PCF Raffles: A One Year Snapshot (1 Viewer)

[dew4au]

I've heard a lot about raffle burnout lately, so I decided to take a look at the numbers. I evaluated all raffles from November 2016 to November 2017. Here's what I found.

Total Raffles: 84
Successful Raffles: 48
Overall Raffle Success Rate: 57%

Successful Raffle Amount:
Average: $896
Median: $525
Total Value of Complete Raffles: $41,312

Canceled Raffle Amount:
Average: $1521
Median: $1000

Raffle success rate if value is greater than the average: 45%
Raffle success rate if value is greater than the median: 52%

Largest Attempted Raffle: @bergs Dunes set
Most Attempted Raffles: @Drumhoss with 11
(Most by non-vendor was a tie between @David O and @The Kid with 4)

And finally, Raffles by Month:

It looks like September is when we reached peak raffle, but I will add this caveat; @Drumhoss fired off seven raffles that month and most of them were low value.

For those of you who say you're burned out on raffles, I think the numbers justify your feelings. Raffles over the past year followed a cycle of many raffles in one month followed by a cool down period of one or two months. After the May cool down, the raffles came back stronger each successive cycle. November looks like it will continue the upward trend since we're only ten days into the month and we've already had as many raffles as October.

Anyway, there it is!

Update: I've added information on ticket cost and quantity below.

For Successful Raffles:
Average Ticket Cost: $17.85
Average Ticket Quantity: 38.97

Median Ticket Cost: $20
Median Ticket Quantity: 25


For Failed Raffles:
Average Ticket Cost: $23.79
Average Ticket Quantity: 47.53

Median Ticket Cost: $25
Median Ticket Quantity: 40

Update 2:

Taking another look at the success rate of ticket prices.

Ticket Price Range / Success Rate
$1 to $10 - 71.43%
$11 to $20 - 72.73%
$21 to $30 - 35.00%
$31 to $40 - 50.00%
40+ 0%

Ticket price range percentage of total raffles
$1 to $10 -27.63%
$11 to $20 - 28.95%
$21 to $30 - 26.32%
$31 to $40 - 13.16%
40+ 3.95%

 

[arch3r]

Great work.

Would be cool to see some other stats.

Avg ticket price?
Avg number of spots?
Is there any correlation between ticket price and/or number of spots to the success of the raffle?
Number of distinct winners?

 

[chubbyone]

Great work.

Would be cool to see some other stats.

Avg ticket price?
Avg number of spots?
Is there any correlation between ticket price and/or number of spots to the success of the raffle?
Number of distinct winners?

The obvious answer is lower price = more chance of success.

Thinking along those lines... I wonder if the larger value sets would benefit from a larger total ticket pool. Most are capped around 100. I don't think I've seen anything over. Just for example sake, I think if @Chbyfngr would have had the Bahamia set @ 200 tickets for $18 a piece he would have gotten a lot more action. For me personally, the price has to feel completely insignificant given the potential total gains. (I know that a single ticket vs total set value is always "worth it" if you win... but obviously we all have that threshold of when it feels right to gamble.)

The people who are happy to drop $100 on each raffle will still get the same equity, but people with their pockets sewn shallower by their wives and kids and circumstance will be able to jump in too, at least on average, more often.

I may be way off base here, just thinking out loud.

 

[dew4au]

Great work.

Would be cool to see some other stats.

Avg ticket price?
Avg number of spots?
Is there any correlation between ticket price and/or number of spots to the success of the raffle?
Number of distinct winners?

Ticket price and spots won't be hard, since I grabbed most of those values. I should have thought of that earlier because I just captured the total value if it was super simple.

The winners will be murkier, because some people didn't post clear winners in the the first post, so I would have to sift through all of the posts to determine the winner. That might be boredom for another day.

My gut is that there will be correlation to ticket price or spots and the total price since the more expensive raffles are less likely to get off the ground. I'll nail that one down though after I finish filling out the ticket info.

