Tournament 6 handed: What Does This PFR Mean? (1 Viewer)

[Moxie Mike]

This hand was from our private league last night. Live play. 11 players entered, 6 remain. Pays top 3. 640,000 chips in play, limits are 3000/6000.

***This is less of a 'PAHWM' post and is more intended to be a discussion what specific bets mean from certain types of players. That said, feel free to chime in with any thoughts you have about any of this.***​

Action:

Folds to MP (stack 60k) who min raises to 12k. READ: Last night was only the second time this individual has joined us for league play, so reads are scarce. He seems to be a little more on the passive side, friendly guy with a happy demeanor but doesn't say much as he is new to the group. PFR sizes tend to correlate to the strength of his hand based on the limited showdowns I've seen.

CO (stack 200k) in the next seat raises to 20k. This player along with his wife have attended EVERY league event for 3 seasons. He has won more events than any other league player, and is leading the league points race for the current season. READ: Solid player who can be deceptive at times - generally doesn't get out of line. Has bluffed less as league play has progressed. Has demonstrated a complete understanding of tournament dynamics. Tends to either make a deep run or gets knocked out early. Rarely finishes in the middle of the pack.

The button folded and SB (me; stack: 120k) looks down at KQo. Size of the pot after BB presumably folds and MP assuredly calls will be 49k... so it's 17k to call leaving about 100k behind.

How do we range CO's hand after his small 3-bet?

***This hand went to showdown, so complete results will be revealed this evening.***

 

[Highli99]

Min raise from strong player is suspicious. Smells like he wants a call. Even the initial raiser is probably ahead. I'd fold kqo here.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Min raise from strong player is suspicious. Smells like he wants a call. Even the initial raiser is probably ahead. I'd fold kqo here.

Thanks for chiming in. I'm not going to participate in this discussion since I know the results - but I will answer any questions people might have.

 

[Legend5555]

I'm suspicious of both hands. With 200k and shorter players behind, a competent player as you described would likely just jam most raising hands here unless they wanted a to see a jam behind. He knows he is never folding to the 60k guy, so why just "click it back" unless he was up to something.

Either way, I'm not about to put 17% of my stack into the pot with KQo out of position when the action is open back to the initial raiser. This is either a jam or a fold, and given the action, our hand, and the fact we have 20bb, I think it's a pretty easy fold.

 

[BGinGA]

Fold.

Case for calling: not much, unless you just like the thrill of the gamble.

Case for folding: a lot.
1. You will be positionally disadvantaged for the entire hand.
2. There has already been an initial raise and a reraise, with the original raiser still having action after you.
3. The raise sizing of both players is suspicious -- indicating they want callers -- very unlikely that hero is ahead of either player.
4. If you plan to fold to additional pre-flop action (which is very possible, imo), fold now and use those calling chips in a better spot.
5. KQo is a negative ROI hand when out of position, especially so three-handed with two pre-flop raisers.
6. 20bb is plenty of chips to find better places to use them, and you have a full orbit to do so before being in blind again.

 

[timinater]

Case for a call? Nah, KQo is not going to hold up very well this shallow, multiway. You've got 20 bigs you can pretty much discard the call button at this stage of the tourney. First to act too.

Case for a 4-bet? KQo is not a hand you're going to call with so there could be a case to turn this into a bluff, though again you've got pretty much one shot at it. I don't expect a ton of folds from CO after the min 3bet at this stage. He's likely playing honestly here vs the inexperienced (in this league anyway) player.

Case for a Jam? For a 4bet to work it has to pretty much be a jam. Again , you've got 20 bigs, which is a bit too much to re-shove here with KQ. Feels a bit spewy.

Case for folding? None of the above options are all that great. Muck.

 

[Legend5555]

To be more specific on the ranges, the 60k guy could have just about anything as your description doesn't give me any indication that he knows about stack size considerations. Though, a min raise is still weird.

CO range seems heavily weighted to KK or AA. Seems like 88-QQ, AJs+, AQo+ would just jam if no stack behind had more than 20bb. There is a small chance he is 3 betting small with the intention of folding to a 20bb jam from behind and didn't want to get 20bb in if someone behind woke up with a monster. But that's a really uncommon play.

