$1/2 NLHE: Flopping an Ace OOP with ATs (2 Viewers)

[jbutler]

Playing $1/2 NL at Parx very late (5am-ish) and this hand came up.

Relevant villain is an unknown to me. I don't play much at Parx anymore so I don't know all the regs like I used to. Evidently this guy moved here a couple months ago from Austin, TX, but he's here enough to know all the dealers and some of the waitresses. I heard him discussing strategy a bit with a neighbor, but it's always difficult to know whether he's purposefully leveling the guy as I would or speaking honestly. So let's just say I'll presume he generally has some idea of what's going on. He sits with $450 and I cover.

He raises to $8 in MP and the button calls. I look down to see AThh in the BB and call. There were some shenanigans going on at the table and I had bet in the dark preflop twice in the last orbit versus a guy who called my preflop raise and checked dark both times. Both times I had AK and both times I flopped top pair. Once the guy just folded to my dark bet and the next time he min-raised and I overbet jammed and he folded.

So when I call the guy says, "So can you bet in the dark when you weren't the one raising?" "Sure I'll give you $12" and I bet $12 dark. Sometimes you have to swim with the fishies when you play super late on the weekends and I like to appear to be a guy who gives a lot of action even if I'm actually pretty tight when any reasonable money goes in. You can criticize the dark bet, but that's not really the point of this hand.

Flop ($25): AKQr with one heart.

MP calls my $12, button folds.

Turn ($49): Ac bringing backdoor clubs.

My play?

 

[Mr Tree]

Someone will probably explain why this is the worst possible play in a minute but I think I'm taking a check call line here for pot control to try to avoid playing for stacks against a potential AK/AQ

 

[David O]

Let's call out the master!!! Calling @DrStrange !

 

[Mr Tree]

Jack, how deep are you and villain?

 

[EasyE]

Someone will probably explain why this is the worst possible play in a minute but I think I'm taking a check call line here for pot control to try to avoid playing for stacks against a potential AK/AQ

I thought the same.

 

[onerand]

I don't expect to be bluff raised and would bet. Bet river too. Get looked up by a king.

 

[DrStrange]

Ick! This hand is going to devolve into a guess how deep everyone is thinking.

Hero flats the flop after looking at his hand. He is not playing the hand blind but he does bet the flop blind. Three way action, $25 in the pot less the rake. Hero is betting $12 prior to seeing the flop.

Hero hits the flop, making top pair. Maybe that is good for him, maybe not. Villain calls the $12, not raising. I see his range here as quite wide. Villain knows Hero often times missed the flop and Villain has some social pot commitment due to the induced dark bet by Hero. (we can only imagine the trash talk that might come if villain folds to the blind flop bet.)

Button folds, leaving us in a pure "who has the longer $^&^%" situation. Heads up, $49 in pot less rake.

The turn is mostly a brick. Hero is going to be guessing at which line to take.

1) Hero could take a passive line and hope villain bets the weaker end of his range trying to establish dominance over Hero. The biggest risk here is Hero gives up at least one bet from villain when villain holds a weaker hand and is the type of guy who is happy just to get to cheaper showdown.

2) Hero could take an aggressive line and force villain to call down his weaker hands. This line generates bigger pots. Hero also exposes himself to villain making a "pride" raise that Hero might not like calling, but likely will feel obligated to call.

My plan would be check/call turn. Check/call a river brick. If the turn goes check/ckeck, then bet $25 on a river brick.

Sadly we are in a hand where we need to "play the player" but we don't know a lot about him.

DrStrange

PS I do expect a "bluff" raise is plausible. In part because villain might think a hand like KJ/KT/QJ/QT is good. Hero's line looks like it is complete BS and villain could think any pair is good. Also this is a male dominance situation which leads to a lot of air being introduced into villain's range. Villain will earn significant "street cred" at the table by winning the hand with aggression.

 

[courage]

Since villain's A-rag hands just upgraded to a chop on the turn, I'm probably chk/call turn and river. We're either tied or behind his better range, and it allows him to bluff the lower end. If clubs factor into his hand, nice catch buddy.

 

[jbutler]

Jack, how deep are you and villain?

Villain started with about $450 and I cover.

I don't expect to be bluff raised and would bet. Bet river too. Get looked up by a king.

Great minds...

