$2/5 NLHE: Bet bet bet after 4-bet pre (1 Viewer)

[jbutler]

Wasn't in this hand, but saw it go down last night and I've been thinking about it since.

My impressions of the players before this hand: UTG is a good player who prior to this hand I would call a good LAG. MP is as TAG as they come, very solid. Stacks are $2,300 effective (MP covers).

UTG raises to $25
MP 3-bets to $75
UTG 4-bets to $175
MP calls

Flop ($357): QQJr

UTG checks
MP bets $205
UTG calls

Turn ($767): (QQJ) 4

UTG checks
MP bets $475
UTG calls

River ($1717): (QQJ4) 9

UTG checks
MP bets $1,100

What range would you assign each player here?

 

[manamongkids]

UTG AJ suited, AQ/AK. 99+

MP same range, minus AJ and 99. 10s+ AQ AK

 

[snooptodd]

I'd put MP on at least AQ, possibly JJ. UTG I'd guess has AA or KK and is in a tough spot?

 

[jbutler]

What are our thoughts about the minimum range for MP to be making good decisions to be betting as he did? Same question as to UTG and his check/calling? What does he have to have to call here?

My thoughts in-game without any knowledge of their hands was that MP had at minimum KK, but I couldn't decide whether the river is a bet if MP has KK. I had sort of the same thought for UTG. KK is a pure bluff catcher in UTG's spot, no? If UTG has AA he can possibly put MP on KK, but when MP bets, can he have KK?

Thought it was a very tough one to think through while UTG tanked after MP's bet.

 

[Forty4]

I don't see UTG having less than JJ. I don't think he would 4-bet with AQ, maybe AK but unlikely. With the subsequent action AQ is a possibility but I don't think he would get that crazy I would think he would have just called the raise and not re-raised. I could see MP having AQ and why he just called the re-raise and all of the subsequent action support that (or JJ). I think if MP had AA or KK it would have gone check-check on the river.

Waiting for the results...

 

[Forty4]

What are our thoughts about the minimum range for MP to be making good decisions to be betting as he did? Same question as to UTG and his check/calling? What does he have to have to call here?

My thoughts in-game without any knowledge of their hands was that MP had at minimum KK, but I couldn't decide whether the river is a bet if MP has KK. I had sort of the same thought for UTG. KK is a pure bluff catcher in UTG's spot, no? If UTG has AA he can possibly put MP on KK, but when MP bets, can he have KK?

Thought it was a very tough one to think through while UTG tanked after MP's bet.

If MP has KK doesn't he put in one more bet pre with position? Also wouldn't he slow down on the river?

 

[Ben]

I don't like UTG's line with anything except maybe QQ or QJ. That said, I could see him showing up with AA-KK, or a weak Q that he just decided to 4-bet with. If he knows his own image MP shouldn't be betting the turn with AA-KK, much less the river. If I'm MP I don't bet river without AQ, MAYBE KQ if I feel like embracing variance. If I'm UTG I don't see MP ever showing up with a bluff, although possibly overvaluing AA-KK - though it's tougher for him to show up with those just flatting the 4-bet pre and also QJ is not in MP's range, although it could be in UTG's. So pretty much the same spot for UTG - I call with AQ, with KQ I agonize forever but may find a fold (without any other info/reads than what was provided.)

 

[bergs]

MP has AJ, AA, KK, or JJ. UTG has AA or AQ.

 

[stocky]

I'd put UTG strong with 4 bet AA or KK maybe AK but as played I'd throw out AK. Depends on how LAG he really is preflop. I struggle to imagine any less OOP that he 4bets.

MP 1010+ AJ+ His 3bet indicates some strength but not enough to 5 bet? As played I wouldn't be surprised with QQ or JJ with UTG calling hoping he shows up with AJ.

 

[DrStrange]

We are deep - 460BB or so

UTG - Preflop raise then 4-bet vs a solid tag. Lets say 88+, AQo+, AJs with a thin layer of suited broadways, suited connectors and smaller pair. UTG creates an "M" of 6, the domain of one pair hands and TAGs and has already made a mistake if the isn't playing a top 2% hand.

