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$1/3 NL: River bet-sizing with the very disguised nuts OOP (2 Viewers)

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jbutler

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Weird hand. One of those one-in-a-million spots that don't really do us any good to dwell on, but is interesting nonetheless.

Second hand of my regular Friday $1/3 NL game. First hand I barreled double barreled with bottom pair to river bottom two pair versus a complete fish. One guy loudly jokingly points out that I had bottom pair when I bet flop/turn and I joke that I'm due to lose a few buy-ins at this game.

So this second hand I'm dealt 8cTd in the BB and there's a straddle on. Four call the straddle, I complete from the straddle and the straddler checks.

Straddle is the only relevant villain and is horribad loose passive, but I have seen him get aggressive on rivers. He is very polarized when he does turn up the heat at the end.

Flop ($37): 8d9dQd

I bet $12, straddle calls, all others fold.

Turn ($61): 8s

I bet $40, straddle raises to $80, I call.

River ($221): Jd

Straddle started the hand with $300, so he has $202 behind.

My play?

Feel free to critique the rest of the hand if you care to, but I'm primarily interested in the river.
 
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I would jam, especially if both of you have a lot behind. Would be very bad if he checks behind a with a strong hand.A check-raise might look so strong that even a horribad player might find a fold.
 
Definitely betting. What's the range you're assigning to him on the turn when he raises? Not sure if the raise reps a made straight or a flush draw. It's a 4 flush on board so if you think he has a straight you're betting small, if you think he made any sort of flush you're jamming.

If he's typical 1/2 casino player, he probably had a straight and won't call a jam with the 4 flush on board, so I think I'd bet around $75.
 
bergs said:
Definitely betting. What's the range you're assigning to him on the turn when he raises? Not sure if the raise reps a made straight or a flush draw. It's a 4 flush on board so if you think he has a straight you're betting small, if you think he made any sort of flush you're jamming.

If he's typical 1/2 casino player, he probably had a straight and won't call a jam with the 4 flush on board, so I think I'd bet around $75.
Click to expand...

Yeah the issue is the size of the bet imo. I mean, what is raising the turn with, right? Maybe he flopped a flush and was waiting for a non-diamond turn card, but also got a little scared of the paired turn, so min-raised rather than put in a bigger bet? Maybe he flopped a set, but flatted due to the monotone board and then decided to guarantee a call with a min-raise on the turn thinking I was betting my flush?

I really don't know. Played with him only once prior to this session and my thoughts in the OP are pretty much all I have in terms of player analysis. The answers to the questions above make the difference between a $75 and a shove, I guess.
 
Best case scenario: Villain turned a boat, which I think may be the case with the min-raise. This is a move a lot of bad players make to try and price you in when they could be betting more and getting the same result. Bet $80 and let him shove.

Worst case scenario: Villain has a straight and this card will kill further action. Maybe we're lucky and Villain has Ad with a T, but not likely. Bet $80 and Villain may think he's committed too much not to call.
 
Look disgusted and check.

No not really. We can't hope he bets, I think anything upto $75 would get called by any flush he likely has.
 
Shove. A guy who hates folding that much will find a reason to call with any flush.
 
jbutler said:
Yeah the issue is the size of the bet imo. I mean, what is raising the turn with, right? Maybe he flopped a flush and was waiting for a non-diamond turn card, but also got a little scared of the paired turn, so min-raised rather than put in a bigger bet? Maybe he flopped a set, but flatted due to the monotone board and then decided to guarantee a call with a min-raise on the turn thinking I was betting my flush?

I really don't know. Played with him only once prior to this session and my thoughts in the OP are pretty much all I have in terms of player analysis. The answers to the questions above make the difference between a $75 and a shove, I guess.
Click to expand...

I can't possibly imagine a hand where anything less than a 5/10 NL reg min-raises turn with a 3 flush on board and is happy to see a 4 flush land. Maybe he has the nut flush, but not enough of the time to jam and maximize value.
 
You clearly have to continue your pattern and bet 4 chips.

On the flop you bet $12, 4 chips, 2 x $5 + 2 x $1.
On the turn you bed $40, 4 chips, 1 x $25 + 3 x $5.
So on the river your only choices are $60 (2 x $25 + 2 x $5) or $80 (3 x $25 + 1 x $5) or $100 (4 x $25)

Of course chances are you screwed the whole thing up by using 8 chips on the turn. In that case you have the option of going either 12 or 16 chips on the river. That gives you far too many options ranging from $60 to all-in.

But in all seriousness, I'm slightly torn between betting about a third of the pot and just shoving. I have a feeling in the moment, without giving it a whole lot of thought, I would probably just lead out with either a $60 or $80 bet.
 
jbutler said:
Flop ($37): 8d9dQd

I bet $12, straddle calls, all others fold.
Click to expand...

