Mike Wells
3 of a Kind
Snap call.
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Big O turn decision: call or fold? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Beakertwang
- Start date
You’re right. I played games like this at a meetup - at the time, I didn’t mind burning hundred dollar buy-ins. Right now, I’d be comfortable moving the decimal point to the left.
These spots come up a lot. Here is the hand I folded. I don’t think a turn shove gets a fold or I would have done it. But any 5, 10, or 9876 of Spades, or a 678 for likely 1/2 the pot. 12 scoop (nut/nut) outs and another 8 nut low outs. 20 total outs to some form of the nuts.
There could be an argument to call the river since I still have a low with some high side showdown value and @gkitt80 most likely had just a strong high hand. But I hate calling a pot sized bet hoping to get my money back without it being certain.
Also another important idea for PLO8 is that there will always be a high hand, about 40% of the time will the board have a low possible, and still less than that will a low hand actually be live. As in a hand that made it to showdown paired one or more of their low cards and doesn’t have a qualifying low. So don’t over play your low draws without having a made high hand or a strong draw to a high hand.
The stronger your high hand is the less strong your low draw needs to be. Conversely if you have a made nut low that has a redraw in case one of your low cards ends up pairing then the less string your high hand has to be. You can apply pressure to strong but not nut high hands. Having 2 middle of the road hands is disaster in this game.
There could be an argument to call the river since I still have a low with some high side showdown value and @gkitt80 most likely had just a strong high hand. But I hate calling a pot sized bet hoping to get my money back without it being certain.
Also another important idea for PLO8 is that there will always be a high hand, about 40% of the time will the board have a low possible, and still less than that will a low hand actually be live. As in a hand that made it to showdown paired one or more of their low cards and doesn’t have a qualifying low. So don’t over play your low draws without having a made high hand or a strong draw to a high hand.
The stronger your high hand is the less strong your low draw needs to be. Conversely if you have a made nut low that has a redraw in case one of your low cards ends up pairing then the less string your high hand has to be. You can apply pressure to strong but not nut high hands. Having 2 middle of the road hands is disaster in this game.
OP
OP
This is great info—thanks!
And thanks to everyone else who choked in as well!
And just to do a street-by-street check:
—preflop call seems like the only reasonable option. Hero’s hand isn’t strong enough to repot, especially with the original raiser behind.
—flop lead is questionable, although i imagine the end result would have been the same. Someone would have potted, I wasnt folding.
Thoughts?
Not to try and thread jack @Beakertwang but is a shove right there by the hero the right play? Especially knowing that someone with the nut flush draw and redraws to a FH or straight is calling every time?
OP
OP
You mean in my hand?
Yes, but not hero (you), I mean the person that shoved with the set of deuces. I’m no Omaha expert but shoving right there to me seems a bit overly aggressive. Especially since it’s bottom set and anyone with draws isn’t folding. I know in hindsight it’s obviously the right play, but is it technically the right play? I guess the stats say it is.
OP
OP
Gotcha, you meant the villain.
I’m not sure. He actually won the low with 47, but I doubt that was on his mind. He had the open ended straight flush draw, plus a 10, so he removed 6 of my high outs. Villain also may have considered the board pairing to be in his favor.
This was hi/lo???
DrStrange
4 of a Kind
I thought the flop lead was a mistake. Hero isn't going to like getting raised. Hero's flop holding is good, but not so good if someone goes to war. I prefer a check call line.
Preflop is fine. Raising opens the real possibility of getting an isolating repot from UTG+1. That is close to a puke/fold situation. But calling a pot sized bet out of position is mostly going to lead to folding the flop. Though looking at the hands after the fact, I see that the table is quite far out there on the loose scale - perhaps reaching fool-hearty. Boomfish's QsJ87s5 is a clean fold preflop - a garbage/trouble hand. Nothing close to a raise. Him, I would isolate preflop if I could.