 

[Quicksilver-75]

I still personally like the raffle. Long live the raffle! (y) :thumbsup: It has obvious advantages and disadvantages. Largely due to making big, expensive sets affordable vs chances to win. I think they will remain popular for smaller sets or mid-range sets.

 

[BGinGA]

I rarely bother with raffles anymore. If it's a set I really want, I'd rather just buy it.... the money spent eventually returns at resale. When a desirable set gets posted as a raffle with no BIN option, it just pisses me off.

On the other hand, I don't mind raffles held amongst all interested full-price buyers. Imo, it's the fairest way to sell a set.

 

[churlbut18]

I rarely bother with raffles anymore. If it's a set I really want, I'd rather just buy it.... the money spent eventually returns at resale. When a desirable set gets posted as a raffle with no BIN option, it just pisses me off.

On the other hand, I don't mind raffles held amongst all interested full-price buyers. Imo, it's the fairest way to sell a set.

It seems like often times the seller tries to sell the set first, and when there are no takers (maybe even after a few price reductions) they attempt a raffle as an alternative option. Curious of the ratio of sets that start out for sale and then go to raffle vs those that go to raffle out of the gate...

 

[Ronoh]

A decent number of raffles don't go off because the seller is simply asking for too much money. If a set has an approximate value of $1000 a raffle isn't going to happen if someone is asking for $1500 regardless of if the format is 100 tickets at $15 each or 50 tickets at $30 each.

 

[dew4au]

I rarely bother with raffles anymore. If it's a set I really want, I'd rather just buy it.... the money spent eventually returns at resale.

Call me a nit, but I've never participated in one. I feel the same way.

It seems like often times the seller tries to sell the set first, and when there are no takers (maybe even after a few price reductions) they attempt a raffle as an alternative option. Curious of the ratio of sets that start out for sale and then go to raffle vs those that go to raffle out of the gate...

Several sets were attempted multiple times for sure. Hard to pull this data without a significant time investment correlating raffles to WTS

A decent number of raffles don't go off because the seller is simply asking for too much money. If a set has an approximate value of $1000 a raffle isn't going to happen if someone is asking for $1500 regardless of if the format is 100 tickets at $15 each or 50 tickets at $30 each.

I noticed this as a trend during my review. Hard to quantify it though without a large time investment pouring over the contents of each set and assigning and someone savvy enough to assign an objective value. My gut agrees.

 

[arch3r]

I think any raffle, regardless of prize value, would be successful, if the ticket price is set right. Like @chubbyone said, a cheaper ticket price opens up the raffle to more people with less disposable income, while those willing to pay $20/ticket will probably buy 2 @ $10. But if you set the price too low, managing all the entries is a full time job. Too high and there's not enough people willing to participate. So it will be interesting to see what the avg ticket price was for the successful raffles.

 

[Ronoh]

I love raffles even though I've never won one. I mean, even though I've not won one recently. I mean, raffles are fun.

 

[krafticus]

I mean, raffles are...... ok ..... I guess

 

[rowlin]

I hear Raffles is undergoing renovation.

Gorgeous hotel, they say.

 

[detroitdad]

Speaking of Raffles I know of one that only has four tickets left

 

[dew4au]

@arch3r
OP updated with ticket price and quantity information. It doesn't look like quantity is a factor. Twenty bucks seems to be the make or break.

 

[kk405]

Interesting stats. I agree with others and usually end up buying the chips/sets that I like, but I do participate in Raffles for chips that I don't mind having, but don't necessarily need, at least not at present time . The current Raffles for the PNY and Avalon chips are an example (y) :thumbsup:.

 

[Quicksilver-75]

Speaking of Raffles I know of one that only has four tickets left

I'd like nothing more than to win your raffle and use those chips for the craps table. It's a perfectly setup for what I'd need too..

4 left you say?

 

[dew4au]

Another bit of info I found out was that PCFers who live outside of North America have a much harder time getting raffles off. Only 3 out of 13 launched.

 

[colter ripton]

I've been buying raffle tickets some, and if I think the price is fair and the chips are nice I usually buy a ticket. I haven't won any yet.

I also agree that if chips are really expensive that increasing the number of tickets and decreasing the entry fee is probably a good idea.