UTG flop - check/calls the flop. Danger danger danger - LAGs who don't bet here worry me, I find a sudden switch to passive mode a clear warning. Primary range, KK, AA, {AQ, QQ, JJ trapping} Could be KQ

UTG turn - check/calls the turn I'd fade out the trapping hands a bit, and lean more to AA or KK

UTG river - check/? If UTG calls, AA/KK rarely KQ. If UTG jams the last $345, then he was trapping with AQ/QQ/JJ. Not totally out of the question to see 99 pop out of UTG's hand but that would be bad.

MP - preflop, 3-bets the OOP LAG and then flats. 88+, AQ+ occasionally a smaller pair or a suited ace. I'd fade out AA/KK a little due to the lack of a 4-bet.

MP flop, bets 60% pot when checked to. I see his whole range as plausible.

MP turn, bets 60% pot when checked to. Now, AA/KK/QQ/AQ/JJ. Must be mindful of getting trapped by UTG

MP river, bets 65% pot but not all in, leaving $345 behind. AQ/QQ/JJ. It seems unlikely that MP would make that last big bet with AA/KK

DrStrange

 

[Forty4]

Great detail @DrStrange

 

[Mr Tree]

Curious about the result on this one.

 

[courage]

UTG = AA, KK or AQ.
MP = JJ, AQ.

There can be some air in the ranges I guess, esp if they have history and a leveling war, but by the time we're at river, I think ranges are pretty narrow, esp MP to fire river. If he was barreling, nhgg but he's repping da monstah.

 

[jbutler]

Not a lot of response, but I guess that's sort of what you get when you don't post the holdings and just ask people to speculate.

As I was watching I came to basically the same conclusions that all of you did: that MP was holding at minimum AA, very likely AQ/JJ. And then I thought, "But that river bet is lol donkey-tastic if he has AA."

If MP has AA here and he has basically no fear of being put to the test give the shallow remaining effective stacks, is his big bet defensible? My thinking is that there's a slight possibility you could get UTG to pay off with KK, but that literally 100% of his remaining range either snap folds or snap shoves the rest. Or perhaps on the uber rare occasion that you both have aces, you can get him off a chop.

Any further thoughts? I'll reveal results later today, but I'd like to get some response to the above. I mean, AA would be the ultimate in thin value by MP there.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I could possibly see MP having AA and UTG having KK. If I'm MP holding AA, could I seriously think UTG has a queen or JJ in his hand the way it unfolded? I would think he would raise the turn or lead out on the river if he was super strong.

MP has AA, QQ, or JJ. If he really is as TAG as they come, I don't even think he has AQ here (callng a big four bet with AQ doesn't sound very taggish to me).
UTG has AA or KK. If he knows how tight MP is, he can't expect MP to barrel again on the river, so he would lead out with a really big hand. Small chance that he has KQ and is worried about AQ here, but I think that is a very small portion of his range.

 

[courage]

Yeah I think it's defensible esp if they are aware of each other's image. UTG/LAG has taken a chk/call line the whole way, normally not a LAG line, and MP has the opportunity to rep the big hand on river.

I agree ranges are pretty narrow on river. If MP has kk that's turning his hand into lol bluff. But I think you can argue it's a good bet given the action? Maybe not so much for thin value but merging his range to get AA KK to fold... if he thinks UTG is capable of making the laydown and basically can't call without at least a Q.

 

[Forty4]

I think if MP had AA he would have put in another bet pre. I could see him just calling pre with KK.

If MP has AA here and he has basically no fear of being put to the test give the shallow remaining effective stacks, is his big bet defensible? My thinking is that there's a slight possibility you could get UTG to pay off with KK, but that literally 100% of his remaining range either snap folds or snap shoves the rest. Or perhaps on the uber rare occasion that you both have aces, you can get him off a chop.

Any further thoughts? I'll reveal results later today, but I'd like to get some response to the above. I mean, AA would be the ultimate in thin value by MP there.

I don't think I could make that bet with AA and would be happy scoping the $855 that's his money in the pot, for exactly the reasons you stated that it's a snap decision. Risking another $1,100 to find out you either won or lost doesn't sound like a good play.

 

[Mr Tree]

I think if MP had AA he would have put in another bet pre. I could see him just calling pre with KK.

