to the somewhat annoying new stats display in the top right, I know I played 300 hands. And by my saw flop #, I was probably playing around 26/22. A little higher than normal, but I was getting a lot of good starting hands. Only managed to finish even though.

Anyway...

Hand in question. 6 max blitz. No reads. No stats.

Effective stack: 225bb

UTG+1 opens to 2.5bb.
Folds to Hero in BB.
HERO has .
HERO 3! to 10.5bb.
UTG+1 4! to 25bb.

HERO?

 

[Eriks]

Call. Obv never folding and I don’t wanna play for stacks pre with QQ this deep.

Looking to check/call most non-A flops and take it from there

 

[Senzrock]

Call.

 

[Frogzilla]

I can’t remember the last time I was 4 bet and it wasn’t QQ+, with a splash of AK. Almost certainly behind his range and OOP. But V sized down as he should, and we are handcuffed into a call

 

[upNdown]

This is gross, and I think we have to call.
I’m just curious how you broke even on the session, with this hand, ha!

 

[upNdown]

I can’t remember the last time I was 4 bet and it wasn’t QQ+, with a splash of AK. Almost certainly behind his range and OOP.

Right. And could somebody who’s better at math than me, tell us what the odds are of an A or a K hitting the board, when you hold AK? My guess is that is just slightly under 50%, though the way poker goes, it usually feels more like 75%.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Since we don't have any reads on the villain specifically, we need to focus more on generalizations. How do people typical play in these Blitz games? Is 3 & 4-betting common? Or do people only 4-bet with ultra-premiums?

Is it possible this opponent has a read on you -i.e. your 3-betting frequency, etc.?

As to the hand itself, there's a case to be made for 3 of the 4 options. I think jamming would be reckless but the other options are viable.

The case for folding: HERO could be drawing to 2 outs and an all undercard flop will be costly. Villain has demonstrated considerable strength.

The case for calling (vs. raising): HERO is OOP and the pot is already large. HERO will have a STP fo ~4:1 going to the flop. HERO can close the action and re-evaluate on the flop.

The case for raising to ~65BB: HERO could have the best hand and punishing Villain for overplaying JJ or 1010 is +EV. If Villain holds AK, they will probably call but will not be able to continue if they whiff the flop. which they will 2/3 of the time. Villain's response to a 5-bet raise will be indicative of their hand strength. If they call, it doesn't mean they don't hold aces or kings but that seems less likely. HERO doesn't want to play for stacks here though. If the Villain jams, it's a fold.

This seems like the type of situation where minimizing exposure is the better option. Raising to 'find out where you're at' has merit, but keeping the pot somewhat manageable is probably best. I would suggest calling here.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Right. And could somebody who’s better at math than me, tell us what the odds are of an A or a K hitting the board, when you hold AK? My guess is that is just slightly under 50%, though the way poker goes, it usually feels more like 75%.

AK will connect with the flop ~1/3 of the time. SOURCE: https://www.splitsuit.com/how-does-...text=And we see AK flops,same 11% of the time.

 

[upNdown]

AK will connect with the flop ~1/3 of the time. SOURCE: https://www.splitsuit.com/how-does-ace-king-hit-flops#:~:text=And we see AK flops,same 11% of the time.

Thank you. But how about when we include the turn and river (because you know what Barry says.)

 

[FDLmold]

Right. And could somebody who’s better at math than me, tell us what the odds are of an A or a K hitting the board, when you hold AK? My guess is that is just slightly under 50%, though the way poker goes, it usually feels more like 75%.

A or K or both on flop if we hold AK =

1 - (44/50)(43/49)(42/48)

 

[Moxie Mike]

Thank you. But how about when we include the turn and river (because you know what Barry says.)

According to this, the odds of making a pair in Holdem is ~42%.

 

[Senzrock]

Thank you. But how about when we include the turn and river (because you know what Barry says.)

What you need to know is that AK is a coin flip vs any pair (slightly less than 50%) - easy to memorize.

 

[Legend5555]

Part 2

6 max blitz. No reads. No stats.

Effective stack: 225bb

UTG+1 opens to 2.5bb.
Folds to Hero in BB.
HERO has .
HERO 3! to 10.5bb.
UTG+1 4! to 25bb.

HERO calls.

Pot: 48bb (after rake)
Eff stack behind: 200bb
Flop:

HERO checks.
UTG+1 bets 12bb.

HERO?

 

[Senzrock]

I probably call once and fold turn to another bet but I don't mind a fold here either. We will be over folding a bit to 25% pot but we are in a tough spot on the turn and are now losing to the one hand we could have been ahead of (AK).

