$2/5 PLO: OOP with a hand that looks bigger than it is (1 Viewer)

[jbutler]

I've been running hot as the sun, but I have hit a couple hands that made me wonder how I could have better played them for max value.

Here, I had AT98 with nut hearts in the straddle and it limped around to me 4 ways. I checked.

Flop ($50): T92r

Not bad. One check to me. I bet $35 and get one caller from MP. The caller is an aware, but gambly player. He's there to be social and have fun with some friends of his also at the table, but it's pretty clear that he knows what's going on. He's made some decent pick offs of the best player at the table barreling turn/river cards that most people would have folded and made a pretty easy laydown with a boat in a spot where a really fishy or super gambly guy would have called. He perceives me as tight and uncreative (both mostly true). He has $1100ish and I cover.

Turn ($120): 7h to put a heart draw on board.

My play OOP here?

 

[mipevi]

Bet $80, call if raised.

 

[Ben]

I bet $60, 3-bet if raised. Odds he has J8 = pretty low. Odds he'll think he can make a move on you = pretty high. Any way you slice it, we have the lion's share of the equity against his range right now, so checking would be a disaster.

 

[DrStrange]

Is Hero expecting two pair to be best by the river? What is villain's range for the flop call? I worry about a wrap, but villain would share the same worries about Hero's hand. Not much on that flop except a wrap, sets and two pair.

I am torn between check/call or bet/call. I am not sure about Hero's river line if he gets there unimproved.

I choose check/call.

DrStrange

 

[guinness]

I bet $60, 3-bet if raised. Odds he has J8 = pretty low. Odds he'll think he can make a move on you = pretty high. Any way you slice it, we have the lion's share of the equity against his range right now, so checking would be a disaster.

You're going to bet light, then 3-bet if potted to $300? Fish.

I'd pot here, fold on re-pot.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I check call here, villain could have easily had a wrap, and hit the straight. If so you have plenty of re-draw outs.

 

[Ben]

I'd pot here, fold on re-pot.

With 14.5 outs even against the nuts? I call BS on that.

This isn't the kiddie table where a raise always means the nutter-butters - what can this guy have? Exactly QJ8x, or the balls to make a move on a player he sees as "tight and uncreative" with a high wrap (KQJx) and/or random float that picked up better draws on the turn. I want to induce that.

 

[bergs]

Check call.

 

[onerand]

Bet or check call is ok. If stacks were shallower I would check raise all in.

 

[guinness]

With 14.5 outs even against the nuts? I call BS on that. [emoji14]

This isn't the kiddie table where a raise always means the nutter-butters - what can this guy have? Exactly QJ8x, or the balls to make a move on a player he sees as "tight and uncreative" with a high wrap (KQJx) and/or random float that picked up better draws on the turn. I want to induce that.

Im not merging yet until pot bet, and I disagree those are strictly his holdings. I think there are many J8xx this crafty social player can have in this hand. The problem now is we need to know his holdings before we get caught in a tricky river spot.

I think betting pot vs lower gives us more value.

Bet 120, pot is 240.
He pots, pot is now 480. I'm not calling 360 on 15 outs. You leak all day on that.

Fold, order those curly fries, refill your cranberry ginger ale and talk about who would you rather, classic Pinky Tuscadero or classic Joan Jett.

 

[moojersey]

I like a check call on this street. We can fold River if he bets big and hearts don't come in.

 

[Jimulacrum]

You're going to bet light, then 3-bet if potted to $300? Fish.

I'd pot here, fold on re-pot.

Im not merging yet until pot bet, and I disagree those are strictly his holdings. I think there are many J8xx this crafty social player can have in this hand. The problem now is we need to know his holdings before we get caught in a tricky river spot.

I think betting pot vs lower gives us more value.

Bet 120, pot is 240.
He pots, pot is now 480. I'm not calling 360 on 15 outs. You leak all day on that.

Fold, order those curly fries, refill your cranberry ginger ale and talk about who would you rather, classic Pinky Tuscadero or classic Joan Jett.

This sounds about right to me.

We have to bet here, but if we get re-potted, shoving is out of the question and we're not getting pot odds for our draw. Unless this guy is a total fish, he's probably not paying us if we call and make our hand on the river, so implied odds are meh.

We only have 13 nut or semi-nut outs (assuming the other heart is the 2) out of 44 cards, so we're about a 3:38:1 dog if we're behind to any J8. We're only getting 2:1 for calling a PSR, plus a sliver of extra equity the times he hits a second-nut flush or smaller boat with us and pays off. Nowhere near enough to bring us up to 3:38:1. Our split outs—if they even exist, since V may well have redraws—are again a sliver of equity that still doesn't tilt the scales.

Bet and hope to take the pot down to spare us a difficult river decision.

 

[bergs]

What's the argument against check calling here?

 

[Chicken Rob]

What's the argument against check calling here?

Still not getting the right price to check call a pot sized bet. Especially since we believe there is no extra value coming in if we hit.

 

[Jimulacrum]

What's the argument against check calling here?

When we are ahead, it basically turns our hand into a bare draw that's not getting implied odds to call a PSB. It's not like we'd check-call the turn with the intention of check-calling unimproved on the river unless we're big on flushing our bankroll.

Hands like JQ or JQK with no 8 would be getting a free ride, and we won't get the same quality of information that we would get by betting and getting called or raised.

