UTG+1 AK (1 Viewer)

[Gunnar]

So playing 100/200kr (1/2$)
My stack 70kish
Villain 22k

500 straddle to me and I make it 1600
Villan makes it 3600
All fold to me and I flat with AKo

Board

Action on us
Pot 7900
Villain has 18.400 left

 

[Perthmike]

Check and hope he jams.

If not, then I’d pot the turn.

 

[DrStrange]

I agree, this is a candidate for a tricky trap. No villain reads though, so assume loose, sticky somewhat passive (which makes you wonder what the 3-bet was - QQ+, AK?)

Note that I range villain with few or no weaker aces - AA / KK / QQ / AK only. AK is always a chop. Hero gets stacked vs AA. The trick is to get value from underpairs like KK / QQ. Patience is essential.

Check/call flop.

If the flop was checked through, Hero has a tougher decision on aggression vs trapping on the turn. I lean towards giving another chance to villain to bet

If the flop went bet/call then Hero should check again.

Two streets of value is best case. Hard to imagine getting all of villain's stack, but let's give him/her a chance.

Hero needs to be mindful that a free card isn't free to Hero - there is a 5% chance of disaster for each card Hero gives letting villain draw for his two-out set.

DrStrange

 

[ilovegravy]

I think the circumstances are such that your range is pretty wide here. Villain's range is a bit more defined with the 3 bet. I check the flop and hope he bets enough to commit himself. If he does, I flat and jam the turn.

 

[Gunnar]

I agree, this is a candidate for a tricky trap. No villain reads though, so assume loose, sticky somewhat passive (which makes you wonder what the 3-bet was - QQ+, AK?)

Note that I range villain with few or no weaker aces - AA / KK / QQ / AK only. AK is always a chop. Hero gets stacked vs AA. The trick is to get value from underpairs like KK / QQ. Patience is essential.

Check/call flop.

If the flop was checked through, Hero has a tougher decision on aggression vs trapping on the turn. I lean towards giving another chance to villain to bet

If the flop went bet/call then Hero should check again.

Two streets of value is best case. Hard to imagine getting all of villain's stack, but let's give him/her a chance.

Hero needs to be mindful that a free card isn't free to Hero - there is a 5% chance of disaster for each card Hero gives letting villain draw for his two-out set.

DrStrange

My tought.
There is one pair of AA left in deck. So I'm pretty sure I'm ahead or tied there are 6 possible AK hands out there.

On the other hand there are three possible KK hand and 6 QQ.

So if that is our range we are
1/16 behind
6/16 tied
And 9/16 Infront.

I think that QQ will never call a strong bet on the turn and KK is similar.

So after that thought I check the flop and he checks behind.

Turn is

Action on us

 

[ilovegravy]

Are either of hero's cards a diamond?

 

[DrStrange]

Does Hero hold the ace or king of diamonds? I don't really fear a diamond flush draw, just asking for clarification.

I am inclined to give villain a second chance to bet because I expect him to fold KK or weaker to a bet from Hero.

 

[Gunnar]

Sorry I have AcKs

 

[Perthmike]

I still think a pot sized bet is in order. I’d normally agree with @DrStrange and his trap suggestion, particularly at a $5/$5 table, but on 1/2 people are generally crap and don’t like to fold. I’m putting in a pot sized bet here in order to commit his stack before a river jam.

 

[ilovegravy]

With hero not having a diamond, villain could have a lot of hands that just picked up equity from a second diamond hitting the board. I think it's time for us to try to get some value from this hand. I would lead out here for about 2/3 pot and hope villain continues with a worse hand than our TPTK. I think villain can easily continue with TT+, almost any ace, and diamond draws.

 

[Steve Birrer]

This is why dissecting hands and the permuations before further streets is critical. The second diamond on the board is a potential concern especially since Hero doesn't have a diamond. Hero may not be the only one trying to trap here. One of the hands villain could have and played this way is AdKd. And Hero could get crushed. But in that case Hero probably loses his chips anyway. So I think I'd lead out after the turn (and I think I would have bet post flop to start with).

I guess the real thinking has to be is what hands can Villain hold that he could have played this way (the three bet pre flop) to where a flush draw is bad for Hero?

a. If Villain started with AdKd then Hero is drawing dead and can only chop. Bet or don't won't change the outcome since Villain never folds.
b. If Villain started with KdQd then a bet on the turn would be valuable to either get equity in the pot or to flat take it down and not worry about a flush on the river.
c. If Villain started with any pocket pair Hero is really only worried about AA, 99, or 22. Not knowing Villain its hard to judge but hard to believe Villain three bets pre flop with 99 and for sure with 22. So its unlikley that Villain holds a set of 9s or 2s. A set of A is a potential. Lead out and if Villain shoves then Hero probably has to call and oh well he losses his chips. If Villain started with any other pocket pair then Hero is in great shape.

 

[Gunnar]

I bet 7000 , Villain snap calls.

River is

Action on us. He has 11400 left

 

[Kain8]

He can't have now, so unless he has the flush, you're winning.

