Legend5555
Full House
Talking a good poker game and playing a good poker game are two VERY different things!
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66 heads up, home tournament (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter JustinInMN
- Start date
OP
OP
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
No kidding, we're all geniuses here, it's different in the moment when you have to make a decision without two days of analysis.Talking a good poker game and playing a good poker game are two VERY different things!
But good players look at strategy threads as prep work for next time.
I am firmly in the shove flop camp as well. When it's heads up and I get a gift hand like this, it's time to try to bury the dagger. Pray he's betting strong and you can cripple him, or take the easy money and the all-important chip lead, and set the table for the next time you can shove strong. Heads up at the end of a tournament is a completely different game.
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grebe
Full House
Flop (160k in pot):
IF you voted to shove flop, please answer this question: What is your shove range here? Any pair? Would you shove 55 or 88? Think about the action, then think about what you do when he bets in to you on this board. What other hands besides sets do you shove over top of his bet?
Legend5555
Full House
Is like to know the rationale too.
I'm not trying to berate anyone that wants to shove here. But this is how we learn.
Does shoving get called by a worse hand often enough to off set the value you miss out on from all the worse hands that you can get more value from by calling or even raising small? Shoving/raising because you don't want to get outdrawn is not the way to make the most money (or chips in a tourney).
Any time you make a play, you need to ask yourself: "what am I trying to accomplish?" And there are really only 2 answers: to get called by worse (value), to get better to fold (bluff). There are occasionally spots where you bet for value/protection, but it's not in spots where you have REALLY strong hands. It's in spots like 77 on J56 when checked to. You want to get value with the likely best hand and want to protect the equity you do have against hands like T9, 89, AQ, KT etc because there are a lot of run outs you won't be able to bet, and you can easily lose in a check down to someone that hits a better pair. You don't really know what turns and rivers are bad. When you are flop a set, most run outs aren't hard to play, and over cards coming aren't an issue. This is even more true when short stacked as you just don't have much room to maneuver.
Sets don't need much protection even on "scary" boards because you can still make a full house. So your primary goal should be to get the most value from all your opponents worse hands. And making them fold pairs and draws is not helping you win more chips.
There are always exceptions, and if you have a read that your opponent is never going to fold any pair or draw, then fine. Shove. But that isn't the norm.
Poker Zombie
Royal Flush
Flopping a set or better on a trashy rainbow board is my shove range. Any pair could be beat.
basically this. also any 2 pair and 1010+ (i often skip the re-raise with large pairs heads up in a tournament, but thats another discussion) and probably any decent 9 based on OP's description of villian. no, im probably not shoving 55 or 88, because then youre almost certainly only getting called by better hands.
maybe i just play the ends of tournaments different than most. but i think i do fine for myself. i am also simply not afraid of finishing second, so i prefer to go for the big kill when possible. and if it gets laid down, ive got the upper hand back on the chip lead tug of war, and they now know im not afraid to shove.
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OP
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JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
OP
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JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
This seems like a sizing tell to me.
Shoving TT+ seems like a game theory disaster to me. Almost sure to fold out anything worse, including a hunk of inferior hands that could call a half-pot to full-pot bet. But sure to get called by 2-pair-plus.
This is the squishy third answer as to why to bet. And "protection" seems to be the only support the flop-shovers are offering. (And a degree of self-protection I suppose that you won't fold the best hand
).But protection isn't a concern unless a pot gets larger than a common size. An 8BB pot with still 60BB in play is going to be pretty common at this level.
to be clear, i am only talking about this hand and this villian based on your description. if i think i can get him to commit his chips behind, thats a situation i want to be in.
OP
OP
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
I see what you are saying, and maybe I am taking the wrong approach in focusing on overlooking this hand. However, I do disagree it does have to be somewhat about the hand reading and ranging the opponent. If I am right that villain couldn't move in on the river without a straight, my call is a guaranteed loser and I am obviously better off trying to comeback from 12BB. I think the lesson here is I shouldn't have been so certain about that and asked myself one more question, is there a 20% chance I am wrong about this being a straight-only move? Or as I think you are putting it, the mere circumstances of the tournament demand a higher level of certainty that this is a straight-only move on villain's part before trying to find a laydown. I think you are saying villain's risky demonstrations in other pots should have put that level of doubt in my head.
grebe
Full House
Funny that you say you are not afraid to finish 2nd...because if I knew my opponent would only shove a monster here, I would bet them relentlessly....over folding to any playback. My read on those that would only shove TT+ here is that they are playing scared. My read might not be accurate, but that would be my personal read...and I would adjust accordingly.