 

[kmccormick100]

What @BGinGA said. No way I’m doing anything but folding here.

 

[wonderpuddle]

Fold and watch the action play out. The info you gather from how these two played here should pay dividends in future leagues.

 

[Moxie Mike]

What @BGinGA said. No way I’m doing anything but folding here.

OK so that was the easy part. The conventional play is to fold. Nothing earth shattering here but not the only option either.

To be more specific on the ranges, the 60k guy could have just about anything as your description doesn't give me any indication that he knows about stack size considerations. Though, a min raise is still weird.

Sorry it was only my second time playing with the guy and I just don't have more info to share. Two weeks ago I saw him play exactly one hand when we combined for the final table, where he was ultra short and jammed QJo only to run into aces.

CO range seems heavily weighted to KK or AA.

Seems like 88-QQ, AJs+, AQo+ would just jam if no stack behind had more than 20bb. There is a small chance he is 3 betting small with the intention of folding to a 20bb jam from behind and didn't want to get 20bb in if someone behind woke up with a monster. But that's a really uncommon play.

Is it really that uncommon for the chip leader to 3-bet an amount that prevents being priced in to call a shove?

 

[Legend5555]

Is it really that uncommon for the chip leader to 3-bet an amount that prevents being priced in to call a shove?

With people that short behind and the big stack, I think so. He can easily force better hands to fold since people won't want to risk busting with a medium sized stack when a short stack is likely going to get all in.

 

[v1pe]

Min raise from strong player is suspicious. Smells like he wants a call. Even the initial raiser is probably ahead. I'd fold kqo here.

I agree with this...

Folding in this spot based on position and this player min raise. Could maybe be calling in the BB but we have to be extremely tight in the SB IMO. More likely calling in the BB if we were suited.

KQs you could maybe make a case for a jam... But I'm very wary of a min 3bet from a competent player in this spot.

 

[1A25R]

out of position with an off-suited hand that looks promising but value is mehhh..... and hero faces a raise and re-raise.
I fold and fight another day...

The re raise of CO is 16 % of the HERO current stack,
if hero call, the mp can easy call (and this can also bring the BB in due to implicit odd) that will made a 80k pot with 100 behind that requires to HIT the flop or FOLD with a hand that only wins 1 out of 3
nha..
Fold

 

[Moxie Mike]

Thanks to everyone who took the time to chime in. I thought this hand was far more interesting than a simple preflop decision.

To be fair, in the moment I folded the hand without much hesitation for all the reasons that are obvious. But in retrospect, I acknowledge that I did so without much consideration for the additional pieces of information that were available to me in real time - details that I provided in the original post. I may (and probably would) have considered everything and still folded - but I'm kind of annoyed with myself (knowing the results and seeing how all this ties together) for such a knee-jerk move.

I like to think beyond analysis that's limited to only the cards you're dealt and the auxiliary dynamics of tournament play. I am of the mind that there is a perfect play for every situation. With careful analysis and attention to detail, edges are there to be gained.

I am also of the mind that the cards I'm holding only matter if the hand goes to showdown, and if I can figure out what my opponent is holding, I can make the optimal play. It's all about getting your opponent to make the play that adds chips to your stack.

I'll hold off on posting a spoiler for a couple more hours in case anyone else would like to discuss.

 

[timinater]

...I am also of the mind that the cards I'm holding only matter if the hand goes to showdown...

I think you're going to showdown if you do anything ~fancy~ here. That's the crux for me here.

I'm kind of annoyed with myself (knowing the results and seeing how all this ties together)

This is a problematic line of thinking to me. You're reconsidering because you saw the results, and that creates biases in your subsequent thinking. That's the cornerstone in the thinking that you never post results past the point of the question in the hand. When we look at this hand we don't carry that bias that has you second guessing your fold.

My guess is that's why it's unanimously a fold in the feedback you're getting, and why you were wise to post this hand for feedback. We all have our biases, but we are at least able to look at it from a less biased perspective.

Not to totally sidebar the conversation, but I feel most hand histories that get posted are bad beats etc. that people second guess. So many people butcher hands, spike their out and think they are Phil Ivey and never consider they played a hand poorly and scooped the pot.