But at the same time, you won't make any more money if you just open shove and he folds. And it's pretty weak if you check/fold if he shoves on you given the size of the pot now. I would check and call pretty quickly if the villain shoves.

 

[Steve Birrer]

So the snap call on the turn has to worry you a bit. Your 7000 bet was near pot size so him calling and barely getting 2-1 seems to indicate he's on some sort of a hand with a even better draw. He didn't shove so I don't think he has a set or he would shove over top your turn bet to protect himself from a flush.

So what hands can he have (unless he is a donk)? AdQd is now likely in play but would he have three bet preflop with that? Maybe. Ad9d? Unlikely given his preflop three bet but possible. 99 still possible and 22 still possible but I think thats a stretch even for a loose player. To me he almost has to have an A at a minimum. Is your two pair good enough to win this one? Tough to say but I would definitely check (taking my time) and watch is reaction and how he bets. He's really only has two choices now. Check or shove. Hope like heck he checks and if he shoves I am thinking long and hard about this before I call.

I am pretty tempted to fold given the way he has bet this hand.

 

[ilovegravy]

I think if villain has a set, I think he is going to raise this turn, especially given the size of hero's bet. I also think the second diamond on the turn is an ugly card for anyone who flopped a set and would probably coax them into getting it in now. Based on these assumptions, I think we can rule out out AA, 99, 22, and 55.

KK is still in play and is now beating us. But I also think villain can find a call on the turn with most AX combos, especially because action on the flop checked through. Villain may be unconvinced you hold an A and willing to showdown with top pair.

All of this said, we seem to lose to more hands than we beat here. I probably check the river and tank if villain shoves. Sounds cliche but I'd just have to go with my gut if it came to that.

 

[Steve Birrer]

I think if villain has a set, I think he is going to raise this turn, especially given the size of hero's bet. I also think the second diamond on the turn is an ugly card for anyone who flopped a set and would probably coax them into getting it in now. Based on these assumptions, I think we can rule out out AA, 99, 22, and 55.

KK is still in play and is now beating us. But I also think villain can find a call on the turn with most AX combos, especially because action on the flop checked through. Villain may be unconvinced you hold an A and willing to showdown with top pair.

All of this said, we seem to lose to more hands than we beat here. I probably check the river and tank if villain shoves. Sounds cliche but I'd just have to go with my gut if it came to that.

As I said before I don't think Villain has 22 and for the same reason I don't think he has 55. I have a hard time seeing Villain three bet preflop with either of those hands. Unless he reads Hero's preflop raise as total bluff he has to know at BEST 22 or 55 is a flip. 99 is even marginal but I could see a three bet then but I wouldn't.

 

[Frogzilla]

Hard to fold out better or get called by worse on this runout. I check and hope he checks back. With that little behind, we are getting great pot odds so I’m calling down if he jams...but doesn’t look good.

 

[JustinInMN]

So how many diamond-diamond hands can he 3 bet preflop? I think it's just AQ, and I wouldn't even 100% count on that. So against an average player, I'd almost rule out flushes except for the one combo of AdQd whatever percentage he would 3-bet that instead of flatting. We have top two pair, so we really only lose to sets if we face a shove. KK makes some sense. He's trying to see if you're willing to two-barrel and improved. There is one combo of AA, but could he check behind, call with that hand. Is he 3-betting the pairs preflop that make the other sets? Maybe 99, but again, check behind and flat the turn?

Problem is it's hard to get value here either, especially with the K coming. He either moved ahead or it just got much scarier for QQ, JJ, TT to call a bet. (If we are against this, it's a really good thing we bet the turn.) So I don't think I like betting the river, but I think we can check and have a good enough hand to call a shove in case he decides to turn his hand into a bluff. We'll expect to be shown the AdQd or KK once in a while, but we'll catch some bluffs as well, hopefully.

If he's not at all bluffy, then it's not a snap call.

 

[Gunnar]

So I bet 15k making him all in. He snap calls with 99

I get the feeling now that the river bet was a mistake

 

[ilovegravy]

I find it odd that he slow played the turn with a flush draw and a wheel draw out there.

 

[JustinInMN]

So I bet 15k making him all in. He snap calls with 99

I get the feeling now that the river bet was a mistake

So his pf 3-betting range is a little wider than you initially assessed. The good news is that means tt,jj are also in range making the turn bet better as far as going for value.

It's tough to play the river, because this is a really strong hand but the way the board ran out is still feels bluff catchy because it's so hard for him to have 2 pair aside from ak himself unless you have a9, k9 in his pf 3 bet range. If he can have those hands, he can have aq, aj which makes the river shove better. The river shove also makes sense if you think he can have and pay off with AQ, AJ as a pf 3-bet.

But if he doesn't have that the only way to gain from situations where you have the best hand is to let him bluff.

 

[gadgetmcnasty]

I lead. This flop hits villains 3B range more than it does hero’s calling range even though it’s under-repped. Lead, call a shove. Get stacks in.