As for the villain - Boomfish holding the nut straight and an emergency low draw - he is in a must-bet situation on the turn. Huge numbers of draws out there. Single draw hands should fold, but many will not. There are no more decisions everyone is effectively all-in. This would merit far more discussion if the really big bets will come on the river.
As for the guy holding bottom set. That is a sucker hand, in vanilla. Worse in big O. Make a note, check it twice. This guy is going to pay someone off almost every night. But it mostly puts paid to hero's top two pair. On the turn he is drawing thin, perhaps seduced by the two out OESF draw.
This seems to be a GREAT table sir. A veritable feast - apologies to other PCF members unnamed. Even so, variation will be large and lady luck can be quite harsh.
PS this is one of those instant table reads. An "n" of one is fine seeing how the two villains played their hands. While I would be keeping an open mind, those guys seem like pretty easy pickings for a patient hunter.
Preflop is fine. Raising opens the real possibility of getting an isolating repot from UTG+1. That is close to a puke/fold situation. But calling a pot sized bet out of position is mostly going to lead to folding the flop. Though looking at the hands after the fact, I see that the table is quite far out there on the loose scale - perhaps reaching fool-hearty. Boomfish's QsJ87s5 is a clean fold preflop - a garbage/trouble hand. Nothing close to a raise. Him, I would isolate preflop if I could.
As for the villain - Boomfish holding the nut straight and an emergency low draw - he is in a must-bet situation on the turn. Huge numbers of draws out there. Single draw hands should fold, but many will not. There are no more decisions everyone is effectively all-in. This would merit far more discussion if the really big bets will come on the river.
As for the guy holding bottom set. That is a sucker hand, in vanilla. Worse in big O. Make a note, check it twice. This guy is going to pay someone off almost every night. But it mostly puts paid to hero's top two pair. On the turn he is drawing thin, perhaps seduced by the two out OESF draw.
This seems to be a GREAT table sir. A veritable feast - apologies to other PCF members unnamed. Even so, variation will be large and lady luck can be quite harsh.
PS this is one of those instant table reads. An "n" of one is fine seeing how the two villains played their hands. While I would be keeping an open mind, those guys seem like pretty easy pickings for a patient hunter.
OP
OP
Yep
OP
OP
Thanks, good doctor! If you wrote IKEA assembly instructions, I would read them in my free time.
The value of an A in your hand cannot be overstated.
DrStrange
4 of a Kind
You know once upon a time, I helped teach clients to write things like those IKEA instructions. Instruction manuals for how to do all the jobs in the client's company. It often boggled people's mind that the consulting firm would include me the numbers guy to help run the writing class.
Let me say it wasn't fun. I had no patience at all for the level of detail and precision needed for this task. All day, sometimes all week. < fun diversion. Write an instruction for how to make a PB&J sandwich. Then let me "follow" your instructions. Let's say it normally leads to quite an inedible mess. >
Much more fun to do simple applied math all week. I liked teaching the guys in the machine shop how to do the math. Like no one ever thought they had a brain, but we knew better . . . . .
But it paid really well -=- DrStrange
Let me say it wasn't fun. I had no patience at all for the level of detail and precision needed for this task. All day, sometimes all week. < fun diversion. Write an instruction for how to make a PB&J sandwich. Then let me "follow" your instructions. Let's say it normally leads to quite an inedible mess. >
Much more fun to do simple applied math all week. I liked teaching the guys in the machine shop how to do the math. Like no one ever thought they had a brain, but we knew better . . . . .
But it paid really well -=- DrStrange
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
As the good Doctor said, bottom set is a money burner in these games
So true! With an Ace it is like having 6 cards compared to 5 since it is used for high and low. When I first was learning PLO8 everything I read said don’t play a hand without an Ace in it.
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Changster
Full House
I might post our hand later, but I'm sure it will make me look like an idiot.
