Playing AQ on the bubble at the Shootout (1 Viewer)

[bentax1978]

So I am pretty sure this hand just played itself, but I wanted to solicit a few opinions from those who more regularly play tournaments. We had just consolidated to the final table of 10 players and top 9 get paid.

The following details are as best I can recall. If anyone was at the table and spots an error, please feel free to correct me.

Blinds were 4k/8k, average stack was about 128k. I had 59k to start the hand, which I believe was one of the shorter stacks. Action folds around to cutoff who raises to 20k. I don't recall exactly how much cutoff had, but he has me well covered, probably at least an average size stack. Button fold. I'm in the SB and looked down at AQs. BB had about the same chip stack as I do.

At the time I thought this was a no-brainer given that I had under 8BB left and I pushed all-in with my AQs. I did consider the fact that I was on the money bubble and that losing would knock me out of the tournament, but I also knew that doubling up would give me an average stack size and a shot at possibly winning.

Of course the BB (aka SOHE-WC) manages to beat me into the pot with a lighting fast snap call. So the action is back on cutoff, who called getting about 4:1 on his money.

Turns out BB has KK, cutoff had ATo. No need to draw out the results, BB made quads and I was left with less than one BB. (my AQ held against AT to win the 6k side pot)

So forgetting about the actual outcome, was there any reason not to push with AQs in that situation given the circumstances, specifically being on the bubble?

 

[Mr Tree]

So I am pretty sure this hand just played itself, but I wanted to solicit a few opinions from those who more regularly play tournaments. We had just consolidated to the final table of 10 players and top 9 get paid.

The following details are as best I can recall. If anyone was at the table and spots an error, please feel free to correct me.

Blinds were 4k/8k, average stack was about 128k. I had 59k to start the hand, which I believe was one of the shorter stacks. Action folds around to UTG+1 who raises to 20k. I don't recall exactly how much UTG+1 had, but he has me well covered, probably at least an average size stack. UTG and button fold. I'm in the SB and looked down at AQs. BB had about the same chip stack as I do.

At the time I thought this was a no-brainer given that I had under 8BB left and I pushed all-in with my AQs. I did consider the fact that I was on the money bubble and that losing would knock me out of the tournament, but I also knew that doubling up would give me an average stack size and a shot at possibly winning.

Of course the BB (aka SOHE-WC) manages to beat me into the pot with a lighting fast snap call. So the action is back on UTG+1, who called getting about 4:1 on his money.

Turns out BB has KK, UTG+1 had ATo. No need to draw out the results, BB made quads and I was left with less than one BB. (my AQ held against AT to win the 6k side pot)

So forgetting about the actual outcome, was there any reason not to push with AQs in that situation given the circumstances, specifically being on the bubble?

Given the hand and your stack it's an easy push. It's as good as your are likely to get and probably your best chance at making he money is a double up here. You just got screwed the BB had KK

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Well utg+1 would indicate a stronger hand, but he wasn't utg+1, he was in the cutoff, so yeah I think it's an easy shove. Except when bb binks quads of course.

 

[bentax1978]

Well utg+1 would indicate a stronger hand, but he wasn't utg+1, he was in the cutoff, so yeah I think it's an easy shove. Except when bb binks quads of course.

You're right. I don't know why I said UTG+1. I meant button-1

I even originally wrote "folds around to UTG+1", so in my head I knew what I meant.

 

[krafticus]

Fold pre. Everyone knows that AQ no good! !!!!!!!

 

[bentax1978]

Fold pre. Everyone knows that AQ no good! !!!!!!!

The irony is I got busted out of the Flordia meet up two months ago with AQ vs KK. Although that time I had the KK and an ace came on the flop. Thanks @inca911

 

[krafticus]

The irony is I got busted out of the Flordia meet up two months ago with AQ vs KK. Although that time I had the KK and an ace came on the flop. Thanks @inca911

See!!
I had special chips made for such an occasion.


Mark

 

[bentax1978]

See!!
I had special chips made for such an occasion.


Mark

You beat me to it! I was just going downstairs to take a picture and post it in reply to your original AQ no good.