Probably the most important factor for me to buy a ticket is if the price is fair. If someone is asking way too much for the set, I don't buy a ticket. Even if the tickets are only like 10 dollars.

I don't mind the raffles, and I think they are probably a good way to sell sets that may take a long time to move.

I am planning on not buying so many in the future though. I haven't even gotten close to winning one.

Maybe ill win the pnys.....

 

[Numerobis]

Great work, thanks for sharing, I am curious to know who initiated the first one?

That said, I never been a fan of raffles

 

[BGinGA]

Tommy's gtop set was one of the earlier ones, but I don't think it was the first.

 

[links_slayer]

I did my first one in march of '16 (CPC rounders). That was for charity though so not sure if it counts.

 

[upNdown]

Thanks for pulling this data together.
I think the big increase we see in attempted raffles is an indication that people are asking more for their chips than they’re worth.
I might be oversimplifying things, but chips are only worth what the market says they’re worth. And if somebody puts their chips on the market, and nobody buys them, then they’re just not “worth” the asking price. I really think it’s that simple - most chips aren’t “worth” as much as they were a year or two ago.

 

[TheBigTater]

Who doesn't like Raffles, kids love Raffles the Clown.

I would never complain about raffles as I've won a couple on here. I take it a just a fun little gamble/flip especially with some of the larger sets that I would love to own but normally wouldn't be dropping big bucks on. AFAIC the seller should be able to use this method or sell anyway they think will work as long as it's not against the forum rules.

I do find it a little annoying that "almost every" WTS classified immediately gets posts that say "raffle" or "I'd be in for a raffle", etc... It feels like the forum sometimes is trying to bully the seller into running their sale a raffle.

But raffles have shown to be an viable alternative to moving sets that aren't selling otherwise.

 

[krafticus]

I mentioned it before, but I believe the 1st was the Donkwoods set from @manamongkids that courage won.

 

[ssanel54]

Thanks for pulling this data together.
I think the big increase we see in attempted raffles is an indication that people are asking more for their chips than they’re worth.
I might be oversimplifying things, but chips are only worth what the market says they’re worth. And if somebody puts their chips on the market, and nobody buys them, then they’re just not “worth” the asking price. I really think it’s that simple - most chips aren’t “worth” as much as they were a year or two ago.

I do find it a little annoying that "almost every" WTS classified immediately gets posts that say "raffle" or "I'd be in for a raffle", etc... It feels like the forum sometimes is trying to bully the seller into running their sale a raffle..

The compounding affect of these two are what is ruining the classifieds IMO. Nothing is negotiated or sold anymore until every sale/raffle permutation is exhausted.

 

[dew4au]

OP updated with the following info:

Taking another look at the success rate of ticket prices.

Ticket Price Range / Success Rate
$1 to $10 - 71.43%
$11 to $20 - 72.73%
$21 to $30 - 35.00%
$31 to $40 - 50.00%
40+ 0%

Ticket price range percentage of total raffles
$1 to $10 -27.63%
$11 to $20 - 28.95%
$21 to $30 - 26.32%
$31 to $40 - 13.16%
40+ 3.95%

It looks like a anything north of $40 bucks is the kiss of death, but only a few have been attempted.

If you want to get a raffle off the ground you have a much better chance of doing so with a ticket price of $20 or below.

 

[ssanel54]

If you want to get a raffle off the round you have a much better chance of doing so with a ticket price of $20 or below.

this probably reflects the $1.50-2.50 price range for most of the sets I would guess?

 

[dew4au]

this probably reflects the $1.50-2.50 price range for most of the sets I would guess?

I think it's a sign of what people consider acceptable for a disposable impulse purchase. Drumhoss has been very successful with raffles that cost $20 or less and fire quickly.

 

[ssanel54]

I think it's a sign of what people consider acceptable for a disposable impulse purchase. Drumhoss has been very successful with raffles that cost $20 or less and fire quickly.

Yes. though Im assuming there is an inflection point for number of entries as well. I doubt many $20 raffles would go off which required 500 entries.