I can’t even remember it.
kirchhausen
Flush
100% get it all in
I play a lot of big o. I put all my chips in the pot and my car keys ..... and apparently end up walking home.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
I think you have to assume you are against a QJ here somewhere, worst case would be against something like QJT9 or QJT8, and someone else could be in there with an A3 as well.
I think it would be fun exercise to count every unseen card rank by rank
Deuce - the spade one might be good since you block sets pretty heavily, the other two are bad.
2 bad, 1 maybe good
Three - this would be a bad river
3 bad
Four - All good for nut low, one good for the nut nut.
4 good
Five - All good for nut low, one good for the nut nut.
4 good
Six - All good for nut low, one good for the nut nut.
4 good
Seven - All good for nut low, one good for the nut nut.
4 good
Eight - Probably good for the winning full since you block TT and 99 seems unlikely.
2 good
Nine - All nines are bad
3 Bad
Ten - Likely good for the nut hi unless someone has T9. Ts may be a trouble card if facing Qs-Js
2 good
Jack - Spade is good (except if villian holds QTs or T7s), the others are all bad
1 good, 3 bad
Queen - Spade is good, the others are bad
1 good, 3 bad
King - Spade is good, the others are bad
1 good, 3 bad
Ace - All remaining aces are bad
3 bad.
So I can come up with 19 bad rivers versus 24 good ones. The Ks is the only definite scoop, the other spades either make a straight flush possible, a bigger full possible, or a shared low possible. The Full house outs I think would usually be good, but there is a chance for a sick cooler on any of those cards. 16 outs to at least the nut low but again, decent chance that would end up getting shared, that happens way more in 5 card than 4 card.
If we are assuming QJ is out, a certain percentage of the time it will be out in spades blocking our best rivers aside from the Ks.
So 45% of the time (19 bricks), we probably get nothing.
So 28% of the time (12 outs, non spade lows), we probably get between quarter and half. Let's call it 35% of the pot. $126
So 12% of the time (5 outs, low spades), we get between 3/4 and all, let's call it 90% of the pot. $288
So 15% of the time (7 outs, big spades, 8s, 10s), we get it all barring straight flushes and over fulls. Let's call that 90% of the pot as well to discount the coolers $288
(.45 * 0) + (.28 * 126) + (.12 * 288) + (.15 * 288) =
0 + 35.28 + 34.56 + 43.2 = 113.04 EV of the call.
That's greater than $89 pretty clearly so it should be a good call.
I think it would be fun exercise to count every unseen card rank by rank
Deuce - the spade one might be good since you block sets pretty heavily, the other two are bad.
2 bad, 1 maybe good
Three - this would be a bad river
3 bad
Four - All good for nut low, one good for the nut nut.
4 good
Five - All good for nut low, one good for the nut nut.
4 good
Six - All good for nut low, one good for the nut nut.
4 good
Seven - All good for nut low, one good for the nut nut.
4 good
Eight - Probably good for the winning full since you block TT and 99 seems unlikely.
2 good
Nine - All nines are bad
3 Bad
Ten - Likely good for the nut hi unless someone has T9. Ts may be a trouble card if facing Qs-Js
2 good
Jack - Spade is good (except if villian holds QTs or T7s), the others are all bad
1 good, 3 bad
Queen - Spade is good, the others are bad
1 good, 3 bad
King - Spade is good, the others are bad
1 good, 3 bad
Ace - All remaining aces are bad
3 bad.
So I can come up with 19 bad rivers versus 24 good ones. The Ks is the only definite scoop, the other spades either make a straight flush possible, a bigger full possible, or a shared low possible. The Full house outs I think would usually be good, but there is a chance for a sick cooler on any of those cards. 16 outs to at least the nut low but again, decent chance that would end up getting shared, that happens way more in 5 card than 4 card.
If we are assuming QJ is out, a certain percentage of the time it will be out in spades blocking our best rivers aside from the Ks.
So 45% of the time (19 bricks), we probably get nothing.
