$1/3 NL: River bet-sizing with the very disguised nuts OOP (1 Viewer)

[kirchhausen]

It seems to me the crucial questions are:

(1) When he holds the nut flush, how often does villain fold to a $100 bet and how often to a shove?
(2) When he holds a full house, how often does villain flat $100 or how often does he shove over the bet?

Also 3) How often does he have a FH, how often does he have the nut flush, how often less?

 

[jbutler]

1. I dunno, but I bet that the difference in fold ratios isn't enough to compensate for the lost winnings from under betting.
2. Who cares, he's never folding to a shove so just gii

The reason we should care about number 2 is so that we can determine how often we can get value from his weaker calling ranges. If he will always jam with the full house then we can focus exclusively on number 1 since we will never lose value versus a full house no matter what.

 

[DrStrange]

I find it curious that there is a sizable fixation on straights but hardly a peep about flushes weaker than ace high.

DrStrange

 

[courage]

I think a shove is by far best here. If villain holds A or K high flush, he's calling, along with any full house. As for his weaker flush holdings, I don't think we worry about losing value here. The bet, board, and your image are bluffy enough that he may find a call with a mid-range diamond. If not, drag the pot and don't show.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

It looks like a horrible run out for is. I suppose a check jam could work if you think villain is weak and prone to bluffing at it. If not, jamming is your best bet to get max value.

 

[MikesDad]

Random question, but when did casinos switch from 1/2 to 1/3. I personally have not played any 1/3, as most of my casino play is at FW and MS in Conn.

Is there a good reason or is it just a step up in stakes from 1/2?

In MD, one casino spreads 1/2 and the other 1/3, I assume just to be different

 

[jbutler]

Ok I guess not much more to discuss.

I thought for about 5 or 6 seconds and moved in. Villain tanked for like 25 seconds and folded face up K8 with the K of diamonds.

Maybe the one hand that makes sense on the turn that doesn't call river, though. I generally agree with the jam advocates.