OP
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JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Fair enough, but I am still concerned even this villain can make a considered laydown facing a 3x pot shove. Especially given I think his ceiling for value is 9x.
These guys are 30 big blinds deep. “Shove everything” is kind of a knucklehead move. I mean, if you have good reason to believe your villain will call your set shove, by all means, go ahead. But don’t forget you’re still playing poker, just because you’re close to the end.
again, i am only talking about this one hand based on the information provided. i feel like everyone is forgetting the OP:
every heads up match is a different tug of war, and of course adjustment is necessary. not being afraid to finish second means i am probably willing to shove a wide range heads up, not a narrow one. i gave my shove range only for this hand as it was played up until my turn on the flop.
i am not saying i am "right" because there are many right ways to play. i really enjoy heads up play at the end of a tournament, its a game within a game and i love the mental aspect. i used to play a ton of heads up tourneys online for practice, but those are not perfectly analagous because there is no 2nd place money that you are already sitting on.
Legend5555
Full House
I would have been pushing my chips towards my opponent as I called though. Then have to take them back as everyone shouts "you thought you were beat with a set?!?"I think @Legend5555 is my spirit animal. Except he would have found the call on the river
Poker Zombie
Royal Flush
I have made a similar statement a couple of times... If poker was played just one way, it would be tic-tac-toe.
A few of us would have jammed the flop. A few more would have played it like the hero. No matter which way you played, if you felted Phil Helmuth he would tell you it was wrong.
It is.
But there are three times I will jam all-in.
- I don't have enough chips to "play" - which is not the case here.
- I just nailed the flop. "Getting it in good" or with a "cooler", are respectable ways to lose.
- I completely whiffed the flop, but can take 20% of your stack with any two cards.
OP
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JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Well if you are capable of #3, obviously not a sizing tell then.Good luck figuring out if my "sizing tell" is #2 or #3 when it's on you to call.
- I just nailed the flop. "Getting it in good" or with a "cooler", are respectable ways to lose.
- I completely whiffed the flop, but can take 20% of your stack with any two cards.
Poker Zombie
Royal Flush
Option #4: Missing the flop, but thinking you nailed the flop because on the previous hand I had sixes.
That play happens a little too often for my liking.
That play happens a little too often for my liking.
Interesting discussion. Can't argue with how it was played, although there are merits to other lines. As played, I probably bet smaller on the turn, and make a crying call on the river (I don't think a straight moves all-in there).
But I think the jam-v-call flop camps are both missing something. Both are concerned with missing value (a legitimate concern imo), but I think a reasonable way to get all the chips in the middle after flopping a set (certainly the goal) is to raise the villains flop bet, prolly 2x his bet.
He can either fold (possible, but not likely given the sticky/loose description), call the raise (yea, more of his chips in the pot), or shove over the top (bingo!). I like this line better than either jamming or just calling.
But I think the jam-v-call flop camps are both missing something. Both are concerned with missing value (a legitimate concern imo), but I think a reasonable way to get all the chips in the middle after flopping a set (certainly the goal) is to raise the villains flop bet, prolly 2x his bet.
He can either fold (possible, but not likely given the sticky/loose description), call the raise (yea, more of his chips in the pot), or shove over the top (bingo!). I like this line better than either jamming or just calling.
Moxie Mike
Full House
Consider the dynamics of the decision-making process of anytime you're facing a bet from an opponent and folding is a viable option.
In a sense, all calls made while holding less than the stone cold nuts are 'hero calls' to some degree. So what it comes down to is how much credit do you give your opponent?
To put it another way, the stronger your hand, the more certain you need to be that you're beat.
Let me ask you this: If the river had been a 7 or 2 and your opponent shoved, would you have called? Most certainly yes right? What does that tell you?
This obviously comes down to your experience playing against your opponents. The more loose and wild they've shown themselves to be, the less credit you give their bets and open up your calling range proportionately. This thread I posted recently is a good illustration of that.
This was your first time playing against this particular opponent, so it's understandable that you weren't fully aware of what he's capable of. But from your OP the signs were there, so hopefully you'll be able to classify a new player more efficiently and make better decisions in real time.
TBH, I would view the new guy winning the first time he showed up as a very good thing. He'll definitely be back. Observe his results over the next several tournaments and see how he does. I suspect he'll be one of the first to the rail most nights.
Moxie Mike
Full House
As I've thought about this some more I think I agree given the opponent. I don't think this opponent is looking at the flop and saying to himself 'that flop probably didn't hit HERO's range so let's apply some pressure'. I'm still hung up on the fact that if he folds to a flop raise (unlikely after further analysis) it's a devastating loss EV-wise. HERO has a stranglehold on this hand after the flop - letting a fish off the line would be heartbreaking.
