Another 2/2 PLO hand (top set) that I probably misplayed (2 Viewers)

[bentax1978]

Anyone worried in the other thread about playing PLO should just look at this garbage and realize that the field ain't that tough.

No, I was pretty surprised by the overall (poor) level of play. I ended up only playing about 15% of my hands, and folding pretty readily unless I had the nuts or really strong draws. So long as you were willing to be patient, getting paid when you hit wasn't a problem with this crowd.

I really don't like MP1's shove with just a bare straight. He is only invested for $30 with 2 people that have already put in $180 in front of him and more action behind possibly. A straight with no redraws vs several players that sets and flush draws are likely and the strong possibility of drawing to a chop at best make want to fold.

Anyone that has played more than a few hours of PLO knows that flopped straights are the fastest way to lose your stack.

I'm guessing his thought process was along the lines of "I've got the best hand right now, I'll make them pay to hit their flushes". And in this case, he actually was in a pretty favorable position up against three identical flush draws who had each others outs (and the only guy who had a FH draw folded). But generally speaking, I wouldn't be inclined to shove for $600 with a straight and no redraws.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Even if you thought you were getting proper odds to draw—and it would be just barely in this case—there's nothing wrong with taking the more conservative route. After all, if you're getting exactly 2:1 as a 2:1 dog, it's only a break-even bet anyway.

Big-bet poker isn't like limit poker, where you often have to fight deperately for every precious scrap of EV. You can't just wait around for cinches either, but that doesn't mean you have to take every slightly EV+ bet that presents itself, especially in a loose game.

 

[bentax1978]

Even if you thought you were getting proper odds to draw—and it would be just barely in this case—there's nothing wrong with taking the more conservative route. After all, if you're getting exactly 2:1 as a 2:1 dog, it's only a break-even bet anyway.

Big-bet poker isn't like limit poker, where you often have to fight deperately for every precious scrap of EV. You can't just wait around for cinches either, but that doesn't mean you have to take every slightly EV+ bet that presents itself, especially in a loose game.

I agree, and this table was certainly loose such that there were plenty of +EV opportunities.

As an aside, it had (briefly) crossed my mind to pot the flop and make it $150 total instead of call the first time around. I can't say for certain how that would have impacted the other players (probably not much as all, everyone seemed anxious to get their money in on that hand). However, if I had, by the time it got back around to me I likely would have been closing the action on a 5-way all-in, with $150 already in the pot. So at that point it would have been $750 into an almost $2500 pot. That might have been tougher to get away from. Moreover, had my raise made UTG fold his K high flush draw (which is possible given that I had him covered), I would have then only had to call $450 into almost a $1600 pot. I doubt I would have folded in that last scenario.

 

[DrStrange]

A couple of additional thoughts. A big part of my thinking is going to focus on UTG because there is potentially going to be a $600 side pot. Hero holds the second nut and UTG's actions so far don't seem all that strong. On a good day, it is UTG with middle or bottom set and Hero is going to be a massive favorite on the side pot. This side pot question greatly influences the main pot decision because Hero seems likely to be getting the better of it for the side pot, offering a subsidy to help with the equity problems in the main pot. One big problem - hero isn't going to get to put UTG all in until after the turn falls and a whole bunch of turn cards are scare cards.

When we are calculating outs, there is an implicit assumption that some of the cards we want are in the other hands. This is literally built into the math. In this hand, Hero has seven cards he wants on the turn. There are four cards in Hero's hand plus three on the board leaving forty five unknown cards in the stub, burn pile, muck and players hands. 15.5% of the cards are good for hero on the turn. sixteen cards are in other player's hands ----> so two or three of the cards hero needs are in the other player's hand just by chance. There might be some reason to think Hero's needed cards are over represented in the hand still in play but off-setting that is there is reason to think the folded hands are holding slightly less than their fair share of hero's desired cards.

We need to be careful about making adjustments to the math. I would have shaved a little off Hero's equity to account for the risk of Hero's outs being in other player's hand but not more than four percent (one out missing)

 

[Chicken Rob]

A couple of additional thoughts. A big part of my thinking is going to focus on UTG because there is potentially going to be a $600 side pot. Hero holds the second nut and UTG's actions so far don't seem all that strong. On a good day, it is UTG with middle or bottom set and Hero is going to be a massive favorite on the side pot. This side pot question greatly influences the main pot decision because Hero seems likely to be getting the better of it for the side pot, offering a subsidy to help with the equity problems in the main pot. One big problem - hero isn't going to get to put UTG all in until after the turn falls and a whole bunch of turn cards are scare cards.

