1/3 NLHE, AKo UTG against agitated Villain who doubled me up on previous hand (1 Viewer)

[Ben]

Must-fold. You can't just be giving villains credit for being able to turn a decent hand into a bluff here for $1300 (although it would be a very good play by villain.. ) - 98% of villains don't have this move in their arsenal. Villain can easily still show up with KJ, a slowplayed set, or a backdoor flush. For $300 I'd rather have seen how he got there on me though.

 

[derekdd23]

Since the river bet was relatively small your bet looks to me pretty weak he can be doing this with a hand as weak as a middle pair or as strong as a set. SInce you are playing 1-3 the range is usually towards the stronger side so I fold and find a better spot.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

1000 to win 2280? We only have to be ahead 30% of the time here to break even. With his penchant for picking spots, plus his anger at the last hand, I think we're north of 30%. If our hand is polarized the way we play it, and we seem nitty, we shouldn't be able to call a shove here (villain's thinking). So of course we have to.

 

[gopherblue]

I can't post, because I know what happened, but what Chippy said.

 

[jbutler]

1000 to win 2280? We only have to be ahead 30% of the time here to break even. With his penchant for picking spots, plus his anger at the last hand, I think we're north of 30%. If our hand is polarized the way we play it, and we seem nitty, we shouldn't be able to call a shove here (villain's thinking). So of course we have to.

IMO live $1/3 players go through the (correct) thought process you describe well under 30% of the time, probably less than 10% of the time, and the majority of those times are going to be when they've gotten to the river with a bricked draw and are mentally scrambling to find a way to win the pot. The vast majority of players wouldn't even understand why they should turn a king into a bluff here even if it did occur to them.

I'm folding.

 

[bentax1978]

I can't post, because I know what happened, but what Chippy said.

And yet you posted.

 

[jbutler]

I can't post, because I know what happened, but what Chippy said.

And yet you posted.

Yeah I know what happened too, but I'm still posting. I'm not a part of your system.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I've gotta agree with Jack (let's not make this a habit!) that it's going to be pretty rare to find players at 1/3 with the skill level to run a bluff in this spot. I'd say 10% of the players or less are likely to make that play. Usually players at these lower limits are going to show up with better than a one-pair hand in this spot.

I don't hate Ben's check on the river, it was my initial thought, but my concern was that it might embolden villain to make a pot-sized bet and put us in an awkward spot.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Agree that its not common at $1/$3, but this guy seems to think he's a great player, so maybe we can give him a little more credit than that, and he may not be a level one or two thinker. Also, ever consider the possibility that he was jamming any river heart, regardless if he thinks his king is good, because "nitty hero can't call?" I've certainly seen people do that plenty at these limits. I just think our hand is so polarized and our reputation is so nitty (it already was, then you checked twice on a seemingly non-scary board with an overpair), that villain thinks we can never have the flush there, and will have to fold even a set. I mean who wants to lose back their whole stack after just winning a huge hand, right?

 

[bentax1978]

then you checked twice on a seemingly non-scary board with an overpair

I'm not sure I would call 889, two clubs "non-scary". As it turns out, my nitdar was right and I was waaaaaaaay behind on that one


but your point is well taken and relevant to this hand.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Not saying you weren't, but from his perspective that's a nitty play by you. Most people are c-betting that flop (or turn) at least once.

 

[bentax1978]

Not saying you weren't, but from his perspective that's a nitty play by you. Most people are c-betting that flop (or turn) at least once.

Fair enough.

 

[bentax1978]

(REAL) RESULTS

So let's rewind the hand a bit. This is what actually happened:

Hero went ahead and made it $300 and the staring contest started again.