OP
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JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
I do think there may have been some merit to sizing down on the turn to closer to 1/2 pot rather than 3/4 pot. My mission is to do my best to keep 9x in, or even better, make a size that induces the check-raise-all-in. But I do disagree, as shallow as we are at this point, if villain has a straight, shoving is pretty much his only move. The question for me has been, how do I spot the "what else" he can have in his range that points me to a call.
In a normal circumstance, I think raising the flop to something like 350K would be my approach. I ruled that out in this hand because I thought villain was way more biased toward air than value and that his value was really capped at 9-x (mayyyyyybe 33 if I am super lucky) and I block all but one 6. So I decided to favor the flat, figuring he would continue on most turns and that would have been a better size to make a shove. Even if he can't pay off the shove, I figured I get more chips that way. His checking the turn pretty much forced me to bet something, otherwise there was no hope of going for stacks on the river.
OP
OP
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
I certainly think given what we know villain to be holding I don't think he will fold to a normal size raise. That's my hangup about going for the shove here, it's the one sizing where he might think about it. To shove will be to have made the move that may let him make the right decision despite his image. (Kinda like how my river fold makes his river shove correct, even if villain doesn't know the reason
.)But being results oriented knowing the holdings, I think a normal raise on the flop leads to all the chips getting in on the flop or turn and I can't get bluffed on the river. That's clearly the upside that I pass on by just flatting the flop. Though as I said several times, the reason I passed on that is that I figure villain to have way more air than value, and the value seems capped at 9x. I can't put him on any monsters except the rare 33. (And who's to say he isn't 3-betting that pre?)
Moxie Mike
Full House
It's always challenging when your opponents aren't playing the same game as you are. You're sitting there thinking about ranges and EV and ITM and all those aspects of the game that give you an edge while he's making moves that could be interpreted as signs of a closed head injury. Figuring out those types of players usually doesn't take very long, but it can be frustrating when they put you to the test because you don't know how advanced their thinking is.
A little tip I've sort of learned when playing against the same players all the time, see if you can talk strategy with them... you'll get insights to the depths of their analysis. I've also helped out some of the weaker players when they ask because it makes them more predictable if they apply what I try to teach them. It's all metagame.
If you want to talk about a flop jam... EV wise I think it just induces too many folds. You're correct to assume he likely doesn't have anything on this flop... and you've got the effective nuts. Since his range contains pretty much the entire deck, a jam folds out most of it. He'll call with overpairs and probably all the top pair hands and maybe the occasional OESD, but what else? Is he bad enough to call his entire stack off with pocket 8s? What about bottom pair?
Obviously we don't know the answer to that but we need to assume the answer is no. I mean, he's not that bad, is he?
So all in all, I think you played it fine until the river. There were other options on the flop and turn but EV-wise I think the difference is negligible.
Poker Zombie
Royal Flush
^ True story. I have the Zombie bullet bounty to prove it.It's funny that @BGinGA should chime in. At S@P 1, I did exactly what I said I would do, I jammed the flop with middle set. Dave called. My plan worked perfectly against (what I believe to be) a very good player.
...all except for the part where he hit one of his 6 outs.
OP
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JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
It's funny that @BGinGA should chime in. At S@P 1, I did exactly what I said I would do, I jammed the flop with middle set. Dave called. My plan worked perfectly against (what I believe to be) a very good player.
...all except for the part where he hit one of his 6 outs.
I would assume @BGinGA most likely would be more balanced toward value than the villain in my story. Which makes raising flop a better play. And against a less aggressive opponent than the villain in this story, raising flop would probably be my usual action.
Steve Birrer
Two Pair
Very interesting and educational thread. So to the OP thanks for posting and for all the participants thanks for chiming in. After much thought and reading all the various viewpoints I have narrowed this down to my bottom line.
I don't want to keep playing a hand when there are just lots of cards that can put me into a difficult decision spot. In this case I fully get not shoving post flop. But after that turn I just have to shove because too many cards can come that put me in a hard spot. So I am getting my chips in the middle.
I don't want to keep playing a hand when there are just lots of cards that can put me into a difficult decision spot. In this case I fully get not shoving post flop. But after that turn I just have to shove because too many cards can come that put me in a hard spot. So I am getting my chips in the middle.
OP
OP
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
Thanks Steve,
I do agree getting in on the turn makes more sense than flop at least. But on the whole, I am settled that I think I took a pretty good line the whole way except for a bad river decision, but live and go forward.
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