grebe
Full House
You have made your stack size awkward by your small bets.
BET BET BET: I like something chunky here to give him poor odds with that Ad....but also make him feel pot committed. (I WANT a call here)....
Bet 1800
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2nd Hand of Tournament (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter rjbf65
- Start date
BET BET BET: I like something chunky here to give him poor odds with that Ad....but also make him feel pot committed. (I WANT a call here)....
Bet 1800
grebe
Full House
We have such a monster, I don't think it's as important to know V's range here. The important thing is that he has a bunch of AdXx in it and we can just target that hand specifically. Everything else is going to do what they do. If he has an overpair or better here, he continues, if he has something weaker, he folds without a diamond. Ad almost always continues.
If a diamond falls on the river, it is what it is....nothing you can do with that. The one thing we have control of is how we let V get there. If he flopped it, se la vie. It was our time to die. (on the flop, we are not THAT bad against a flopped flush, by the way. We would have like 35% equity)
Hero bets $1,000.
Villain Calls.
There is now $4675 in the middle.
River is a Qs.
So the board is Td 8d 4d 2c Qs
Villain checks again.
What now?
grebe
Full House
shove.
grebe
Full House
ugh. so. much. value. lost.
ekricket
Royal Flush
I think he was up against pocket Q here. The overpair sticking around to a not so scary runout seems reasonable given the betting action.
Mandos
3 of a Kind
Given the way this hand has played out, my guess is that Hero checks the river.
I think I'm getting it all in here no matter what. The Q on the river really only helps 1 specific hand: QQ (unless we think V got here with some sort of J9 with a diamond). Anything else that he has, especially all his AdXx holdings, we crush. I think he could still have lower sets as well for instance. A shove here also makes QQ have to question whether their set is good if we flopped the flush, though we'll almost surely get a call from QQ anyway.
The only reason I see not to shove here is not wanting to get eliminated on the second hand of the tournament, and that's a terrible reason not to (and in retrospect seems to have possibly contributed to too small of sizing throughout the hand? Just speculating of course).
I think I'm getting it all in here no matter what. The Q on the river really only helps 1 specific hand: QQ (unless we think V got here with some sort of J9 with a diamond). Anything else that he has, especially all his AdXx holdings, we crush. I think he could still have lower sets as well for instance. A shove here also makes QQ have to question whether their set is good if we flopped the flush, though we'll almost surely get a call from QQ anyway.
The only reason I see not to shove here is not wanting to get eliminated on the second hand of the tournament, and that's a terrible reason not to (and in retrospect seems to have possibly contributed to too small of sizing throughout the hand? Just speculating of course).
grebe
Full House
so you are willing to give up on the hand because you put him on one specific hand? What about AQ with a diamond? What about QT? What about AT-JT? what about 88? What about AA/KK that decided to play tricky? I think we get a call out of JJ here as well.
My bet is that hands that beat us.....like a flopped flush or QQ that binked the river would shove into us afraid we would check back.
how often do you think we are getting a call from hands we beat?
or are we betting for folds from hands we don't beat?
grebe
Full House
There are more hands we beat that call us....see above post than hands that will check/call us that beat us. Our hand against their calling range is good.
Mandos
3 of a Kind
I really like this point, and it should be a big factor in our decision here. One of my weaknesses is I often forget to play the hand out fully from the perspective of my opponent trying to get full value himself and thus sometimes give him too much credit for hands that should have been more aggressive themselves (assuming some level of competence from the opponent).
Hero bets $1500
Villain goes all in.
Hero has just $2400 in his stack left. Pot is over $10K.
Do we make a sickening fold or a crying call?
ekricket
Royal Flush
I don’t assume this. It’s a home game
grebe
Full House
TT-AA, 88, 44, AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, AQo, ATo, KQo, KTo, QJo
here is a range of all the hands V could have not including the flopped flushes that would call a river shove. Maybe @boltonguy could plug this in to give us an equity calculation.
here is a range of all the hands V could have not including the flopped flushes that would call a river shove. Maybe @boltonguy could plug this in to give us an equity calculation.
grebe
Full House
it's a call all day. You only need to be good like 1 in 5 now due to how whacky this hand played out. You probably lose, but that's ok.
ekricket
Royal Flush
I believe most say “GRAB THAT VALUE”
In their eyes you’ve played this so bad it’s time to redeem yourself. Just make the call, you can congratulate yourself for “getting value” on the way home while the tourneys still running.
grebe
Full House
It's gambling. If you are better at it than other people you will win more than your share. If you suck at it, you can congratulate yourself on your epic laydowns when you blind out 4 spots before the bubble.