I hate this bet, we're OOP on a super coordinated/wet flop and we're betting 1/3rd the pot into multiple opponents. Either bet something with some oomph to it ($24-28 sounds about right) or check and see what transpires


Turn ($61): 8s

I bet $40, straddle raises to $80, I call.
Click to expand...

I like a bet anywhere between $40-50 here, looks good. Not sure what the straddle is trying to rep here, or if he's just angling for a check from you on the river so he can check behind, that could be the case. I mean, the only hand that he could legit have here is 99 making that play. he doesn't have QQ because of the preflop action, there are three of the four 8's accounted for so it's hard for him to have an 8 in this spot, although I suppose he could have a similar hand to yours (8 with a flush draw, or he could have Q8 I guess, I can't discount those completely, but given it's the case 8 I have to give it less weight)

River ($221): Jd

Straddle started the hand with $300, so he has $202 behind.

My play?
Click to expand...

Shove. If villain has a straight and not a flush he's going to be hard pressed to pay off any smaller bet. Likewise if he has three of a kind but is not full and doesn't have a flush he's unlikely to call a smaller value bet. So we want to shove for the times he is full or has a strong flush so we can get max value for our straight flush here.
 
My rule of thumb is you profit most when you jam with the nuts, assuming the pot is significant relative to the stack depth. Here a jam is less than pot sized, thus all-in is the most profitable bet. Yes villain might fold this time but over a large sample the bigger bet pays off.

DrStrange
 
Random question, but when did casinos switch from 1/2 to 1/3. I personally have not played any 1/3, as most of my casino play is at FW and MS in Conn.

Is there a good reason or is it just a step up in stakes from 1/2?
 
I think this is a home game but some "premium" casinos (Bellagio, Wynn, etc) spread 1/3 instead of 1/2 and sometimes offer a bigger max than $300.

For the people advocating a shove, I'd normally agree with you but the 4 flush polarizes things a bit doesn't it? You want to give him a price that makes him look at the pot and sigh-call with a straight. If he has a boat or quads, it's very unlikely that he's just flatting so you'll get it in that way. Any sorta shove is easily going to scare away straight and set hands (and maybe even A-high flush with the board paired with Butler leading every street).

I seriously doubt villain is going to sweat the Td straight flush. Hero led out the whole way and his hand, from villain's perspective, does not look like it improved on the river.
 
bergs said:
I think this is a home game but some "premium" casinos (Bellagio, Wynn, etc) spread 1/3 instead of 1/2 and sometimes offer a bigger max than $300.

For the people advocating a shove, I'd normally agree with you but the 4 flush polarizes things a bit doesn't it? You want to give him a price that makes him look at the pot and sigh-call with a straight.
Click to expand...

What price do you believe he would pay off with a straight on a four-flush and paired board when we fire the river after he minraised the turn and we just called?
 
I'm pretty sure we are losing value if we bet small in these spots. With the nuts against a bad player that is repping a big hand I will try to get it all. From my experience many players at this level usually just raises with the nuts on the river, so I don't think we are guaranteed to get a raise even i he has a boat. Our table image after the action in the first hand might also convince him that we might be able to bluff here and call us down light.
 
If casino, could you qualify for bad beat jackpot? Something to consider? If not, I would agree on the $80ish range bet, double the last bet amount.
 
Another thing to consider is: would this player be bad enough to jam with anything but the nuts here to try and force a fold from Hero? If yes, then jam away because he won't be able to see past his own tendencies and make the call.
 
Anthony Martino said:
What price do you believe he would pay off with a straight on a four-flush and paired board when we fire the river after he minraised the turn and we just called?
Click to expand...

Certainly not a jam unless he felt we were 3 barreling, and the river literally made every draw that might be out there.

We've led every street. I think a river check would look suspicious. I'm betting the river but I want to size it so that a straight calls and a good boat jams. I thought that was $80.
 
bergs said:
Certainly not a jam unless he felt we were 3 barreling, and the river literally made every draw that might be out there.

We've led every street. I think a river check would look suspicious. I'm betting the river but I want to size it so that a straight calls and a good boat jams. I thought that was $80.
Click to expand...

Villian took the lead on the turn by raising our bet and we only called, so not sure how us checking would look "suspicious" (although I still am in the shove the river camp)
 
It seems to me the crucial questions are:

(1) When he holds the nut flush, how often does villain fold to a $100 bet and how often to a shove?
(2) When he holds a full house, how often does villain flat $100 or how often does he shove over the bet?
 
Shove. It ticks off the poker gods when you do anything less with your rivered one outer.
 
jbutler said:
It seems to me the crucial questions are:

(1) When he holds the nut flush, how often does villain fold to a $100 bet and how often to a shove?
(2) When he holds a full house, how often does villain flat $100 or how often does he shove over the bet?
Click to expand...
1. I dunno, but I bet that the difference in fold ratios isn't enough to compensate for the lost winnings from under betting.
2. Who cares, he's never folding to a shove so just gii
 

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