So 28% of the time (12 outs, non spade lows), we probably get between quarter and half. Let's call it 35% of the pot. $126
So 12% of the time (5 outs, low spades), we get between 3/4 and all, let's call it 90% of the pot. $288
So 15% of the time (7 outs, big spades, 8s, 10s), we get it all barring straight flushes and over fulls. Let's call that 90% of the pot as well to discount the coolers $288
(.45 * 0) + (.28 * 126) + (.12 * 288) + (.15 * 288) =
0 + 35.28 + 34.56 + 43.2 = 113.04 EV of the call.
That's greater than $89 pretty clearly so it should be a good call.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
So I hadn't read the result before posting.
That's a heck of an estimate doc.
Now that said, if this weren't short handed and a suited-ace, I'm really not a fan of bare A-3 holdings in big-o. Really should have a third wheel card to leave the gate with this hand most of the time in big-O. "Low backup" is a much bigger deal in the 5 card game than its 4 card counterpart, lows get shared enough as it is, having counterfit protection is a big deal. This particular had really is on the call-fold edge to me in an 8 handed game, 6 handed it's an okay call, without the suited ace, I think it's a fold.
And I do think I am with @DrStrange top two isn't a flop-lead holding here except maybe heads up. Everyone is likely to have between a piece of the straight draw and some sort of wrap. No fold equity and not a lot of clean turns except for full houses or completing the nut low, all of which are vulnerable to redraws as well.
But in any event, good call on the river, bad result.
That's a heck of an estimate doc
.Now that said, if this weren't short handed and a suited-ace, I'm really not a fan of bare A-3 holdings in big-o. Really should have a third wheel card to leave the gate with this hand most of the time in big-O. "Low backup" is a much bigger deal in the 5 card game than its 4 card counterpart, lows get shared enough as it is, having counterfit protection is a big deal. This particular had really is on the call-fold edge to me in an 8 handed game, 6 handed it's an okay call, without the suited ace, I think it's a fold.
And I do think I am with @DrStrange top two isn't a flop-lead holding here except maybe heads up. Everyone is likely to have between a piece of the straight draw and some sort of wrap. No fold equity and not a lot of clean turns except for full houses or completing the nut low, all of which are vulnerable to redraws as well.
But in any event, good call on the river, bad result.
I was told there would be no math!! My math simpler:
loc lo draw plus nut flush draw plus top 2p = 3 reasons to put my stack in. I usually only need one so never folding.
detroitdad
Royal Flush
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Hey hey! No one gives you shit for playing smart!
Im just glad to know that if you call/raise pre, you’re probably sitting with 3 lows min. Triple suited
I have wondered...there are a lot of hands to raise preflop...but what is the best starting hand?
AAKK2, double suited aces or AAK32, double suited aces? Or, are both hands the best? I have a lot to learn in this game.
detroitdad
Royal Flush
Hey hey! No one gives you shit for playing smart!
Im just glad to know that if you call/raise pre, you’re probably sitting with 3 lows min. Triple suited
double suited with aces
Anthony Martino
Royal Flush
I'd take AAK23 over AAKK2 as it's more flexible and you block the set of Kings with AAK23 anyway so not overly worried
detroitdad
Royal Flush
A/A/2/3 x (preferably a K or a 4) with suited aces. I'll play for stacks with that hand.
Depending on position and the action, I will play with out a low protection, but I better have a pretty solid high option.
JustinInMN
4 of a Kind
So I realized I had lumped the 2s in this group and that isn't a 3/4 pot card at all because it doesn't make a low, paring the board. Either the flush is good or a villain makes a full house. Hero blocks the bigger full houses pretty heavily, and 99 doesn't seem super likely, even in big-o, nines generally suck. A villian having a deuce seems like so a deuce with a straggler that makes a full wouldn't be unheard of. So I might have overstated this line a bit. Still seems like a good call.
You’re so brave!
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