Yes, except facing a raise pre, check call, check call, check jam does not end well 1 in 5 times.
grebe
Full House
In my defense, if I played this hand, we would have got it in waaaay before now, or the V would have been wondering if his hand "would have hit"
ekricket
Royal Flush
I’m just guessing but “you hate tournaments” because you go home early most nights. I understand the sentiment from the comments.
grebe
Full House
lol, no I do not....and I do quite well in them. I have made several deep runs in large online tournies....last one was 12th in a 4000+ buyin tournament. People that play like hero and villain above are quite easy to play against. Sometimes, I bust early for sure. My goal is not to see how long I can play.
I'm guessing that V has J9 with one diamond, and you let him hang around. Or he's a knucklehead who wouldn't have folded for any amount.
I think you have to call. But I think you are beat.
I think you have to call. But I think you are beat.
I don’t know who’s making such a big raise pre, from middle position, with J9 off. I think it’s more likely that he flopped the flush, with QQ being a dark horse as well.
Regardless, unless you know this guy is capable of hanging around like that, only to try to steal such a huge pot on the River (and this villain would have to know that hero is capable of making that fold) I agree that hero is beat, one way or the other.
ekricket
Royal Flush
Pocket queens - here’s the villains perspective
Raise preflop - QQ
Flop has three diamonds, let’s see what other guy has - still QQ, but one is red
Turn - Other guy seems to be betting this ok, hope I hit the flush, I’ll let him lead- still QxQd
River - dang no diamond but hit a set! Other guy has been betting, I’ll let him bet again then pop it because now he is committed.
Some variant of this. The preflop raise is what I’m watching- QQ or AK(Q) of diamonds.
grebe
Full House
While you and I disagree on how to play tourneys in general, I do definitely think QQ is solidly in V's range. Where our tree forks is that I see other hands besides the one very likely hand that we do beat.
I honestly would not be surprised to hear that V has AA and tried to play tricky, or he had AQ (with either a diamond) and thinks he got there. I am not trying to figure out my opponents EXACT hand, that's too damn hard. I am trying to figure out of all the likely hands my opponents have, am I usually ahead? And then, of those hands, which ones can I get value from? If I have a pretty good batch of hands I beat that will call me, for sure I am betting. This hand is very much so in that bucket.
Also of note: almost always these posted hands are ones that the HERO loses. I don't let that cloud my judgement and say....awww, you KNOW Villain flopped it! check it down! I do my best to think of all situations in which I find myself having to make these decisions....not just the one that went poorly.
TBH, if I checked here and Villain showed me 88, I would be DISGUSTED with myself knowing I should have 12K+ in chips. I have zero problems going home early if I lost trying to get value from my monster hand. That is something to think about next time you find yourself 3 from the bubble and wishing you had more than 10 BB's with a guy sitting to your left playing every other hand and you can't do shit about it. You are praying for that hand, when in actuality you probably already had it but didnt get value from it.
Mandos
3 of a Kind
This is the difficulty here. I'm pretty sure we're beat because it's a hand breakdown, but if it weren't i could see him showing up with AdQx etc as grebe mentioned.
The thing I'm struggling with here is which of the hands that we beat check-raise the river, which is the part I'm still not sure about.
I'm not nearly good enough to fold so I make the crying call.
Opponent flips over AdKd. Flopped nut flush. My night of poker is over. Would have way too long to wait for a cash game to materialize. I go put the donkey hat on and they take my picture (tradition at this game) and head back home.
Luckily a buddy of mine texted me on my drive back to let me know he was setting up his golf simulator that night. So the night was not a total bust as I got in 27 holes of golf.
I'm normally on the nitty side and I feel I don't get nearly enough value on hands in a lot of cases. I told myself before the tourney I will be a little more aggressive in trying to get value from hands. It didn't work out this time.
I feel my biggest mistake was the small re-raise preflop and inflating the pot on a hand that was likely going to have an awkward flop to deal with. No opponent was folding for $400 more at that time. I did want to make sure it was isolated between me and the villain. The worst possible flop hit and I lost the maximum.
Anyways, I appreciate all the comments.
ekricket
Royal Flush
But you flopped TOP SET!!!!!!!!! That has to have value!!!!!
It sure did for the Villain.
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