Bubble of Satellite Hand (1 Viewer)

[Anthony Martino]

Don't generally play satellites but had won a seat from a previous tourney I was in (they give out five tickets for this satellite for the first five flushes)

59 entries, 9 players win a seat. We are down to the final table of 10.

When we started there were three other short stacks along with me, but they have all made moves and chipped back up ahead of me and I'm the shortest stack.

Blinds 800/1600 with a 200 ante. I am UTG and on the next hand blinds will jump to 1K/2K with a 300 ante.

I have 6700 left in my stack, the next shortest stack is 14K

UTG I'm dealt

Shove here or try my best to just fold and wait out someone else making a mistake?

 

[Trihonda]

Fold...

 

[colter ripton]

I don't know ......... you'd be left with 3100 after the blinds...... you would have to go all in within the next few hands anyway......im thinking shove.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I shoved because it was the best hand I had seen in awhile and I didn't feel like my stack could handle being withered further given the gap between myself and other stacks.

I'd be bleeding 6K in chips in the next round and be just about out with blinds and antes. Although I hated being UTG with the AJ, would much rather have it folded to me on the button and then I'm shoving. Having AJ and having to get through the entire table is a bitch. UTG+1 immediately reshoved his stack (surprised he didn't just call anyway, I think that's the correct play in these spots?) with KK and I didn't improve so bubbled.

 

[Poker Zombie]

One gets cut, and the others go on to the main event - no cash differential?

Shove. The game here is to not be last - and you currently are. If you were 2nd shortest stack, or there was unwarranted uber-aggression at the table I might fold. Without either of those factors, the executioner needs to collect one more head before he goes home for the day, and you are the next in line. Even a double-up only buys you time right now, and you need all the time you can get.

 

[Ronoh]

Fold. Ten handed table and you have less than half the next shortest stack, if the table knows what they’re doing you should be facing AT LEAST three calls (likely more) from big stacks with any two cards followed by a full check down.

Don’t be afraid to be the annoying small stack who folds to the prize... you have a full ten hands left before being forced all in and with a couple M2 short stacks around you could easily get there.

 

[Trihonda]

Ya like Ronoh said.

And I hate the KK reshove too. If I’m KK I’m flatting and hoping to get 4 other callers to chase you down. Once your gone, it’s over. So no reason to care about chip stack sizing after the hand.

Knowing this is likely, given competent satellite players at the table, you’re a huge dog. If there are idiots at the table, and sounds like there were, maybe other stacks get it in before you, and you survive.

Maybe KK gets action and is run down by another player if you’re not in the hand? Who knows. I’m still folding with AJ UTG.

 

[FDLmold]

KK reshove is donkalicious. I can see AJ in this spot both ways. UTG probably pushes me to a fold, but if the table is smart, they are folding every hand waiting for you to bust or get blinded off, so AJ is a pretty good hand to make your stand.

 

[DrStrange]

Posting preliminary results two hours after a four am (central time) original post is way too fast.

Hero is at a fateful decision point. He can a) fold the next ten hands where upon the eleventh hand he is all in for 700 in the big blind. The plan here is the table will do something stupid in the next orbit and let Hero fold his way to victory. Even if hero gets pocket aces in these ten hands, he likely is still in last place with an all-in, multiple callers and aces not getting cracked.

Or b) Hero's other option is to shove now. Hero has to fade nine villain hands - someone is likely to have something worth playing. The big blind is almost priced in with any two cards. Hero isn't going to raise it / take it very often, Hero is going to have to win the pot with the best hand. AJo is roughly a tenth percentile hand. I.e. likely to be the best hand hero is going to see before he is eliminated by the blinds / antes.

Vs a "competent" field, Hero should shove. We don't get much of a read about the field. But the fact that a sequence of short stacks have tested their luck and survived makes me think the field is competent enough to understand the basic game theory in play at the moment. If Hero feels otherwise, then he can go for the wait ten hands and pray for an outbreak of stupid. Me? I think shove is the best choice.

If Hero didn't just become the short stack, I encourage him to be more aggressive sooner in the future. The current situation is filled with bad and worse options. Hero was quite lucky to get a "go to war" quality hand before the blinds fully crippled him.

Just one time, one time -=- DrStrange

 

[Ronoh]

hero has to fade nine villain hands - someone is likely to have something worth playing

Vs a "competent" field, Hero should shove.

We haven’t been provided with the numbers but I feel like you are underestimating just how short hero is in relation to the other stacks. Hero has 6700 with an M of 1, 9th place has 14,000. I was lowballing at “at least three callers”, he should be getting five.

 

[DrStrange]

I expect hero to get called by a lot of players, perhaps not any of the three other short stacks, so let's say five callers is about right. On average, Hero has the best hand or second best hand and has ~20 - 25 percent equity. Not too bad for putting in 18% of the chips.

If Hero waits for something stupid to happen or a ultra premium hand, a competent table just waits with him and executes the same play for fewer chips - after the blinds a lot fewer - where Hero will be facing maybe 8+ villain hands where hero is playing worse cards.