This time it was only for about 10 seconds before Villain starts counting out enough black chips to put me all-in. He looks down at the 13 chips and pushes them forward, putting me all-in then goes back to staring at me. At this point I was trying to figure out what I'd do if he pushed. I was torn between calling and folding because part of me knew that the $300 bet might have looked weak and he might think there's no way I'll call $1000 off with a hand like AK/AA. The longer he waits and stares at me, the more I have trouble believing that he actually has the better hand. But at the same time all I have is TPTK, and it's entirely possible he turned two pair or even a set.

After another 20 seconds of staring at me, he finally shakes his head a little, pulls three chips off the stack of 13 chips, throws them into the pot and calls.

I turns over the AK. He looks back at HIS hand a couple times before finally turning one card over exposing a king. I wasn't sure if he was part of the Nutter Butter club, so I waited until he mucked his hand before letting myself exhale a sigh of relief.

He said he was planning on pushing me all-in on the river because he was almost certain I had AK and thought I wouldn't call an all-in with TPTK. He never elaborated on why he changed his mind, perhaps he only separated the $1300 in chips out to see my reaction and try to get a better read.

I framed the end of the hand the way I did because what I am really wondering and would like opinions on is 1) what would I have done if he actually did put me all-in and 2) did my actions up until that point leave me in a vulnerable a situation that could be too easily exploited; Had he pushed, I think there's a pretty decent chance I would have (incorrectly) folded.

 

[bergs]

I'm calling. I think a villain that can run a 1/3 buyin into 3-4K is the kind that will turn his hand into a bluff here with an inferior king. Really unlikely that he has a flush unless it's something like A8 (because the flop was rainbow and the Kh is on the flop). I call and cry when he shows A8hh.

 

[manamongkids]

Call, I think these hands are always posted in the forums when the Hero was correct, AND won the hand. #ForumTell

 

[Forty4]

I liked the way you did this.

 

[Adam Crowley]

It's great you posted this way. I actually think check/calling river is better. The staring constest generally is saying I don't believe you and I'm calling.

If you check the river he can bluff a lot of his missed draws and weaker made hands. Expect a large bet though, I would anticipate a bet of pot size or larger to try and move you off your hand. if you elect to check you have to call.

 

[thorwilliam]

It's great you posted this way. I actually think check/calling river is better. The staring constest generally is saying I don't believe you and I'm calling.

If you check the river he can bluff a lot of his missed draws and weaker made hands. Expect a large bet though, I would anticipate a bet of pot size or larger to try and move you off your hand. if you elect to check you have to call.

There was no draws on the flop, so unless you think he was calling the overbet on the flop with a backdoor draw there are no missed draws on the river he could bluff with. I don't think players turn top pair type hands into bluffs too often either, so by checking here you lose value.

 

[Adam Crowley]

Yeah you make a great point. The overbet on the flop kind of rules out calling with speculative hands on the flop. I didn't think of that.

I retract my previous statement and stand corrected.

 

[Ronoh]

I retract my previous statement and stand corrected.

I'm sorry, I just... oh wait I just saw that you are Australian! That explains it!

Robin, not only were you wrong, but you stubbornly stuck to your guns and insulted me in the process. Congratulations, you are an American!

 

[Adam Crowley]

I'm sorry, I just... oh wait I just saw that you are Australian! That explains it!

I think I missed the joke.

 

[onerand]

It would be an interesting river spot, with the history. Results aside, there are problems with this hand. You put yourself in a spot to bet 500bb with one pair and a stack to pot ratio of 20 on the flop. With the flop overbet and your continued action you are correct that your hand is face up as either AK or aces. These hands are the same if shoved on. To your advantage is villain probably does not expect you to fold.

I wonder if he shoves a non-heart river. A better line for him Is raise turn, shove river. Interesting hand.

 

[MatB]

A pretty decent chance you would have folded if he pushed all in?

 

[BGinGA]

Wondering how much he would have bet if you had checked....... and if you would have called. And whether or not a check would have also generated a staring contest......

 

[Adam Crowley]

Wondering how much he would have bet if you had checked....... and if you would have called. And whether or not a check would have also generated a staring contest......