 

[stocky]

Without knowledge about cutoff it's a fine shove. I can find a fold if CO is playing extremely tight.

 

[bentax1978]

Without knowledge about cutoff it's a fine shove. I can find a fold if CO is playing extremely tight.

Does having the SOHE-WC on my left change the equation at all? I feel like I should have seen quad kings coming from a mile away from him

I felt like cutoff was likely stealing blinds with a decent hand, so I felt like I was likely a favorite or coin-flip against most of his range.

 

[trever]

Does having the SOHE-WC on my left change the equation at all? I feel like I should have seen quad kings coming from a mile away from him

I felt like cutoff was likely stealing blinds with a decent hand, so I felt like I was likely a favorite or coin-flip against most of his range.

I'm the cutoff. Shoving AQs against me is pretty much always correct in this spot.

 

[stocky]

Does having the SOHE-WC on my left change the equation at all? I feel like I should have seen quad kings coming from a mile away from him

I felt like cutoff was likely stealing blinds with a decent hand, so I felt like I was likely a favorite or coin-flip against most of his range.

Well you've gotta show the world champs you're not afraid to get it in against them.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Easy shove. It does suck you have zero fold equity though, it's always nice to be able to accumulate chips when the blinds are high without actually having to win at showdown.

Trever was correct to raise in that spot (and depending on stack sizes for himself and the remaining players in the hand might have even shoved) and you were correct to get it all-in.

 

[Mental Nomad]

No poker was harmed in the playing of this hand.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

The worst part was I couldn't Nutter Butter.

 

[thorwilliam]

Well played, just unlucky to run into kings.

 

[bentax1978]

I'm the cutoff. Shoving AQs against me is pretty much always correct in this spot.

The overall feeling seems to be that shoving with AQ was the right move. To be honest, I didn't really give it a too much thought (at the time) when I saw my AQs given that I had less than 8BB left.

I was just thinking about it after, trying not to let the fact that the BB woke up to KK and that I lost the hand influence the analysis. I suppose the only argument against a shove was the fact that 1) I have no fold equity given the stack sizes and 2) if I lose, I'm busted out on the bubble.

Regarding the second point above, this was the main question and reason I posted, since I don't play a lot of tournaments like this. How much should the fact that losing the hand eliminates me from the tournament play into my decision to shove into a raises pot. Since I was in the SB, I was about to get 8 "free" hands and it's certainly possible that one or more players could get knocked out during that time. So even though during the majority of the tournament, I see shoving with AQs and <8BB as a solid play against a raise from the cutoff, I wonder if the fact that we were on the money/bubble line changes the answer at all.

 

[Mr Tree]

The overall feeling seems to be that shoving with AQ was the right move. To be honest, I didn't really give it a too much thought (at the time) when I saw my AQs given that I had less than 8BB left.

I was just thinking about it after, trying not to let the fact that the BB woke up to KK and that I lost the hand influence the analysis. I suppose the only argument against a shove was the fact that 1) I have no fold equity given the stack sizes and 2) if I lose, I'm busted out on the bubble.

Regarding the second point above, this was the main question and reason I posted, since I don't play a lot of tournaments like this. How much should the fact that losing the hand eliminates me from the tournament play into my decision to shove into a raises pot. Since I was in the SB, I was about to get 8 "free" hands and it's certainly possible that one or more players could get knocked out during that time. So even though during the majority of the tournament, I see shoving with AQs and <8BB as a solid play against a raise from the cutoff, I wonder if the fact that we were on the money/bubble line changes the answer at all.

How important is the last place money to you? In a big tournament I definitely think you have a huge argument here. To me for about $100 (in this case) I would rather try to double up and get myself in position to make a run. It is doubtful you will get a better hand in the next round. Fold equity means nothing at this point. You won't have it in any other hand either and this is your shot to double up.

 

[stocky]

IMO the only way we get away from this hand is if we are deeper. If we were deeper we'd flat the preflop raise and snap fold to bb shove.

