Play or Fold the flush draw? (1 Viewer)

[Mojo1312]

I have been playing in a weekly .10¢ /.20¢ home game since mid March. The game is fairly loose, and can be quite profitable. (Hero's two big cashes are $440 and $310.)

About 3.5 hours in. Hero is dealt A

9

on the button. Everyone limps, Hero bumps it up to $4.20. (Three dollars rarely gets anyone to fold this deep into the game.) MP, Hijack and Cut-off call.

Flop: 2-3-4 with two diamonds. MP bets $12.20. Hijack folds. Cut-off shoves all-in for $113.40.

MP has $62 behind. Hero covers Cut-off.

Thoughts on the hand:

MP is a regular and usually only tries to steal if he has position. He could be playing connectors, but a straight is unlikely based upon his action. He could have top pair with a straight draw or possibly two pair on a wet board.

This is only the second time Hero has played against the Cut-off. Hero questions whether Cut-off flopped a straight. Important to note that Cut-off and his GF of 7 years broke up over Easter weekend. Cut-off has consumed 8 or 9 beers since sitting down at the table. He is clearly intoxicated, slurring some of his words.

Low suited connectors doesn't really fit his pattern, however an Ace five could be in his range. Since the Cut-off is intoxicated, Hero wonders if he might have jammed with a strong flush draw. Hero only has $4 invested.

Roughly $143 in the pot. $113.40 to call.

(Normal circumstances, this is a fold, but Hero feels like gambling.)

What would you do? - Everyone's feedback is welcome.

 

[bergs]

Hero should fold unless he feels like gambling.

 

[Jambine]

Got to call. The straight doesn't matter and you have a back door straight flush draw that might make his straight
Gamble !

 

[Trihonda]

Given the table read, I'd probably call. Expect to be behind a good amount of the time.

 

[DrStrange]

This would be better placed in strategy vs home game general.

Why would Hero want to take a superior quality speculative hand and turn it into a "big ace" hand by making a massive preflop raise? Now we have a $16+ pot prior to the flop leading to an SPR of ~7. I think hero would have been better served to limp and play a pot with an SPR of 100ish, especially given the enthusiasm of villains' post flop betting.

We don't have villain reads even though this is a home game. No reason to offer post flop opinions yet, lets get some details about the players which will greatly influence my opinion (and should be the determining factor in Hero's decision.)

 

[upNdown]

I agree with Dr. Strange that the preflop bet was high for that hand. But given that you are where you are . . .
I'd fold. You have two chances to get one of 9 diamonds. Somebody might have already made a set, you you could get beat by a house even if you make your flush. You're only in it for four bucks. I'd pick a better place to gamble.

 

[DrStrange]

Hero is very likely to have more equity than the flush draw offers. A five gives hero the wheel. An ace or nine gives hero top pair. Villain could plausibly be semi-bluffing with a naked five or weaker flush draw, meaning hero is already ahead. Villain could also hold sets making hero's draws less valuable due to villain's redraws.

This is why we desperately need villain reads. That all-in overbet is not exactly normal, it means something specific to the villain's range. Lots of times I expect to see an over pair, which Hero crushes. (Hero could have as many as 18 outs vs something like pocket sevens or eights.)

 

[upNdown]

Hero is very likely to have more equity than the flush draw offers. A five gives hero the wheel. An ace or nine gives hero top pair. Villain could plausibly be semi-bluffing with a naked five or weaker flush draw, meaning hero is already ahead. Villain could also hold sets making hero's draws less valuable due to villain's redraws.

This is why we desperately need villain reads. That all-in overbet is not exactly normal, it means something specific to the villain's range. Lots of times I expect to see an over pair, which Hero crushes. (Hero could have as many as 18 outs vs something like pocket sevens or eights.)

Hero raised 20 big blinds and got 2 callers. I think it's a safe concern that one of them has a pocket pair that has turned into a set.
You're right, we'd want more info to make a good decision, but absent that, I'm comfortable folding.
And yes, there's a straight draw, but I've lost a lot of money on wheel boards that people are betting into.

 

[DrStrange]

It takes a specific kind of villain to bet $100 into a $40 pot. In a long running home game, hero should be able to tell us a lot about this. I certainly wouldn't jam all-in for 2.5 x pot with a flopped set, but I know villains who would do that.

 

[Mojo1312]

This would be better placed in strategy vs home game general.