Posting a "standard fold" hand for conversation certainly doesn't fit that mold. Keep on keepin' on.

 

[Moxie Mike]

This is a problematic line of thinking to me. You're reconsidering because you saw the results, and that creates biases in your subsequent thinking.

You're right in that I might be too close to the situation to be perfectly objective. But the point of posting this was the subtle dynamics that I feel I should have picked up on in real time. I feel I learned from my own reflection and analysis... I hope others can too.

Not to totally sidebar the conversation, but I feel most hand histories that get posted are bad beats etc. that people second guess. So many people butcher hands, spike their out and think they are Phil Ivey and never consider they played a hand poorly and scooped the pot.

Posting a "standard fold" hand for conversation certainly doesn't fit that mold. Keep on keepin' on.

This is standard fold up to a certain level. But I assure you I didn't post this for the attention - if I wanted attention I'd just give away another set of custom chips .

Seriously though, after I post the spoiler, you can tell me if you think it was interesting or not.

 

[WedgeRock]

What Does This PFR Mean?

Pre Flop Raise

 

[timinater]

But I assure you I didn't post this for the attention

Totally. I'm in agreement there and I think this is a decent opportunity for discussion. I didn't mean to imply that if that's how it came off.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Pre Flop Raise

Alright I laughed out loud at that. #epictrolling

Spoiler: Results & Analysis

As I mentioned, I folded the KQo and the BB folded as well. MP called the 8k and the two villians took a flop containing two clubs. MP open shoves; CO instacalls.

MP held .
CO held .

Neither player had a pair. The turn and river improved neither of their hands. MP was eliminated in 6th place.

Analysis: MP min-raised with a (weak) speculative hand, which is consistent with my observation that his bet sizing correlated to the strength of his hand.

The CO's small 3-bet is confusing. It's possible that he intended to make a standard raise and wasn't aware that MP had min-raised - although that seems unlikely given the competency of this opponent. I've never seen him make an error like this.

I don't know what the 3-bet was intended for. Perhaps he wanted to be able to get away from the hand if someone (including MP) came over the top. Or perhaps his goal was simply to fold the button out - guaranteeing him position for all 3 streets (a play that he is certainly capable of).

In any event, the fact that he didn't raise enough to isolate the short stack makes it's clear that he didn't want to commit a lot of chips preflop to this hand. I wish I had picked up on this, rather than waiting my turn, checking my hole cards only to come to the 'nice hand but I can't play these from this position in these circumstances' conclusion and muck them.

So based on this information, I think there's a case to raise to 55k or even shove, which would have ended the hand.

Lastly, knowing the CO as well as I do, I know how a big 4-bet from OOP would have been perceived - he would never call with anything but an ultra-premium hand with that type of strength shown.

Thanks for reading this thread. I hope you found it interesting.

 

[Legend5555]

You can't assume the CO would have a large folding range here based on seeing this one hand. You only know in hindsight that he likely would have folded to a shove. He could have also been looking for action. You just don't know since you had never seen this line before.

 

[Moxie Mike]

You can't assume the CO would have a large folding range here based on seeing this one hand. You only know in hindsight that he likely would have folded to a shove. He could have also been looking for action. You just don't know since you had never seen this line before.

In your opinion, why did he raise?

 

[Legend5555]

In your opinion, why did he raise?

I gave the 2 reasons earlier. It's either what you said, or he was attempting to induce a shove behind. I have to assume that ATs is probably near the bottom of his range if he is competent. But since we have no info on why he would do this move, putting our stack at risk with KQo is just reckless. Sure it might work, but so would a shove with any 2 cards. We can't be results oriented just because we now know why he likely made this raise.

It's a bad play though because everyone is so short. Risking effectively 17% of the BB's stack looking to fold when they shove just seems like a bad idea. Especially if you could get them to fold some hands they would shove if you just shove first.

 

[Moxie Mike]

I gave the 2 reasons earlier. It's either what you said, or he was attempting to induce a shove behind. I have to assume that ATs is probably near the bottom of his range if he is competent. But since we have no info on why he would do this move, putting our stack at risk with KQo is just reckless. Sure it might work, but so would a shove with any 2 cards. We can't be results oriented just because we now know why he likely made this raise.