 

[Anthony Martino]

Regarding the second point above, this was the main question and reason I posted, since I don't play a lot of tournaments like this. How much should the fact that losing the hand eliminates me from the tournament play into my decision to shove into a raises pot. Since I was in the SB, I was about to get 8 "free" hands and it's certainly possible that one or more players could get knocked out during that time. So even though during the majority of the tournament, I see shoving with AQs and <8BB as a solid play against a raise from the cutoff, I wonder if the fact that we were on the money/bubble line changes the answer at all.

no, because the payout for 9th place was less than the buyin if I recall correctly (I think about 80 bucks). Play to win the tourney in these spots, just cashing isn't worth it compared with taking the shot at 1st place.

You could finish 9th for SEVEN years in a row at the WSOP Main Event and still not make the profit you'd get for finishing in 1st place ONE time.

 

[bentax1978]

How important is the last place money to you? In a big tournament I definitely think you have a huge argument here. To me for about $100 (in this case) I would rather try to double up and get myself in position to make a run. It is doubtful you will get a better hand in the next round. Fold equity means nothing at this point. You won't have it in any other hand either and this is your shot to double up.

By fold equity I just meant if I were the initial raiser, I'd have fold equity to pick up the blinds. Given the stacks, I realize I will never have fold equity by three betting.

As for trying to hang on another round, you are certainly correct that it's likely this would be the best hand I'd see before the blinds got back to me, which is why I snap shoved when I looked down. You are also correct that I was much more interested in trying to make a run and win, or at least get a trophy, and that the $100 for 8/9th place was essentially meaningless to me. So a double up here, which puts me right back into the tournament with an average stack, was a lot more important than trying to hang on for another round to squeak out an 8th/9th place finish.

I guess that answers my original question

 

[Mr Tree]

By fold equity I just meant if I were the initial raiser, I'd have fold equity to pick up the blinds. Given the stacks, I realize I will never have fold equity by three betting.

As for trying to hang on another round, you are certainly correct that it's likely this would be the best hand I'd see before the blinds got back to me, which is why I snap shoved when I looked down. You are also correct that I was much more interested in trying to make a run and win, or at least get a trophy, and that the $100 for 8/9th place was essentially meaningless to me. So a double up here, which puts me right back into the tournament with an average stack, was a lot more important than trying to hang on for another round to squeak out an 8th/9th place finish.

I guess that kind of answers my original question

If you change the scenario to one where you are right on the cusp of the bubble in the WSOP and taking in $20K-ish vs getting nothing with about 500 players remaining then I can definitely see a lay down here and try to wait it out.

 

[bentax1978]

If you change the scenario to one where you are right on the cusp of the bubble in the WSOP and taking in $20K-ish vs getting nothing with about 500 players remaining then I can definitely see a lay down here and try to wait it out.

This is more what I was getting at in terms of the correct play when on the bubble of a tournament.

However, as you pointed out, the relative utility of having a shot at winning your tournament vs an 8th/9th place finish was so vast (to me personally), that playing just to cash in this position would have been a mistake.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I think the WSOP Main Event is the exception to the rule, however, and even then if the min cash won't alter your life then it's still probably the wrong play. You should play to win tournaments, not fold your way to a min cash.

You hear all he time about pros exploiting the money bubble to pump up their chip stacks. If anything, you should be an exploiter, not an exploitee. Shoving AQ is the right play here, and it's not even close.

 

[bentax1978]

I think the WSOP Main Event is the exception to the rule, however, and even then if the min cash won't alter your life then it's still probably the wrong play. You should play to win tournaments, not fold your way to a min cash.

You hear all he time about pros exploiting the money bubble to pump up their chip stacks. If anything, you should be an exploiter, not an exploitee. Shoving AQ is the right play here, and it's not even close.

To be fair, I would never expect a SOHE-WC to play for anything less than first place.


(and I do agree with your overall post)

 

[onerand]

Shove is correct. Ignore the fact that Bill picked up a monster behind. Can't control that. You have no fold equity agaisnt the big stack opener, but his range should be very wide here if he is playing well. Expect to lose at least 30% if the time.

 

[moojersey]

Shove is def correct. I'm always playing for #1. Even vs KK you're not in terrible shape pre