Button folds, leaving us in a pure "who has the longer $^&^%" situation.

It seems like Vegas Vacation really let an easy one go by not having this among the games offered at that shitty casino. I would play.

Okay, so back to the lecture at hand.

Ace pops on the turn and in approximately 1/10th of a second I have all the thoughts expressed by Doc above except his prescription for how to play the hand.

So I fire $25, half pot, looking to get looked up by a King, a really suspicious Queen or god knows what else this guy has in his range. Guy thinks for maybe 5 or 6 seconds and calls.

River ($99): 4s

What to do...what to do...

 

[manamongkids]

Obligatory fold pre comment

 

[DrStrange]

I vote check/call. Hero is in a RIO situation. Let's give villain some rope and hope he bluffs at the pot. If Hero has to bet, it is absolutely a bet/fold situation.

Even nitty me isn't folding a suited ace for $6 this deep.

 

[jbutler]

I don't have a lot of confidence that $1/2 players do enough river bluffing to make it profitable to check/call.

 

[Marius L]

Seems pretty reasonable to belive we are ahead or at least splitting in this spot, and seems like a good spot to fire again on the river. Maybe bet half the pot ish, and I belive you will get looked up by a decent amount of Ks and maybe even some Qs. If villain has Kx/Qx in this spot, both turn and river seems like good cards for his hand.. Check/calling river also seems like an ok option, but he will surely check down all his ks and qs, which mean we loose out on quite a bit of value from his hero calling range. To make up for this, we need villain to bluff the river a decent amount, but I dont think he will have hands without any showdown value here enough. Cant really put him on many draws that have missed completely which could potentially bluff the river as many straight draws with a J or T seems to often have a pair here as well, and might therefore be less inclined to bluff. (like KJ, QJ, KT, QT) I doubt he will call two streets with hands like T9, or other gutshots with no pair.

Villain will obv fold some of his bluffcatchers to the third bullet here, and we do open up to a nasty raise posibility, but I still think there's more value in betting than check/calling river. If villain somehow has a full house here, we are loosing the same amount by check/calling as by bet/folding anyways.

 

[jbutler]

Seems pretty reasonable to belive we are ahead or at least splitting in this spot, and seems like a good spot to fire again on the river. Maybe bet half the pot ish, and I belive you will get looked up by a decent amount of Ks and maybe even some Qs. If villain has Kx/Qx in this spot, both turn and river seems like good cards for his hand.. Check/calling river also seems like an ok option, but he will surely check down all his ks and qs, which mean we loose out on quite a bit of value from his hero calling range. To make up for this, we need villain to bluff the river a decent amount, but I dont think he will have hands without any showdown value here enough. Cant really put him on many draws that have missed completely which could potentially bluff the river as many straight draws with a J or T seems to often have a pair here as well, and might therefore be less inclined to bluff. (like KJ, QJ, KT, QT) I doubt he will call two streets with hands like T9, or other gutshots with no pair.

Villain will obv fold some of his bluffcatchers to the third bullet here, and we do open up to a nasty raise posibility, but I still think there's more value in betting than check/calling river. If villain somehow has a full house here, we are loosing the same amount by check/calling as by bet/folding anyways.

Almost exactly all my thoughts. Though I would advocate a slightly smaller river bet. Maybe 1/3 pot. Villains in live poker tend to be too unaware of pot size to understand that $50 isn't a nut hand here. This guy might be an exception to that rule but I think by downsizing out river bet we get more Qs to call as well.

 

[bergs]

I don't have a lot of confidence that $1/2 players do enough river bluffing to make it profitable to check/call.

This is exactly why I bet the river. If we get raised (at 1/2, anyway) it's almost always going to be a by a better hand and we can safely fold.

I'd bet $75 on the river.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

A4 just binked a boat on you. Sorry Jack nh gg.

 

[bergs]

Is there an argument here that if you really think villain has a K or Q, you check-call turn hoping to setup a bigger bet on the river that looks bluffy but gets snapped off?

 

[jbutler]

Is there an argument here that if you really think villain has a K or Q, you check-call turn hoping to setup a bigger bet on the river that looks bluffy but gets snapped off?

Yeah I think that's a fair possibility. Probably would depend on knowing more about villain and knowing if he'll stick to a read and call a big bet with a bluff catcher.

