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$2/5 NL: Flop middle set and everyone is coming along... (1 Viewer)

J

jbutler

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Relevant villains:

UTG+1: good, nitty reg, Moshe, mid-30s, still on initial $500 buy-in. Played many hours with Moshe. He's not totally incapable of trying something creative, but it is a rare occurrence. Typically he just semi-nut peddles.
MP: semi-unknown late 40s donk who has proven totally horrible, into the game for approximately $1200, currently sitting with $400ish.
BB: break-even to slightly losing female TAG, 30ish, Melissa, $600ish.

I cover all villains (including irrelevant 4th caller).

I'm UTG with TT and I make it $20. All of the above plus SB call.

Flop ($100): QT4r

SB and BB check. Spoiler alert: I'm betting. How much should it be?
 
Yeah this isn't really the interesting part of the hand, really. Obv bet is obv. I guess we could debate sizing. I went with 65. THREE CALLERS. WTF? The three players referenced above.

So onto the turn:

Turn ($360): (QT4) 8c

This also puts a club draw on board. BB checks to me. My action?
 
I bet $70. For a 2/5 game, the preflop raise seems smallish, so I am assuming the game is kind of smallish (considering stacks also). I think this bet will get called by all OESD, all queens, AK, 88-JJ. All the other junk should fold (even the bad player should fold random backdoor wheel draws and such). Any turn cards that complete a straight I would probably slow down, even gutshots.
 
ohikthxbye said:
I bet $70. For a 2/5 game, the preflop raise seems smallish, so I am assuming the game is kind of smallish (considering stacks also). I think this bet will get called by all OESD, all queens, AK, 88-JJ. All the other junk should fold (even the bad player should fold random backdoor wheel draws and such). Any turn cards that complete a straight I would probably slow down, even gutshots.
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Standard raise is probably $25. The game is a $500 cap buy-in, so typically the weaker players at the table have $500ish stacks and the better players are deep. Obv variance along brings enough exceptions to that, but that's the standard situation. We got into a good situation here in the sense that we got two of the weaker players to call preflop and one of the stronger players is typically pretty nitty and shortish stacked.

As to my preflop raise size, my sizing tends to follow a sort of bell curve. The earlier or later I am the more likely I am to raise smallish whereas from MP I'm more typically making it $25 +$5 per limper. Part of my reasoning in a situation such as this is that I am almost always getting at least 2 callers and I'm not dying to play a big pot OOP. If, for instance, the board comes 9 high, I want to be able to bet for value without committing myself with a weakish overpair (or maybe second pair to the board) by the turn or river depending on the number of villains in with me.

I'm definitely open to discussion as to my PFR size. My NL game isn't what it used to be and I've been working to improve lately at the expense of my PLO, OE, and O8 sessions.
 
Yucky turn card, but you are committed and the donk still has chips in front of him. Bet $180.
 
We're playing for stacks at this point no matter what. Effective SPR is less than 2 and we're holding the third nuts with redraws against anything but QQ (which is probably not out there). If someone has 9J, he's getting our money.

But we don't want 4-way action going into the river. The pot's already quite large, and there are plenty of made hands we can get action from that aren't 9J.

Shove. Hopefully scare off the draws but snag someone holding a smaller set or two pair.
 
We are missing Hero's table image. That likely matters a lot.

Flop - Hero should bet his normal c-bet size. $65 seems fine. QT4r isn't that wet, if Hero bets too much it might well take down the pot when he would rather have a caller drawing thin/dead. I am already leaning towards being pot committed after the flop action.

Turn - not the utter brick Hero might have hoped for, but not as bad as an ace or ten. Pot is $360, effective stacks are $300, $400 and $500. I don't really worry about going 4-way to the river because the effective stacks with be trivial.

I want to bet enough that a hand like QJ will call. If Hero has a LAGish table image, all-in seems best. If Hero looks TAG, then a smaller bet might be needed - say $250. If Hero hasn't been around these villains much, I would default to all-in.

DrStrange
 
DrStrange said:
We are missing Hero's table image. That likely matters a lot.
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Good call. As for my image with Moshe, it is TAG with a spew button. I have made some plays that he would deem dumb, but I do not (i.e., raising EP with 66, calling a small shove; raising with top pair/gutter and calling a 2.2x shove). I don't think they were particularly spewy given the spots, but I know he would. MP will regard me similarly (after all he is the one I called with top pair/gutter and sucked out on) and Melissa has just been moved to the table and has seen few hands. If she remembers our past games, she would likely simply think of me as "tight".

I'll leave the turn action open to hear some other opinions before I reveal my action.
 
Agree with what's been said so far. Pf seems standard. I'd bet $75 on flop usually.

Moshe and Melissa not supposed to have J9 in this spot if nitty/TAG. So I'm all in on turn.
 
Surprised to hear the shove suggestions. Do we really think we're getting called for an over pot sized bet by TAGs? Seems like our only hope with that bet would be if the donk turned two pair somehow or just couldn't fold two clubs after finding a flush draw on the turn.

Anyway, I bet $220 and Moshe thinks for about five seconds before shipping for $440 and change. MP folds. Melissa asks for a count of Moshe. She then moves in over him. Total to me is $325.

My action?
 
manamongkids said:
stick your head back in your turtle shell and fold
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Can you put someone on QQ here? If not it's $325 to win $1900 if the board pairs... not folding. Slim possibility we're ahead as well.
 