This deep I can absolutely see a flat call with KK pre on the four bet. I have more than a few regulars who would make this play consistently.

However if he is making this bet on the river with KK you have to be thinking you are trying to bluff AA or another KK off of their hand right? Seems like an odd play for a guy we have labeled as a TAG unless our label is somewhat misapplied.

 

[DrStrange]

I can't give UTG much of a LAG range by the river. I'd feel differently if the original post listed UTG as a total lagtard, but he isn't described that way. LAG, yes but competent. LAGs splash around, occasionally make a big bluff but they just don't check/call off their 460bb stacks.

I wouldn't make a river bet with AA or KK and might not make it with AQ because I can't figure out why UTG has this passive line unless he is trapping. Check/call three times after a 40-bet preflop? Lots of ways MP is going to get toasted.

DrStange

 

[jbutler]

This deep I can absolutely see a flat call with KK pre on the four bet. I have more than a few regulars who would make this play consistently.

However if he is making this bet on the river with KK you have to be thinking you are trying to bluff AA or another KK off of their hand right? Seems like an odd play for a guy we have labeled as a TAG unless our label is somewhat misapplied.

I have no idea about this guy specifically (it was the second or maybe third time I've played with him ever), but imo a good TAG should have betting people off of chops are marginal-to-good hands in big pots in his arsenal.

I can't give UTG much of a LAG range by the river. I'd feel differently if the original post listed UTG as a total lagtard, but he isn't described that way. LAG, yes but competent. LAGs splash around, occasionally make a big bluff but they just don't check/call off their 460bb stacks.

I wouldn't make a river bet with AA or KK and might not make it with AQ because I can't figure out why UTG has this passive line unless he is trapping. Check/call three times after a 40-bet preflop? Lots of ways MP is going to get toasted.

Not a spoiler to say that those were the respective players' images prior to this hand. UTG I'd never seen before and as above, I'd only played with MP twice or maybe three times.

 

[Mr Tree]

I have no idea about this guy specifically (it was the second or maybe third time I've played with him ever), but imo a good TAG should have betting people off of chops are marginal-to-good hands in big pots in his arsenal.



Not a spoiler to say that those were the respective players' images prior to this hand. UTG I'd never seen before and as above, I'd only played with MP twice or maybe three times.

Do you know if the players in question have any history? If so maybe I can agree. If not this seems like a very aggressive move if done with KK against a player whose range here may not be defined as well as we like.

 

[Forty4]

Not a spoiler to say that those were the respective players' images prior to this hand. UTG I'd never seen before and as above, I'd only played with MP twice or maybe three times.

So UTG has 33 and MP has 22?

 

[Mr Tree]

So UTG has 33 and MP has 22?

I am kind of waiting for at least one of them to show up with something stunning now.

 

[Forty4]

I am kind of waiting for at least one of them to show up with something stunning now.

Yes and then announce "I must have called with something."

 

[Mr Tree]

Yes and then announce "I must have called with something."

Pocket 44 rips AQ a new one

 

[bergs]

I think UTG had AQ or maybe KQ and was good. MP had AA or JJ. That's how narrow I think their ranges are by the river.

 

[bentax1978]

Come on MP, let's see that KTs (y) :thumbsup:

 

[DrStrange]

It is quite plausible that neither player is able to competently play a deep stack. They might have lost perspective and be treating this hand as if they are playing 100bb deep.

But the thread isn't "guess the donkey ranges" we are trying to play the hand as though the villain and hero are skilled and experienced with deep stack play.

 

[jbutler]

Okay results:

UTG calls after a pretty length tank. MP turns over AQ. UTG frustratedly flicks his AA with his finger and mucks.

Been trying to figure out if UTG made a very thin call or just go unreasonably tied to his hand. We chatted a bit later after MP had picked up and UTG claimed that he had been convinced MP had kings.

 

[bergs]

Okay results:

UTG calls after a pretty length tank. MP turns over AQ. UTG frustratedly flicks his AA with his finger and mucks.

Been trying to figure out if UTG made a very thin call or just go unreasonably tied to his hand. We chatted a bit later after MP had picked up and UTG claimed that he had been convinced MP had kings.

I had the hands right but reversed. UTG flatting every street felt stronger than leading out there.