$2/5 NLHE: Planned a steal, but flopped the nutter butters... (2 Viewers)

[jbutler]

Late night session at Borg, decent table, but none of the action players figure into this hand. Villain at issue is a fairly tight guy in his mid to late 40s. The way he's dressed gave me the impression that he'd been clubbing earlier, but doesn't appear drunk or loud. He has about $700 and I cover.

One of the action players has been straddling all night, but inexplicably almost never defends his straddle without a big hand, so when it folded around to me on his straddle, I made it $30 to take down the $17 in blind/straddle money. Instead, the above-described villain called in the BB and the straddle folded. My hand was irrelevant for the purposes of my preflop bet, but I was holding J9o.

Flop ($72): 78Tr

Decent flop for my hand.

Villain checks. My action?

 

[mipevi]

Bet $65 and pray BB hit a set.

 

[Forty4]

Bet $30 again. I'm guessing he has a big pocket pair or AK. I'm guessing your table image would make a check look very suspicious.

 

[DrStrange]

Bet a normal amount, say $50 or $60. Hero will be hard pressed to stack villain unless he has a monster himself or decides to bluff.

Absolutely no slow play here. Hero must bet. If villain missed the whole flop, it isn't getting any better later in the hand.

DrStrange

 

[courage]

Bet $50. Let's start building a pot now. No sense in giving a free card on wet board where a straight card might mean we have to chop. Hopefully villain has a set or overpair and would piss.

 

[jbutler]

Bet $30 again. I'm guessing he has a big pocket pair or AK. I'm guessing your table image would make a check look very suspicious.

Ordinarily you'd be right re: my image but for whatever reason I'd been playing pretty tight. So folks can feel free to take that tightish image into account in their recommendations.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Bet $45

 

[jbutler]

Okay doesn't seem to be too much debate on the flop action as expected. Almost always best to just bet big hands and hope to win a big pot rather than check and give people a chance to get away.

So I bet smallish - $35 - hoping to get a call from any piece and maybe just overs. Villain called quickly.

In my mind the speed of his call is not that helpful. Could mean he's drawing or could mean he's showing me that he's not going to just pussy out to my c-bet and he's calling with any piece or overs like I was hoping. So...the long way of saying I have no idea what he has, though I suppose we can say it's unlikely that he has a set as I would think that would require a bit more deliberation (I bet quickly, so not much time for him to think and he didn't take any time at all after my bet).

Turn ($142): Ad, putting two diamonds on board. Villain checks relatively quickly.

My action?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Bet $95

 

[DrStrange]

I concur, $95 it is.

 

[Kyle]

$100

 

[gopherblue]

Hindo

 

[bergs]

We need to make money on this hand now, on the turn, before the river polarizes everything.

Quick actions usually mean a draw. We haven't really dropped the hammer yet in this hand, so it's hard to tell how strong villain is definitively. Obviously we're ahead but how strong a calling range does villain have will dictate how hard we hit the turn. Let's assume for the moment that he's not playing trappy/tricky.

OESDs and gutshots with overpairs....99 and JJ are unlikely given we hold some of these. He's not calling 69 pre unless his name is Guinness or Bergs. 56, T9, 89 all make sense.

Non drawing hands...KK and AA would've warranted a re-raise preflop (even from the blinds) and definitely a lead bet or checkraise on the flop. QQ is possible. AK makes sense and he'd be ecstatic after spiking miracle turn. Sets are possible and are never, ever folding.

I doubt the diamonds changed much. If he has AK, he can't have diamonds, and if he has one of the straightening hands with 2 diamonds and spikes it on the river, nh,gg.

I don't want to size this bet to setup a big river play because with alot of the aforementioned hands, the river is going to be an absolute brick. We gotta make our kwan now.

I overbet the turn. $250.

 

[Forty4]

For some reason $125 seems right to me. I agreed with bergs above and if he does hold a set I think this bet makes it look like we hit our A but don't like the flush draw. This should induce a big raise from him if he has the set. He might do the same if he does have AK thinking you're testing the waters with a hand like JJ-KK.

You'd be painting a very interesting picture with the smallish c-bet that looks like you want to be able to release the hand if he raises. Now an A pops up and you sort of look like you are repping that with a more solid size bet.

 

[jbutler]

Is there any value in considering whether the ace might not be the best card to bet? Any value in checking through to get his single pair hands to call a river bet whereas he might put me on having raised and c bet with an ace high hand and spike the turn and fold?