 

[Jimulacrum]

The turn bet is solid. Checking would control the pot size, but it would also show weakness and make his hand more ambiguous, and you still have another street to play out of position. A modest bet here is a good investment.

Another half-pot bet on the river seems right. He seems to have some strength, but it's either a marginal two pair, or he's trapping with a boat (I think we'd have seen a raise from TJ by now). This is actually a great spot for a bet because he may pay off with a lot of meh hands, but we can still safely fold to a raise (one of the benefits of not showing weakness on the turn; it's now unlikely that his range includes many valueless hands).

The main thing that makes me wonder if he has you beat is that you posted this thread in the first place.

 

[courage]

I don't mind a turn bet but my rationale for chk/call was that based on the banter and general awareness the guy isn't brain dead. I'd bet into a drooler on turn, but thinking opponent with big hand is going to flat turn. The flip (see wut I did there) side of that is will the guy level himself into hero calls on turn and river.

I don't see a huge benefit on turn either way re: betting or checking. But imo the river is more difficult to play if we're called on turn.

Agree that at 1/2 most will not bluff river. As played if betting turn I'm also betting river, typically 65 or so for me but that depends on your usual bet size in this spot.

So you led river then he jammed?

 

[jbutler]

So...

I bet $40 on the river and he makes it $140. So $100 to me to win $279.

 

[bergs]

Bye Bye, reluctafold. This sizing is never a bluff at 1/2 (I have never seen a post-oak bluff at 1/2, and none of mine have ever worked, lolol). Anyway, he's got a hand he's very, very comfortable with and unfortunately AK and AQ both fit (particuarly AQ). If he's looking at it from your perspective, if you have an unboated A and get raised on the turn, you're going to fold, so he can call and then let you lead out the river.

Jim - i was only advocating that check-call turn, bet-fold river line if Butler read was very very strong on a K or Q for villain. Versus unknown, it's a bet-call turn, bet-fold river.

 

[Jimulacrum]

So...

I bet $40 on the river and he makes it $140. So $100 to me to win $279.

Gotta fold, even if deep down inside we'd hate for him to be making a monkey out of us. If he's pulling off a multi-street float-bluff, good for him.

I don't see this line ending in worse than trips even the bare minimum 26.4% of the time required to be break-even. Not even with you beating up on him the previous couple hands.

 

[jbutler]

I thought this was basically the easiest fold in history and I did so I don't know what he had exactly but conversation came up without my involvement as to whether he had a boat and people actually argued that he might not. He basically never has less than a boat here right? I just can't conceive of a player at $1/2 floating twice with nothing and then making a big move. The bet size is just icing on the cake to cement that he has a boat.

At least that's how I read it. Any disagreement?

 

[courage]

No argument here. AQ or AK confirmed.

Good fold. (Needle. Just practicing for March).

 

[BGinGA]

FWIW, I'm check/calling both turn and river. As played, well, I'm a calling station. Not surprised when he turns over AQ, AJ, AT, KQ, or JT. OTOH, I suck at 1/2 NL....

I don't think he floats/raises with nothing. But he doesn't necessarily have a boat.

 

[DrStrange]

AJ is a chop. . . one ray of hope.

 

[Marius L]

Seems like there's so many boats in his range here. Ak aq kk qq and I guess even a4 all seem reasonable. Although kk qq might be a bit scared he is probably still raising them on the river. I hate folding, but I think I would have to do it here, just no value hands we beat. I mean, what is he ever bluffing with? Not really many missed draws he can have, and the 4 on the end obviously doesn't change anything. I guess we might split a small amount here.

 

[Mr Tree]

Instant fold. That bet after the initial raise and then the obsequious calls on the flop and turn just reeks of a boat.

 

[Trihonda]

Had this (nearly) exact hand happen last night. I had A10 heads up in a 1/2 game. Played a little nittier (table wise). Board ran A4AK8 (rainbow). On the button, I led out each street, and the villain flatted. Except the river, where he C/R my $25 bet to $65. The way it played, I put villain on a weak A. I was right (sorta), when he rolls over A4 after I paid him the extra $40. I felt like my hand (A) was somewhat disguised, like maybe I had a K or a 4 and was betting position. Meh. It was after a very long day of pokerz.

But in this thread's hand, I would have snap folded a $100 raise in this spot.