When we are calculating outs, there is an implicit assumption that some of the cards we want are in the other hands. This is literally built into the math. In this hand, Hero has seven cards he wants on the turn. There are four cards in Hero's hand plus three on the board leaving forty five unknown cards in the stub, burn pile, muck and players hands. 15.5% of the cards are good for hero on the turn. sixteen cards are in other player's hands ----> so two or three of the cards hero needs are in the other player's hand just by chance. There might be some reason to think Hero's needed cards are over represented in the hand still in play but off-setting that is there is reason to think the folded hands are holding slightly less than their fair share of hero's desired cards.

We need to be careful about making adjustments to the math. I would have shaved a little off Hero's equity to account for the risk of Hero's outs being in other player's hand but not more than four percent (one out missing)

Thanks for posting this. I wanted to make the same point on the math, but would have been less eloquent.

 

[bentax1978]

When we are calculating outs, there is an implicit assumption that some of the cards we want are in the other hands. This is literally built into the math. In this hand, Hero has seven cards he wants on the turn. There are four cards in Hero's hand plus three on the board leaving forty five unknown cards in the stub, burn pile, muck and players hands. 15.5% of the cards are good for hero on the turn. sixteen cards are in other player's hands ----> so two or three of the cards hero needs are in the other player's hand just by chance. There might be some reason to think Hero's needed cards are over represented in the hand still in play but off-setting that is there is reason to think the folded hands are holding slightly less than their fair share of hero's desired cards.

Excellent point.

Of course this means I probably should have called...

 

[DrStrange]

No, I think a fold is best without villain reads. As the situation is, Hero needs to know there are villains in the mix basically tossing dead money into the pot before I'd call.

The key factor in my decision is the side pot isn't going to be created till the turn - If Hero could bet after UTG calls the big bet (or fold if UTG jams all-in) then I would jam all-in and pray to the Poker Gods.

Just one time! -=- DrStrange

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

A couple of additional thoughts. A big part of my thinking is going to focus on UTG because there is potentially going to be a $600 side pot. Hero holds the second nut and UTG's actions so far don't seem all that strong. On a good day, it is UTG with middle or bottom set and Hero is going to be a massive favorite on the side pot. This side pot question greatly influences the main pot decision because Hero seems likely to be getting the better of it for the side pot, offering a subsidy to help with the equity problems in the main pot. One big problem - hero isn't going to get to put UTG all in until after the turn falls and a whole bunch of turn cards are scare cards.

When we are calculating outs, there is an implicit assumption that some of the cards we want are in the other hands. This is literally built into the math. In this hand, Hero has seven cards he wants on the turn. There are four cards in Hero's hand plus three on the board leaving forty five unknown cards in the stub, burn pile, muck and players hands. 15.5% of the cards are good for hero on the turn. sixteen cards are in other player's hands ----> so two or three of the cards hero needs are in the other player's hand just by chance. There might be some reason to think Hero's needed cards are over represented in the hand still in play but off-setting that is there is reason to think the folded hands are holding slightly less than their fair share of hero's desired cards.

We need to be careful about making adjustments to the math. I would have shaved a little off Hero's equity to account for the risk of Hero's outs being in other player's hand but not more than four percent (one out missing)

If someone else has a set, 3 of heroes outs are dead. UTG could also easily have 78 with no redraw, (if this is the case, with a medium run they also likely have at least one of heroes outs). I would still throw this hand away, and not even think twice about it Doc.

 

[Chicken Rob]

Excellent point.

Of course this means I probably should have called...

I'm not convinced the call is right. You can't be sure to get all that money in. I haven't run the actual math with the side pot, but I suspect you are not much better than break even in this spot if it's +EV at all, and you'd be looking at much greater variance, increasing your ROR. Fold might still be the right play here.

 

[bentax1978]

The key factor in my decision is the side pot isn't going to be created till the turn - If Hero could bet after UTG calls the big bet (or fold if UTG jams all-in) then I would jam all-in and pray to the Poker Gods.

Just to clarify, if I stayed in the pot, all the money would have been in on the flop. MP1 bet 30, MP2 called 30, Hero (button) called 30, SB folded, BB made it 180, UTG called 180, MP1 made it 600, MP2 called all-in for less, then the action was on me. So if I call the 600, BB and UTG would have to decide before the turn if they wanted to play for stacks.

 

[bentax1978]

If someone else has a set, 3 of heroes outs are dead. UTG could also easily have 78 with no redraw, (if this is the case, with a medium run they also likely have at least one of heroes outs). I would still throw this hand away, and not even think twice about it Doc.

If someone else has a set, then two of hero's outs are dead, not three (the third is already on the board and not part of the seven outs). Never mind, forgot about quads. Thanks SOHE-WC.