Why would Hero want to take a superior quality speculative hand and turn it into a "big ace" hand by making a massive preflop raise? Now we have a $16+ pot prior to the flop leading to an SPR of ~7. I think hero would have been better served to limp and play a pot with an SPR of 100ish, especially given the enthusiasm of villains' post flop betting.

We don't have villain reads even though this is a home game. No reason to offer post flop opinions yet, lets get some details about the players which will greatly influence my opinion (and should be the determining factor in Hero's decision.)

So Villain reads is the conundrum. This is only the second session Hero has played against the Cut-off. The Cut-off arrived late to the first game early on, which Hero crushed winning $440. Hero is in somewhat of a spot. He doesn't know how much weight he should give the Cut-off for flopping the nuts. Is he trying to be cagey with a weaker flush draw? Should the Cut-offs intoxication effect Hero's decision making when ranging his hand?

Hero did thin the field of 8 with his $4 pre-flop bet from the button. His other alternative was to limp. .10/.20 blinds don't have any real bearing to the game. These players are going to call a 15BB raise or smaller with hands a lot more speculative than Hero's from weaker positions.

MP is the youngest player in the group. He has an active mind and pays attention to how people play so that he might learn how to improve his game. For those reasons, Hero probably should have spent more time considering the MP's play, but his focus was on the intoxicated player to his right who shoved all in.

Hero's first inclination was to fold, but he figured if the Cut-off was gambling, and he chose to gamble along with him, then MP would likely fold his hand if Hero's initial guess to his holdings was correct. An over pair to the board, or possibly two pair with low connectors. (The latter in hindsight doesn't really fit into his evolving playing style.)

Wish I could give you more info, but fleshing out Villain reads might be my weakness.

 

[chkmte]

The first thing that jumps out is the fact that you're playing 0.10/0.20 AND the you have someone who shoves $100+ into a pot. I'd wait (all-night) until I have the stone-cold nuts and pounce on that poor drunken soul. I don't see any upside to gambling among all that silliness - just wait like a snake.

 

[AWenger]

(Normal circumstances, this is a fold, but Hero feels like gambling.)

I'd probably think fold as my first thought, but then reconsider... well, I just raised with Ad9d, flopped a flush draw with a gut shot, and talk myself into a call, even knowing I'm behind. Especially if the buy-in (reload amount) for the game is $100+ (and not $20 or $40).

Hero probably should have spent more time considering the MP's play,

I'd definitely consider MP. Does he have a hand like two pair, which he won't fold, or maybe pocket 66, which he might or might not fold.

The game is fairly loose

Cut-off has consumed 8 or 9 beers since sitting down at the table. He is clearly intoxicated, slurring some of his words.

When you put it like this, I probably have a hard time folding the nut flush draw here. He could be on a stone cold bluff.

I was curious to run the math against some hands. Let's first assume MP will fold, comparing two hands, there's $30 in the pot, with a shove for $113. $143 to $113, which is roughly 5 to 4, so you need >44% equity for a call to be mathematically correct.
Ad9d is:
- 81% against most other flush draws [exceptions: 40% vs. a pair & flush draw; 24% against 5d6d].
- 48% versus a hand like 45, one pair & open-ended
- 40% versus two pair.
- 36% versus the 56 straight.
- 31% versus a set.

Even if MP calls all-in for less, then you're getting more than 3:1 for the main pot, and 50/50 for the side pot, you're still in OK shape against 2 hands, unless one of them has a set, and another has a flush draw, taking some of your outs away. You're more than 1/3 if you're up against two different sets.
Ad9d is:
- 34% vs. 44 and 33
- 34% vs. 56 and 56
- 31% vs. 56 and 34
- 26% vs. 44 and KdQd
- 20% vs. 44 and 3d6d

 

[Mojo1312]

Hero talked himself into a call figuring that he could very well be on the short end of the stick if Cut-off had flopped the straight. He looked by the fact that MP could have hit a set.

MP called with pocket fours. Cut-off had the Ace of Spades and Five of Diamonds (Ugh) for the wheel.

River and turn did not help Hero or MP.

Hero went from big stack to short stack but rebounded nicely by winning two of the next three hands. (One in Omaha and one in Hold-em.) MP broke even for the night. Cut-off lost $80 plus from his stack during the last hour of play, cashing out with $235.

Appreciate the posts.

 

[Adam Crowley]

Not taking results into account. This is a clear fold. Players that play aggressive enough to make this move with a range we want to call against would be bluffing too often and in general over playing weaker hands in spots they shouldn't.