We may also even get a set to fold by betting, which obviously will never happen if we check.

 

[jbutler]

Not sure why I never finished this thread earlier, but I definitely remember exactly how this hand played out, so no worries.

The turn discussion is the one I had hoped to have by starting this thread. I ended up betting, but I'm not sure if that was correct or if my amount ($75) was suboptimal and if so how much and why.

My train of thought at the time was that I should be betting because this guy, having me pegged as the kind of player he had me pegged as, is fairly unlikely to raise without the nut hand here since a tight, straightforward player in my spot is unlikely to lead out on this turn after being called on the flop without, at minimum, a set, and typically will have the nuts.

But if that's my thinking, why shouldn't I be betting pot, right? By betting less it's not as if I'm making my response to a raise any different. If he pots after my bet, I have to fold. As Chicken said, I'm unlikely to get paid if I make my hand on the river and if I make a straight it will still be second best with some frequency.

Anyway, still like to hear thoughts on turn play, but...

I bet $75 and he thought for maybe ten seconds and called.

River ($270): (Th 9x 2y) (7h) Kh

He has $950ish and I cover. My bet size?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

$200

 

[Jimulacrum]

Full pot bet.

We can figure he'll pay off with a smaller flush since we backdoored ours and showed aggression the whole way like we had a set or J8. He may even pay off with a king-high straight for the same reason. A smaller bet may not make a huge difference in his calling frequency, since he'd be calling on the premise that we're unlikely to have the flush. That's all we can really count on, and a PSB leverages that by making it look like we don't especially want a call.

If we'd hit a different heart, I might be inclined to make a weak-looking bet and hope that he thinks he can make a move. But between the 7, the K, and the heart, he's unlikely to have any kind of busted hand that would warrant a bluff.

 

[mipevi]

I would only fold to a pot-sized bet on the turn if you feel outclassed by the other player. An aware, gambly player with stacks that deep IP should have a bit more than the nuts + redraw in his range here, like KQJx hh is worth a semi-bluff raise. Yes the river spot will be difficult when we don't improve, but I do expect some value when we make the backdoor flush, and we can bluff cards like 7 and 2. I would not rep a nut straight on a rivered K/Q/J as those hit villain's range.

As played, on the river Kh is not a great value card, but we might get villain to bluff-raise some of the time and certainly get calls from QJxx if we don't appear too strong, I'm betting $180.

 

[onerand]

Were you betting the river unimproved? Lead river, he may have worse hearts or make a move. I dont fold turn if raised because we are deep and our flush is backdoor.

 

[guinness]

What's the argument against check calling here?

You're tabling your hand if you systematically check these spots. The good players will pick up on this and pot your ass all day in retaliation. Safe checks are so more obvious in PLO vs NLHE that they are often the best potting opportunities for a steal.

 

[guinness]

River ($270): (Th 9x 2y) (7h) Kh
He has $950ish and I cover. My bet size?

I'm potting. Anything less will be perceived as calculated-mega-value-town'ing ( © - Trademarked) and may give the enemy more reason to fold.

 

[jbutler]

I don't think river decision is that interesting, so results:

I potted and he snap tables his hand - J843 with the 4h3h. He starts saying that he almost shoved the turn because he knows I have J8 also and thought he was freerolling, but now he thinks I actually backed into a big hand because there's no way I would bet that card without a huge hand. He runs on about this for maybe a minute or 90 seconds and eventually mucks.

Still think potting river was right, but as I said, still not completely sure about the turn decision.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I potted and he snap tables his hand

This smells a little like an angle attempt to me, but of course you were there and would have a better sense of it.

 

[jbutler]

This smells a little like an angle attempt to me, but of course you were there and would have a better sense of it.

1000% not an angle. This guy was there to fuck around and have fun and this was totally in keeping with his demeanor all night.

 

[mipevi]

Still think potting river was right

Curious, what is your potting range on the river? Do you bet less with anything, or always either pot or check? Maybe it's a live US thing, and people just go bananas when facing pot-sized river bets, as this isn't the first hand I've seen posted where this kind of progression (1/2-3/4 pot bets flop and turn, pot bet river) happened. To me potting there looks polarized, and your bluff-range seems pretty non-existent, so other than a high flush, what will you get calls from..?

 

[jbutler]

Curious, what is your potting range on the river? Do you bet less with anything, or always either pot or check? Maybe it's a live US thing, and people just go bananas when facing pot-sized river bets, as this isn't the first hand I've seen posted where this kind of progression (1/2-3/4 pot bets flop and turn, pot bet river) happened. To me potting there looks polarized, and your bluff-range seems pretty non-existent, so other than a high flush, what will you get calls from..?

Many in this game will call down with any flush and there are a number of players who will call with QJ. This guy in particular, I don't know as he was in from out of town and I had all of 2 hours playing time with him.

With a player like that - new to the game and only a couple hours experience with the table - I have zero concern for balancing my range. I think players in his position more often view the table as a whole, trying to look at what they've seen from other hands that have played out and so, if they're thinking about range subconsciously, they're ranging the entire table rather than a single player. In this guy's case, he's called down PSBs on rivers that looked like trouble cards and was right a few times with fairly thin holdings (aces up on one and a straight on a flush/pair river on another than I can remember).