I'm rarely folding here, sans some sort of really strong read.... Straight draws and clubs still out there, set of 8s possible.
 
I don't know if it's mathematically right or not but I don't think I'm good enough to fold here. Very skeptical that either opponent has QQ.
 
It rarely is proper to fold a set flopped ~100bb deep (or in a low SPR situation).

Hero should call, likely will lose a lot but the pot is huge relative to the cost.

I could see QQ pop up in rare cases, but also AA or KK could be in the mix too. I am also mindful of Hero's image - the villains might well be "trapping" Hero with AQ/KK/AA. TAGs can get a little crazy trying to deal with a competent LAG.

Rivering a ten would solve any potential problems -=- DrStrange
 
PF standard.

I probably bet a bit less on flop ($50) - dry board and I want calls from TAGs with AT/KT (and also want to be able to c-bet with air for less $$$ in this spot.)

Turn is eh, need more specific reads on villains - most of the "TAGs" I know aren't calling another bet here with QJ whether it's $125 or $200 or a shove. If the spewtard is the stabby kind of spewtard I'd strongly consider checking. Otherwise I probably bet something like $175 targeting AQ. We don't really want to give a free card here if we can help it.

Turn action is a bit disturbing but I'm still pretty much fist-pump getting it in - if we're up against QQ it's a huge cooler (44 much more likely given PF action) and if one of them shows up with J9 we still have more than enough outs. I still expect to be ahead the majority of the time.
 
This is pretty much why I was advocating for a shove.

Check-folding is obviously out of the question. If you check or bet too little, you're inviting draws. If you bet enough to price out draws (say, $200+, like you did), you're not getting away from the pot. Shoving harnesses all of your fold equity for the same total dollar amount you'd end up paying anyway.

Now that we're in the spot, we're getting laid $1,565 to $325, or about 4.8:1. Between the possibility we're ahead and our redraws if we're behind, I don't think we can ever fold here unless someone tables QQ mid-decision.
 
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Speaking as a nit, I can see Moshe showing up with QQ. He only calls preflop to make sure an A or K does not come on the flop. Once he sees a safe flop, he goes into trap mode. He calls the flop bet planning on betting the turn.
 
I hate having to catch up with one card to come even with all those outs, and as a nitty tag I see j9 under the bed all day with this board and action. But that's just my feeling I have as I push my chips out, for all the reasons from the odds I'm getting to the real possibility I am ahead I am never getting away from this hand at this point.

I do think to myself "should have shoved on the turn instead of betting 250" as I put my chips out as well though. Will be interesting to see the result and imagine what would happen if we shoved on the turn.
 
Not folding. Like turn bet. See no need to shove. Want villains to call with whatever.
 
Leonard on flopping a set: you can win a little or win a lot but you will almost never lose a little.

Call and hope for the board to pair. I am never folding here.
 
Leonard said:
Leonard on flopping a set: you can win a little or win a lot but you will almost never lose a little.

Call and hope for the board to pair. I am never folding here.
Click to expand...

Definitely need more in the "Leonard on..." series. Love it.

Still see literally no point to turn shove. Why would I want any fold equity? Maybe shoving makes it "easier" in the sense that I have no more decisions to make but that will always be the case no matter my cards, the board, or the other players in the hand. I want calls.

I like Ben's thought re: targeting AQ with a slightly smaller bet, but also like my sizing to target stronger hands and draws since we have three other players in the hand who will very reasonably have those hands in their ranges.

No results yet. Surprised people are so skeptical that I am losing here and should just straight up do the math to determine whether to call. Ordinarily I would say if I'm getting 4:1 here it's a call but when you pull out a couple of those outs due to people likely holding board cards and sprinkle in the very rare QQ, we're probably more reasonably looking to get something like 6:1 imo. At least 5:1 depending on how often you think I'm good here without the river.
 
There are six unknown cards in the three hands that called the flop.

Hero assumes that two of them are likely a jack and a nine, leaving two hands that called with "something", one of which wants to play for stacks. "worst" case, three of hero's ten outs are dead (lets say pocket fours and AQ) plus one out is poisoned because it makes quad fours. (and WORST case is hero is facing QQ drawing at one out)

We can see four board cards plus the two in our hands. We have also accounted for six cards in villains' hands. 6 outs in a stub( plus burns/folds ) of 40 cards = 15%

(the hand history is vague about the money involved, I'll just make it up.) Pot odds are crudely paying $320 to win $1,880 or 17%. Actually there are two pots - a $200 side pot and the $1,680 main pot. This will get to be more messy than I am willing to work out, but I suspect Hero is mostly a lock to win the side pot where I expect to see a hand like AQ/KK/AA (yes she could have QQ)

Part of my snap call but expect to lose a lot line is I expect both villains could hold hands drawing thin/dead vs Hero. TAGs calling preflop with J9 is questionable - not impossible, but questionable. It is a lot more in character for someone to hold AQ and the other to be playing a big pair(trapping) The lines from both villain's look a little off. Could be hero was dead on the flop facing top set. Could be someone tried being sneaky with an over pair. Could be they took a flier with J9 and hit the nut. But the hand is being played 100bb deep. This is not the time/place to find a hero fold.

DrStrange

PS for what it is worth, I expect QQ more often than J9.
 

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