 

[Eriks]

Well that flop sucks. We mostly have him on AK/AA/KK and maybe some random shit pre, right? Now we can’t even beat the A5s type bluffs. I can’t bring myself to fold on the flop though but if the turn blanks and he keeps going, I’m out

 

[Frogzilla]

Oh so this is 6max so it’s basically 220 deep vs the HJ? If you have enough suited connector or low pairs that took this line then probably need to call QQ and JJ from theory perspective, but ok folding QQ right now also.

If call is +EV it’s slim

Fuck it call

 

[Moxie Mike]

How does HERO drag this pot?

So unless HERO spikes a queen on the turn or river, HERO really can't expect to have much showdown value. What does HERO beat? JJ? 1010?

HERO could call, hope the turn goes check/check and then bet the river hoping Villain folds KK?

That seems pretty wishful.

Deepstacked, OOP, large pot & a shitty flop?

I think calling once and folding are about the same EV-wise. So if HERO wants to call the downbet getting 5:1 to peel the turn, go ahead. But the paths to victory are long.

 

[Senzrock]

How does HERO drag this pot?

So unless HERO spikes a queen on the turn or river, HERO really can't expect to have much showdown value. What does HERO beat? JJ? 1010?

HERO could call, hope the turn goes check/check and then bet the river hoping Villain folds KK?

That seems pretty wishful.

Deepstacked, OOP, large pot & a shitty flop?

I think calling once and folding are about the same EV-wise. So if HERO wants to call the downbet getting 5:1 to peel the turn, go ahead. But the paths to victory are long.

Hero can still win this pot a lot of ways I think but the primary way is that the turn goes check check. Remember, hero's range looks quite strong here as well to villain. We might not have to bluff rivers to win.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Hero can still win this pot a lot of ways I think...

There's only two ways to win - at showdown and without going to showdown.

How often does HERO have the best hand at showdown without turning or rivering a set?

Unless the Villain is a maniac, I suspect not very often at all.

So HERO's best chance to win is to move the Villain off of his hand.

Assuming the turn goes c/c, HERO will almost certainly have to lead out on the river. But the Villain will only need to call one bet to get to showdown. It's difficult to imagine Villain folding any ace, and may make a hero call with KK.

So if HERO needs to move the Villain off his hand, perhaps he should try to do so as early in the hand as possible. As such, perhaps a check/raise on this flop is in order? It will be much harder for the Villain to continue with KK knowing there are two more streets to bet.

The more I think about this situation and the arduous paths to victory, it seems more like a clear fold.

Paging @DrStrange.

 

[MrCatPants]

Clear fold for the reasons stated above. Unless this player is a Maniac, what in his 4bet range are you beating at this point?

 

[Senzrock]

If we can see a river for just a 25% bet on the flop and a check on the turn, I think that is fine. Folding to any additional bets.

 

[DrStrange]

Preflop - Hero's three-bet looks line. Vs the 4-bet, hero has to make a decision:
A) We believe villain and fold. Hero would pay 15 bb to win 50bb hoping for a set Best case Hero can win 250 BB.
B) We believe villain and still hope to make enough set mining to justify the 15bb cost of a call.
C) We think villain's range is wider than QQ+ / AK. Maybe we flat and wait for a "safe" flop before betting, Maybe we 5-bet.

Knowing nothing about villain I would call and await the flop. But folding is better than the aggressive lines.

I am done on the flop. ace high flop hits villain's range hard. Sure Hero might be able to bluff villain into folding pocket kings or worse. But villain has a lot of top pair hands that aren't folding in a four SPR pot. I fear the rewards are not worth the risks/costs. Remember, I was thinking "set mining" nothing more. Hero has no set means it is time to quit.

Call me chicken, but I surrender. -=- DrStrange

 

[Senzrock]

What are the table stakes?

 

[Legend5555]

What are the table stakes?

Between 10nl and 50nl.

 

[Legend5555]

HERO folded.

In this configuration, I assume an EP raiser isn't going to 4 bet light very often against a BB 3! BB is priced in to call very often, so any 3! should generally look stronger. This a 4! should be more value heavy than normal. This player was also on 420bb, covering HERO's 225bb. Most people playing blitz on that much have an idea of what they are doing.

Villains quarter pot bet on flop is pretty standard by GTO. Any 4! range is typically betting all flops and for a small size on dry boards. Given that I can have pretty much all of the AK here myself, I figured I have a decent amount of better hands here. Including 99 for middle set about about 50-75% frequency as played pre. I figured even villain's bluffs are a mostly A(wheel) suited. I didn't want to call and pray it checked down. Besides, a decent amount of the time I could still lose to AX and KK that way.

 

[Moxie Mike]

HERO folded.

What were you hoping to learn by posting this?

 

[Legend5555]

I wanted to see if anyone has a different take pre or on flop. Wanted to see if I was just being a pansy.