Poker math - A6 vs 55 (1 Viewer)

[mummel]

I was watching this vid. Im curious as to why the 55 dominates the A6 here? Any of the guy's 6 outs will beat her hand with 2 outs, yet she's favored? Help a noob learn math haha. TY.

 

[Dr. Neau]

Well, she doesn't need outs. She's winning.

5-5-K-10-8 > A-K-10-8-6

His only chances are Ac, Ad, As, 6c, 6h, 6s, runner-runner Q-J/J-Q/9-7/7-9 or the turn and river each pairing the board to counterfeit her and give him the win with the ace. He has no flush chances.
Assuming she can avoid one of those scenarios, she wins.

 

[Burke]

Well A6 has six outs with 2 cards left....that gives him about 24%. I guess you could consider that he could hit runner-runner for 2 different straights so you can bump him up to 30% overall.

55 is 70% to win the hand. I guess the real answer to the question is, what do you consider domination?

Edit: haha percentages are posted above....nothing to see here.

 

[jbutler]

I was watching this vid. Im curious as to why the 55 dominates the A6 here? Any of the guy's 6 outs will beat her hand with 2 outs, yet she's favored?

I think the reason for Liv's pained expression in the freeze frame above is that she saw into the future and saw you writing this.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I was watching this vid. Im curious as to why the 55 dominates the A6 here? Any of the guy's 6 outs will beat her hand with 2 outs, yet she's favored? Help a noob learn math haha. TY.

View attachment 68187

Did you not see the flop is out already? Preflop it is much closer about 55/44 in favor of the fives.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Obviously it's going to run out jack-queen, though.

 

[Mental Nomad]

Im curious as to why the 55 dominates the A6 here? Any of the guy's 6 outs will beat her hand with 2 outs, yet she's favored?

Like others said, the 55 doesn't need 'outs,' it's already ahead and winning.

The A6 has six simple outs, and there are 45 unseen cards... so the A6 hits one of them about 6/45 = 13.3% of the time in one card, and roughly double that in two cards. He also has a couple of ways to back door a straight. In total, it adds up to 30% chance of drawing out to win. Everything else goes to the 55.

 

[PeeMcGee]

If you’re looking for a mathematical breakdown…


Turn-River Combos that will give Carlsson the win .......... the number of ways to make that combo:

Q-J / 9-7 ................. 16 ways each (32 total)


K-10 / K-8 / 10-8 / A-6 ... 9 ways each (36 total)


Ax (x=2,3,4,7,9,J,Q) ...... 12 ways each (84 total)


Ay (x=8,10,K) ............. 9 ways each (27 total)


AA ........................ 3 ways


6x (x=2,3,4,7,9,J,Q) ...... 12 ways each (84 total)


6y (x=8,10,K) ............. 9 ways each (27 total)


66 ........................ 3 ways


For a total of 296 winning turn-river combos. There are 45*44/2 = 990 total combos.


Therefore, Carlsson probability of winning is 296/990 or about 29.9% as shown.

 

[Mental Nomad]

Ax (x=2,3,4,7,9,J,Q) ...... 12 ways each (84 total)

Remembers to take out the 5... nice.

 

[Seeking Alpha Social Club]

If you're drinking and having a good time, just use the "times 2 plus 2" rule of thumb. Not near as elegant or accurate as some, but it'll get you to a decision quickly.

6 outs x 2 = 12 + 2 = 14% chance of hitting for each remaining card to come.

2 cards to come, so 28%ish (14% x 2) chance of hitting.

He can also win if any 2 of the flop cards hit on the turn and river (without putting 3 of a kind on the board), or if a back door staight hits, which accounts for the remaining couple of %.

 

[Dr. Neau]

Three of a kind on the board doesn't give him a win...it gives her a full house.

 

[Seeking Alpha Social Club]

Yes. I was saying he needs to avoid 3 of a kind.

 

[Dr. Neau]

Yes. I was saying he needs to avoid 3 of a kind.

I can't read straight after 10:30