Another 2/2 PLO hand (top set) that I probably misplayed (1 Viewer)

[bentax1978]

This hand is from the same session as the previous one I posted. It occurred one orbit later when Hero had the button again.

2/2 PLO, 8 handed.

Approximate stacks sizes to start hand:

SB $250
BB $500
UTG $900
MP1 $600
MP2 $300
Hero (button) $1200

Straddle is on ($5), two MP callers, action is on Hero on the button.

Hero looks down at and calls for $5

SB calls, BB calls, UTG/straddle checks his option.

6 players, $30 in pot

Flop is

SB checks, BB checks, UTG/straddle checks, MP1 bets $30, MP2 calls $30, action is on Hero.

What should Hero do?

 

[gopherblue]

Order a crown and coke. Dangerous draws and possible made hand out there, but what the hell...you're up, you're on the button and you're on vacation...pot.




But really, just call.

 

[eXtremum]

With straights and flush draws on the table, your flopped set doesn't look good. Unless, you're feeling lucky enough for a paired board, or one-outer for quads. Hero has the stack to at least see the turn. I say CALL.

 

[bentax1978]

Order a crown and coke.

I'm starting to see a pattern in how you play difficult flops in PLO.

 

[Forty4]

Gee this looks like that hand I basically busted out on last night in P*. Using that as my template I call the $30, try to get away from this had without losing 97% of your chips.

 

[gopherblue]

I'm starting to see a pattern in how you play difficult flops in PLO.

Did I misplay it the same way you did?

 

[bentax1978]

Did I misplay it the same way you did?

I was referring to the ordering a Crown and Coke as a solution to a tough spot. So in that respect, we did not play it the same way.

I'll get to my poker action in a few.

 

[jbutler]

Pretty clear call imo.

 

[bentax1978]

But really, just call.

Using that as my template I call the $30, try to get away from this had without losing 97% of your chips.

Pretty clear call imo.

Hero is on board with you guys and calls the $30.

SB fold, BB pots it to $180 total, UTG calls $180, MP1 goes all-in for $600, MP2 calls all-in for less (about $300), action is on Hero. Still to act is BB (who was the original raiser to $180 and has about $300 more behind) and UTG (who called the $180 and has about $700 behind).

Action is Hero, who could really use a Crown and Coke now, or at the very least a sweet tea.

 

[eXtremum]

Sorry, but Hero folds this one. If you folded the boat or quads down the last two streets, you have my sincere condolences.

 

[BGinGA]

Fold and be hsppy you got out cheap. Use your saved monies to order a Crown and Tea, sweet optional.

 

[Chicken Rob]

Fold from me. You're up against 78 and nut heart draw. You need to pair the board to get there, and you're not getting the right price.

 

[jbutler]

So if I'm reading it right, the pot is approximately $1100-1150 and it's $570 to you. Is that right?

 

[Forty4]

Wish I could have found the fold button last night but I've learned from my mistakes and can correct it here for $0.

 

[eXtremum]

Lot of action already, for a 2/2 post-flop.

 

[bentax1978]

So if I'm reading it right, the pot is approximately $1100-1150 and it's $570 to you. Is that right?

Ignoring the $5 preflop action, here's what people have committed in the pot and what they have left in their stack.

SB $250 folded on the flop
BB $500 - 180 (320)
UTG $900 - 180 (720)
MP1 $600 - 600
MP2 $300 - 300
Hero $1200 - 30 (1170)

So at this point there's a little over $1300 in the pot with the preflop money, and it's $570 to Hero. After Hero calls, BB and UTG still have to act. There's another $1040 that might go in the pot, which would require Hero to call an additional 300 in addition to the 570. Follow all that?

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Probably a fold. The nut heart draw is irrelevant, you need the board to pair regardless. If everyone called and everyone had 78 with no pairs you would be in good shape, but the problem is one or two of these jokers may have flopped smaller sets or two pair, killing some (or most) of your outs.

 

[eXtremum]

Probably a fold. The nut heart draw is irrelevant, you need the board to pair regardless. If everyone called and everyone had 78 with no pairs you would be in good shape, but the problem is one or two of these jokers may have flopped smaller sets or two pair, killing some (or most) of your outs.

Yes. After all players coming in off the straddle in PLO, I wouldn't be surprised, if there's someone with 55xx or 66xx, in play. There's only seven outs to call, minus some likely blockers in play. This is PLO, so six of them would potentially wreck his hand (5's and 6's), if someone already flopped a smaller set. And, the price isn't right, unless you're bankrolled to rebuy for these situations.

 

[jbutler]

Probably a fold. The nut heart draw is irrelevant, you need the board to pair regardless. If everyone called and everyone had 78 with no pairs you would be in good shape, but the problem is one or two of these jokers may have flopped smaller sets or two pair, killing some (or most) of your outs.

Agreed. Most likely these guys all in there with 87xx were playing rundowns that include your boat outs.

It doesn't change that it's a fold, but consider that you're something like 28% to win the hand even if you only have 3 current boat outs. You're still not getting the right price, but I was surprised to run the numbers and see that even with 3 current outs you have 28% equity in the pot.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Agreed. Most likely these guys all in there with 87xx were playing rundowns that include your boat outs.