What @DrStrange is saying is that on average 2.4 of my outs are going to be contained in the other players 16 combined cards. So if someone has a set, that's built-in to the math, so to speak. Otherwise, if you want to try and estimate how many of my outs are in the 16 cards of the four other players, than you'd have to remove all of the rest of their cards from the calculation. So either we assume I have 7 outs in 45 unknown cards or if we assume among the four players they have 2 or 3 of my outs, you have look at is as 4 or 5 outs out of 25 unknown cards. With either approach, the odds are about the same, 15% of filling up on the flop, and about 23% on the river due to the extra 3 outs.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

If someone else has a set, then two of hero's outs are dead, not three (the third is already on the board and not part of the seven outs).

What @DrStrange is saying is that on average 2.4 of my outs are going to be contained in the other players 16 combined cards. So if someone has a set, that's built-in to the math, so to speak. Otherwise, if you want to try and estimate how many of my outs are in the 16 cards of the four other players, than you'd have to remove all of the rest of their cards from the calculation. So either we assume I have 7 outs in 45 unknown cards or if we assume among the four players they have 2 or 3 of my outs, you have look at is as 4 or 5 outs out of 25 unknown cards. With either approach, the odds are about the same, 15% of filling up on the flop, and about 23% on the river due to the extra 3 outs.

Well you wouldn't want them to hit quads, now, would you? Also, if someone had 7h8h, then the 6h is gone too.

 

[jbutler]

A couple of additional thoughts. A big part of my thinking is going to focus on UTG because there is potentially going to be a $600 side pot. Hero holds the second nut and UTG's actions so far don't seem all that strong. On a good day, it is UTG with middle or bottom set and Hero is going to be a massive favorite on the side pot. This side pot question greatly influences the main pot decision because Hero seems likely to be getting the better of it for the side pot, offering a subsidy to help with the equity problems in the main pot. One big problem - hero isn't going to get to put UTG all in until after the turn falls and a whole bunch of turn cards are scare cards.

When we are calculating outs, there is an implicit assumption that some of the cards we want are in the other hands. This is literally built into the math. In this hand, Hero has seven cards he wants on the turn. There are four cards in Hero's hand plus three on the board leaving forty five unknown cards in the stub, burn pile, muck and players hands. 15.5% of the cards are good for hero on the turn. sixteen cards are in other player's hands ----> so two or three of the cards hero needs are in the other player's hand just by chance. There might be some reason to think Hero's needed cards are over represented in the hand still in play but off-setting that is there is reason to think the folded hands are holding slightly less than their fair share of hero's desired cards.

We need to be careful about making adjustments to the math. I would have shaved a little off Hero's equity to account for the risk of Hero's outs being in other player's hand but not more than four percent (one out missing)

Thanks for posting this. I wanted to make the same point on the math, but would have been less eloquent.

I think this is correct for a hand where people have shown no more than a casual interest in their hands (i.e., they limped preflop). So I think I was wrong before to assume that players holding 87xx were significantly more likely than normal to be holding a 9, 6, or 5.

However, if there had been any kind of preflop aggression followed by such strong postflop aggression on this board, I do think it is appropriate to proceed on the assumption that some of your flop outs are more likely to be dead than in the scenario here where everyone had limped and therefore to believe that your equity is lower than if all your outs were live.

 

[bentax1978]

Well you wouldn't want them to hit quads, now, would you? Also, if someone had 7h8h, then the 6h is gone too.

Gotcha, I missed that point.

 

[DrStrange]

A weaker set kills three outs because the last missing card that pairs the board makes quads vs Hero's second nut full house.

I am still assuming that Hero's outs are partly dead in other player's hands beyond the 2-3 there by chance. I think 3-4 dead outs is reasonable given the field.

 

[AWenger]

here's what people have committed in the pot and what they have left in their stack.

Hero $1200 - 30 (1170)

like I folded for the wrong reason.

the truth is I just didn't want to put almost my entire stack at risk that I spend 4 hours building up. I was almost done for the night, and walking away almost $1000 up for the night was very appealing and ultimately tipped my decision to fold.

I am at peace with the thought that making a big fold near the end of a long session where you are up is totally acceptable poker strategy, even if it's mathematically wrong in the moment. My reasoning is there are 'implied odds' to consider. If I had to make up a name for this, I'd call it something like 'reverse implied monkey tilt odds.'

For example, let's say I lose a big hand late in a long session I'm up. After that, there's probably a greater chance I stay at the game much later that I want to, or that I go on monkey tilt and ship it all. Especially in a game like PLO that can have such big swings, where you can be an underdog even if you flop the nuts. With my reasoning, making a stack preserving fold can be +EV for my near term health and sanity, even if it's the wrong mathematical decision at that exact spot in the exact hand. What's a good night sleep worth, especially after booking a big winning session. +EV in my book.

That you've only put in 30 of your 1170 stack in this spot makes it even sweeter. Nice fold.