$2/5 NL: Flop middle set and everyone is coming along... (2 Viewers)

[Jimulacrum]

Why would I want any fold equity?

Because when we're ahead against a made hand, we're way ahead, like 19:1 if not a lock.

When we're ahead but against draws, we could be as little as a 2:1 favorite against an OESD and a flush draw, essentially gambling at even money with 2 opponents.

This follows from the premise that we can't get away from this hand at this point, though, so it's only a question of how to best use our remaining effective $500 or so. If we leave open the possibility that we can get away, it's a different decision, but I don't think it's prudent to do that with the third nuts and SPR < 2.

 

[courage]

Please spin me a yarn about rivered quads that were unnecessary. I just dusted off $1100 in two days after grinding back to even both times.

Sincerely,
Homeless in River City

 

[ohikthxbye]

Because when we're ahead against a made hand, we're way ahead, like 19:1 if not a lock.

When we're ahead but against draws, we could be as little as a 2:1 favorite against an OESD and a flush draw, essentially gambling at even money with 2 opponents.

This follows from the premise that we can't get away from this hand at this point, though, so it's only a question of how to best use our remaining effective $500 or so. If we leave open the possibility that we can get away, it's a different decision, but I don't think it's prudent to do that with the third nuts and SPR < 2.

shoving turn is horrible in my eyes. OP is exactly right, we do not want fold equity here... if we shove the only hands that truly call us are hands that already have us beat. If a worse hand was going to call the shove, they will call all other bets and still stack off on safe rivers (and we are way ahead like you said). I am not advocating folding either, but I would not be at all surprised to see J9 in any of the villains hands because of the way they all played the flop.

A few options

1. I would make a decent bet and call all raises expecting to see J9 and hope to pair up

2. Check raise a bet to get it in.

Both seem like they are burning money a little bit, but I am probably not folding a set for 1 buyin with villains described. If they had J9 I would muck and tell them I had AA.

 

[DrStrange]

The pot is $360 - villains have $300 / $400 / $500 back. A jam is not that big of an overbet.

 

[jbutler]

The pot is $360 - villains have $300 / $400 / $500 back. A jam is not that big of an overbet.

People who know the pot size and understand bet sizing even a little know that moving in is "not that big" of an overbet, but in live poker a shove in that spot, in my experience, folds out all but sets and draws when the draws are held by morons.

As to the results, my thinking in game was that I was getting almost exactly the right direct odds on my money to boat up and so I called.

Wheel card club on river. Melissa tables J9 and Moshe snap tables J9 for the chop before realizing Melissa had J9cc. I muck and say nothing obv.

The main question I had with this post is whether I should have called the turn. Seems near unanimous that I should have but honestly I'm still not sure.

 

[ohikthxbye]

I am really confused. Do we want people to fold value hands we dominate? I understand people will have draws here, but one of them already hit. If we are going with the hand anyway, then a shove is a bad move IMO. People fold more often to bigger bets. I doubt the people he is playing with are thinking of SPR.

If I am trying to get it in, I am just check raising if I think anyone will bet and 4 ways, I think this is extremely likely.. Specifically, it could introduce dead money into the pot if people call prior to your check raise and make your call more correct even if you are behind. Otherwise you win all the monies.

 

[DrStrange]

We want to get people to pay the wrong price with hands that need to improve to win. Yes, we want them to fold their winners but that is mostly due to our aggression with drawing hands and other types of bluffs. If I have a made hand, I am betting for value and want calls. Never expecting folds from a better made hand.

As for both villains holding J9 . . . well who would have thought that from two TAGs?

DrStrange

 

[Jimulacrum]

I am really confused. Do we want people to fold value hands we dominate? I understand people will have draws here, but one of them already hit. If we are going with the hand anyway, then a shove is a bad move IMO. People fold more often to bigger bets. I doubt the people he is playing with are thinking of SPR.

If I am trying to get it in, I am just check raising if I think anyone will bet and 4 ways, I think this is extremely likely.. Specifically, it could introduce dead money into the pot if people call prior to your check raise and make your call more correct even if you are behind. Otherwise you win all the monies.

Now that I think about it more, I think I like this play better than a straight shove. I didn't have a check-raise in mind because it seems like a passive table, but it may be the best way to bet it all, if stacks are going in the middle no matter what.

The main question I had with this post is whether I should have called the turn. Seems near unanimous that I should have but honestly I'm still not sure.

As a place to start, if our opponents have 9Jo and 9cJc, we're about 23% or a 3.35:1 shot, getting 4.82:1 on the turn call. Even if a queen was out in the other player's hand, we're still only 3:73:1, so it's a definite call.

Anyone holding QQ in any scenario obviously kills us, but that seems like a slim possibility given the action. What makes it an awkward decision is the chance that we end up against 9J and a smaller set, in which case we're about 5:1 (or 5.3:1 if it's Jc9c) and it's a close fold. Being against queens up and the straight is worse than 5:1 too. But in balance with all the various possibilities, I think we're getting good enough odds for a call.

 

[Ben]

Wheel card club on river. Melissa tables J9 and Moshe snap tables J9 for the chop before realizing Melissa had J9cc. I muck and say nothing obv.

Did Moshe proceed to berate Melissa for "calling with that trash?" If not, fail.

 

[manamongkids]

Can you put someone on QQ here? If not it's $325 to win $1900 if the board pairs... not folding. Slim possibility we're ahead as well.

As the hand played out, I'm folding, not going to be happy about it, but I'm still folding