It doesn't change that it's a fold, but consider that you're something like 28% to win the hand even if you only have 3 current boat outs. You're still not getting the right price, but I was surprised to run the numbers and see that even with 3 current outs you have 28% equity in the pot.

Don't forget running deuces.

 

[bentax1978]

Agreed. Most likely these guys all in there with 87xx were playing rundowns that include your boat outs.

It doesn't change that it's a fold, but consider that you're something like 28% to win the hand even if you only have 3 current boat outs. You're still not getting the right price, but I was surprised to run the numbers and see that even with 3 current outs you have 28% equity in the pot.

That's the $64000 question, or in this case the $2400 question, how many outs do I really have?

I could have over 60% equity if all my outs are live, plus running cards as @Chippy McChiperson points out above. Or it could be a lot worse.

 

[jbutler]

Don't forget running deuces.

Yeah that's why I said current outs. Lots of good turns (i.e., turns that are not part of likely rundown hands).

That's the $64000 question, or in this case the $2400 question, how many outs do I really have?

I could have over 60% equity if all my outs are live, plus running cards as @Chippy McChiperson points out above. Or it could be a lot worse.

Yeah you're much more likely to have a lot of your outs killed here imo. It's one of those scenarios where you really wish you had less money because this is a fucking great spot to get a $300 stack in.

 

[Jimulacrum]

The possibility of a lot of favorable cards being out versus unfavorable cards is hard to quantify in a spot like this. The only thing we can be reasonably certain of is that at least one 7 and at least one 8 are out, which doesn't buy us a ton of equity on its own. As mentioned above, if there's another set out, which is quite possible, that shits on this hand significantly.

Fold, be glad it only cost $30 (and nothing wrong with that original call, BTW, totally standard to draw there).

Alternatively, perform some kind of subterfuge and go south for like $950 before shoving in the remaining $220.

 

[Forty4]

I just want to say how much I enjoy reading posts like these. Many of you are much better players than I but through these discussions I feel I'm getting a great education, especially on the games that I haven't played much if at all.

 

[bentax1978]

RESULTS

So I end up folding, though I felt (at the time) like I folded for the wrong reason. I thought I was getting the right odds to call, even assuming one of the player might have a set, but the truth is I just didn't want to put almost my entire stack at risk that I spend 4 hours building up. I was almost done for the night, and walking away almost $1000 up for the night was very appealing and ultimately tipped my decision to fold. Thinking about it after, I was concerned that folding to protect my stack was a bad poker move and that if I was getting good odds to call, I made a mistake folding. However, as you guys have pointed out, the "good odds" to call depends on how many of my outs are gone. If I really had 7 turn and 10 river outs, it would have been a clear call. However, if I only had 3/6 outs, it's a lot less appealing.

The actual results of the hand aren't really relevant to whether my fold was a good decision or not, but here they are anyway (and FWIW, I would have ended up with the 5th best hand).

So I fold on the button, BB and UTG push their stacks. 4-way all-in, with a main pot and lots of side pots.

MP1 had the made straight with 87, with a backdoor redraw to a higher straight (QJ87, no hearts)
MP2 had and ace high flush draw, nothing else that I noticed (Axxx, two hearts)
BB has a queen high flush draw and a crappy gut shot 67, taking away one of my outs. (Q764, two hearts)
UTG had a king high flush draw and an over-pair to the board (KKxx, two hearts)

Turns comes a 4h, river is a Js

So MP2 wins the main pot ($1260) with the nut flush and get a nice quadruple up. UTG win the rest of the side pots with K high flush. (around $800 I think), which put him a couple hundred up for the hand when all was said and done. BB and MP1 get stacked.

 

[eXtremum]

Good fold, as MP2 was in a mere impeccable spot for this hand.

 

[jbutler]

MP1 had the made straight with 87, with a backdoor redraw to a higher straight (QJ87, no hearts)
MP2 had and ace high flush draw, nothing else that I noticed (Axxx, two hearts)
BB has a queen high flush draw and a crappy gut shot 67, taking away one of my outs. (Q764, two hearts)
UTG had a king high flush draw and an over-pair to the board (KKxx, two hearts)

Anyone worried in the other thread about playing PLO should just look at this garbage and realize that the field ain't that tough.

 

[Rhodeman77]

I really don't like MP1's shove with just a bare straight. He is only invested for $30 with 2 people that have already put in $180 in front of him and more action behind possibly. A straight with no redraws vs several players that sets and flush draws are likely and the strong possibility of drawing to a chop at best make want to fold.

Anyone that has played more than a few hours of PLO knows that flopped straights are the fastest way to lose your stack.

 

[eXtremum]

Anyone that has played more than a few hours of PLO knows that flopped straights are the fastest way to lose your stack.

Unless, it was a rainbow flop, which would've given MP1 gobs more equity on the next two streets. However, you're absolutely correct, with this hand.

 

[BGinGA]

...flopped straights without significant redraws (preferably to the nuts) are the fastest way to lose your stack.

^^ FYP.

And obv, not everybody knows (or cares, in the heat of battle).