It's a bad play though because everyone is so short. Risking effectively 17% of the BB's stack looking to fold when they shove just seems like a bad idea. Especially if you could get them to fold some hands they would shove if you just shove first.

I don't think anyone advocates a call here.

This is not being results oriented. This is an exercise in determining the meaning of certain bets from a specific types of players, and how to react to them. If I wanted to be results oriented, I would have posted in the spoiler that the flop came Q-Q-2.

This is also about reading opponents in general, and making plays based on more than just the cards you're dealt and the dynamics of the tournament. Does any play work 100% of the time? Of course not. Are you going to be wrong here and there? Obviously. But having these moves in your playbook makes a difference when the skill gap is small.

The point is that the most risk averse play isn't always best. I made a decision based on risk aversion, which may be the standard play but I'm unhappy with upon gaining additional information and further analysis. The information was there - I just failed to act upon it.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Not really sure why there is any discussion on why hero wouldn't fold.

1. The best case scenario is that hero calls or raises and MP folds and you are in a flip situation.
2. Hero calls or raises and both players stay in. Hero is not going to be a favorite.
3. Hero calls or raises and is behind both MP and CO.

Now granted I saw the spoiler before I posted but that didn't change my thinking as I was reading through the thread. Hero has 20 bb and is on the button next hand. Pick a better spot.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Not really sure why there is any discussion on why hero wouldn't fold.

There was an additional level of analysis that no one here really wanted to get into or perhaps they deem it irrelevant. I posted this looking for opinions on how to range an opponent like this in what I thought was an unusual set of circumstances; instead people replied to explain why this is a standard fold. In fact - in the OP I said this:

***This is less of a 'PAHWM' post and is more intended to be a discussion what specific bets mean from certain types of players. That said, feel free to chime in with any thoughts you have about any of this.***

Our league has a been playing together for a while now - so there's a lot or meta-game that applies. If people aren't interested in 'playing the player' and 'game theory' types of discussions, that's fine. Or if you're just saying that no reads or external information is going to induce you to do anything other than fold in this exact situation given the dynamics, that's fine too but that's really not my game.

Since you've read the spoiler, you know the meaning behind the PF action. I'll certainly be paying attention to see if the pattern repeats itself, and I'll act accordingly.

 

[Steve Birrer]

MM,

I get your deeper analysis but I think the key is "no read or external information" Bingo. Short of seeing their cards this, to me, is a fold. Even if you have an air tight read on both of these players then you are still in flip land unless you think you can shove and induce both of them to fold.

 

[Moxie Mike]

Short of seeing their cards...

This seems to be the prevailing logic.

There are a few players in the league between whom there's no real edge in terms of understanding of hand reading or the shifting dynamics as a tournament progresses. Because of that, the edges are in the meta game. What does he think that I think that he thinks I think... That's how competitive it's become between the regulars.

It's really cool actually to see players evolve and improve... They make adjustments so I need to make counter adjustments. Every league match is like a new chapter in the competition.

 

[timinater]

I think you'd be better bouncing this hand off of another player in the league who has a sense of the history, in this case. We'll never understand the meta game from a four sentence read on the AT villain, so our feedback is lacking and really can't consider that perspective.

I think certainly take this info and move forward armed with this read - it's a great player note, but don't beat beat yourself up relitigating the past. Maybe you could see it and put it together this hand, but moving forward you can make this play with conviction and confidence.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Guess I still just don't understand. If you saw CO cards and knew he had A10s are you folding, calling, or reraising/shoving?

 

[Moxie Mike]

Guess I still just don't understand. If you saw CO cards and knew he had A10s are you folding, calling, or reraising/shoving?

Does CO know I know his hole cards?

Assuming not, I shove there. He's smart enough to 1) perceive a 4-bet shove from the SB as a massive show of strength; 2) smart enough not to commit 60% of his stack with A-10; and 3) knows that if he doubles me up I'm going into big stack mode and he's going to face a lot of pressure with his short stack..