GTO staring strategy dictates a state of at least 40 secs, a Sutton motion on all in, 15 more secs of staring and a sigh check

 

[bentax1978]

It would be an interesting river spot, with the history. Results aside, there are problems with this hand. You put yourself in a spot to bet 500bb with one pair and a stack to pot ratio of 20 on the flop. With the flop overbet and your continued action you are correct that your hand is face up as either AK or aces. These hands are the same if shoved on. To your advantage is villain probably does not expect you to fold.

I wonder if he shoves a non-heart river. A better line for him Is raise turn, shove river. Interesting hand.

Yeah, overall I wasn't very comfortable with the way the hand played out. Not sure if I mentioned it earlier, but my intention was a pot sized bet on the flop, not an over-bet, I just miscounted the number of people in the hand by one. Regardless, I'm not sure it would have changed things much.

I think I was "saved" by the fact that Villain couldn't be sure I'd fold AA/AK to a shove. The truth is that I almost certainly would have (folded) to a shove, as backed up by @MatB's multiple laughing emojis above. Right or wrong, my bet of $300 on the river was made (in part) to protect against a shove.

Wondering how much he would have bet if you had checked....... and if you would have called. And whether or not a check would have also generated a staring contest......

Had I checked the river, it certainly would have been interesting to see what he would have done given that his hand had some showdown value. If I check, does that reduce the likihood in his mind that I have AA/AK? If so, maybe he does check and try to win at showdown with top pair. Or would he still put me on AA/AK and think I was just scared of the heart? If so, how much would he have bet to try and get me to fold the better hand?

As far as what I would have called, anything up to $300 would have been a pretty quick snap call just given the pot size and circumstances. For a bets closer to the size of the pot ($500-700), it would have put a lot more pressure on me and I can't honestly say I know what I would have done (other than stare back at him).

 

[MatB]

I think if you had checked the river villain was 99% checking too.
You had him a little on edge and his King had showdown value. Why would he bet? To be called or raised by a better hand?

So really it looks like you knew what you were doing and extracted a little more value out of villain.

 

[bentax1978]

I think if you had checked the river villain was 99% checking too.
You had him a little on edge and his King had showdown value. Why would he bet? To be called or raised by a better hand?

I think a lot of villains would check back, but there are certainly reasons to be bet instead. The primary one would be if the Villain simply didn't believe he had the best hand. Yes, having top pair gives him showdown value, but if he's convinced I have AK or AA, then it doesn't matter if he has a lesser K or nothing at all, he would lose. So from Villain's point of view, there's a $700 pot sitting out there and he may feeling betting (and getting me to fold) is his only realistic way to win it.

Of course that assumes he's almost certain his K wouldn't actually win at showdown. Is it possible I raised preflop and then fired two bullets at the pot with a hand like QQ (or other PP)? Sure it's possible, and if Villain thinks that's a somewhat likely scenario then he can check and try to win at showdown. But the way the hand played out preflop, on the flop and on the turn, it's much more likely in Villain's mind that I have him beat at this point with a hand like AK/AA.

So really it looks like you knew what you were doing and extracted a little more value out of villain.

That's really the key, make it look like you know what you're doing

 

[Adam Crowley]

If tilt was no consideration of course he would check. Tilt removes a lot of logic from the equation. Calling the river bet is terrible enough to make me believe that villain could bet a large % of the time on tilt.

 

[bentax1978]

If tilt was no consideration of course he would check. Tilt removes a lot of logic from the equation. Calling the river bet is terrible enough to make me believe that villain could bet a large % of the time on tilt.

His frame of mine was certainly a consideration in this hand, and it's why I mentioned the previous hand in such detail.

In my mind, his call on the flop and turn could have been anything from slow-playing a set to a small pocket pair. His whole plan could have been to push me off the hand on the river for all I know. Like you said, a good amount of logic needs to be removed from the equation based on the circumstances.