 

[DrStrange]

Slow play wins one river bet, maybe. A small one.

Aggression has the chance to win two or more bets with the subsequent bets bigger. Hero needs to reach for the brass ring, the total reward is so much bigger even if the villain escapes a fair fraction of the time.

DrStrange

 

[Forty4]

100% he could put you on the A. I don't think he's flatting the flop with air back door flush draw so the diamond shouldn't factor in too much. I like him for a mid pair range so he either hit his set or has 99 giving him the open ended. Neither of which is folding to a fair size bet. A check could induce a nice bet by villain on the river but that's the only way it'll get you money. I don't think he'd call a river bet unless he has a hand as described above all of which will call a turn and river bet (save the 99 hand). If he does have 99 and a 6 hits river you're getting paid off handsomely as he'll check raise the river.

Only hands you chase away with a bet here are QQ and KK. Not sure how much those hands would call on the river anyways.

 

[bergs]

Is there any value in considering whether the ace might not be the best card to bet? Any value in checking through to get his single pair hands to call a river bet whereas he might put me on having raised and c bet with an ace high hand and spike the turn and fold?

I think you make more money given his range by bombing the turn then you do trying to make a fancy play to induce a bet on the river.

If he has any single pair hand that isn't aces, he's not calling anything except a small river bet. If he has aces, or any one pair hand with straight opportunities, he's probably calling the turn.

 

[mipevi]

A check with this hand on the flop or turn that deep is fancy play syndrome, nothing more. I hate the small flop bet as well, you are just setting yourself up to win less. Oh well, let's hope villain is going for a check-raise, bet $130.

 

[jbutler]

I think you guys are generally right and that I forgot Phil Galfond's rule from back in the day: bet large when your perceived range includes more air and bet smaller when your perceived range includes more nut hands.

So obviously I checked this back. This was the primary question I had about this hand and I think I agree I botched it. Maybe should have bet more on the flop and definitely should have bet the turn. Alas, I am a donk and therefore did not.

River ($142): Ko

Villain bets $75.

Obv I'm raising - no monsters under this bed. How much?

 

[slisk250]

double post - delete it mods

 

[DrStrange]

$292 in the pot after Hero calls. Let's raise half pot or $150 on top.

Thing is a competent villain is going to wonder what Hero could hold that makes sense and the best hand I come up with is pocket kings. (raise preflop, bet the flop with the over pair, check behind when the scary ace hits, now lead out with second set.) I expect villain could easily take a bet/fold line. Still, half pot is hard to resist if villain has a good top pair hand.

DrStrange

 

[mipevi]

I expect villain to fold bluffs and single pairs to any raise, so just target his two pair plus range. Raising now, our hand really looks like JQ, so I just click it back for $75 more. A reraise from villain and we prolly have to fold.

 

[Marius L]

agree with the others here that checking back the turn seems like a bad play compared to just a regular bet. I dont really like the over bet either as I think that will fold out a lot of AJ AQ AK that floated the flop. It will also fold out all draws.

I would probably have bet 125 ish on the turn. I agree though that betting there will make him fold out a lot of his one pair hands that does not include an ace, but thats fine. the ace might not be the best card for you, but I dont think its too bad either. It gives him some two pairs or some AK AQ AJ variants.

As played I would raise the river to something like 250 total, and hope he gets stubborn with two pair or AQ/AJ,but his smallish bet seems pretty weak, and I expect him to fold here a lot

 

[H|Q]

Ask how much he has left, then fold after he counts it down.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

$180 on top.

 

[guinness]

Whenever I flop the nutz, I play strong from beginning to end. Its translated as buying the pot due to my image, but of course the other reasons stated apply as well.

I'd bump it to $180 total and throw up on a jam.

 

[bergs]

The only JQ he can have is really JdQd. If he has that, nh gg. If he has AK or a set, he's not folding no matter what we do. I'd tank for a long time (so for you, like 60 seconds) and then make it $275. If he jams I'm snapcalling.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I mean, Butler did check back the turn. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the villain floated one street with two overs and a gutshot. That being said, it's a very small part of his range, so I think a raise is definitely in order.

 

[courage]

I prolly would bet the turn $100-120 figuring it helped villain improve or he's way behind and won't pay off anyway.

River action I'm raising him $100 to $175 total. If he jams, bleh. Into the tank we go.