If Hero thinks there is a 20% chance stupid breaks out in the next ten hands, he can wait. I still think Hero waited too long as it is and I note that stupid didn't happen then either.

It isn't as though hero has a good option - it is the lesser of two evils -=- DrStrange

 

[navels]

on the bubble i'd fold and look to push very wide from late position.

 

[davin]

It's a FOLD

 

[Gunnar]

Sure fold for me

 

[Trihonda]

Dr Strange, given KK’s donk play, I suspect that a couple of these players aren’t adept at satty strat.

Iwjat makes satellites so easy imho is people’s inability to finish. People play these like regular tourneys and do dumb stuff like trying to iso once someone is AIPF, or getting involved with premium hands when near the bubble. I’ve folded AA and KK when short stacked, and near a bubble. Granted there were shorter stacks In the game, but I’ve seen people with10bb start shove into a table full of 200bb stacks (on the bubble) with AA and get called by 7 players, and bust out, with several 2bb stacks at other tables... someone else will bust out, trying to chip up with a big hand.

 

[kmccormick100]

I'm never getting here with 4BB left, I'm betting you probably missed some better shove spots in late position with fold equity when people are playing insanely tight approaching the bubble.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Shove and here's my logic. Yes you can last an entire round and hope to limp into the money because one of the other short stacks shoves. But unless they are dumb they know they can also do the same and they do NOT have to make move in the next round since they have more than you do.. If I am one of the other short stacks I am folding anything but an absolute monster because I know I can last longer folding than you can.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I'm never getting here with 4BB left, I'm betting you probably missed some better shove spots in late position with fold equity when people are playing insanely tight approaching the bubble.

I had 16k going i to the final table, avg stack was around 22k

This is a satellite with few starting chips and fast blind levels

I had more than three other short stacks and was waiting them out but they all had the opportunity to shove pre and got folds, while I continued to bleed

 

[upNdown]

Dr Strange, given KK’s donk play, I suspect that a couple of these players aren’t adept at satty strat.

Iwjat makes satellites so easy imho is people’s inability to finish. People play these like regular tourneys and do dumb stuff like trying to iso once someone is AIPF, or getting involved with premium hands when near the bubble. I’ve folded AA and KK when short stacked, and near a bubble. Granted there were shorter stacks In the game, but I’ve seen people with10bb start shove into a table full of 200bb stacks (on the bubble) with AA and get called by 7 players, and bust out, with several 2bb stacks at other tables... someone else will bust out, trying to chip up with a big hand.

I’m sure that’s all true. I’ve never played a satellite. I’d like to think I’d put some thought into it beforehand, but I’m glad threads like this exist, to tip me off to think about it differently.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Discussed this with my son and he had the same answer as I did. Since the other short stacks can outlive you by just folding it out then you must shove. Unless you think they are stupid and don't understand the situation they are going to fold and wait you out, Since all you are playing for is a ticket chip stacks at this point are irrelevant. You either win a ticket or you don't and your best chance to win one is to shove here.

 

[BGinGA]

Still folding. Shoving this hand closer to the end of the action is quite a bit different than being first-in with a full table yet to act. Players have already indicated a willingness to mix it up, so I'm folding to give them a chance to do so, while waiting for a better spot than AJ with nine hands to act.

Note that in a non-satellite setting, I'm shoving. But not here....

 

[upNdown]

Still folding. Shoving this hand closer to the end of the action is quite a bit different than being first-in with a full table yet to act. Players have already indicated a willingness to mix it up, so I'm folding to give them a chance to do so, while waiting for a better spot than AJ with nine hands to act.
Note that in a non-satellite setting, I'm shoving. But not here....

Totally makes sense. The problem is that his stack (or M whatever) is so small. Next hand his big blind and ante total 2300, leaving him with 4400 behind. If there’s one limper, great, you’re shoving with any two cards. But if a few people get involved in that hand (and if they’re smart, they will) then he could be up against just as many callers with probably far worse cards. Or he could wait until the next hand where he’s small blind with 3100 behind. And then next hand, he’s finally the button and he’ll have a whopping 2800 to jam into a pot that’s at minimum 6k with blinds and antes.
I think whomever said he waited too long was right. But as played, he can’t wait any longer, because realistically his situation can only get worse.

 

[Ronoh]

he can’t wait any longer, because realistically his situation can only get worse.

As someone who has played literally hundreds of satalites (the PS 36+3’s were my jam back in the day) his goal is no longer to find a hand to play, it’s to let someone else bust.

I understand the table can theoretically try to wait him out but it doesn’t tend to ultimately happen that way. He has ten hands before he is forced all in. If those ten hands have gone by he still hasn’t lost, if he wins the hand where he is forced all in he wins another full orbit (and he will likely not be up against more players than he will be up against if he jams here with AJo).

The odds of someone busting this orbit or winning the hand he is forced all in is greater than winning this hand when he gets five callers.

 

[upNdown]

I understand the table can theoretically try to wait him out but it doesn’t tend to ultimately happen that way.

I'll have to take your word for it. It doesn't make sense, when the next biggest stack is more than double his, but I guess I also know you can't count on a table full of poker players to play smart.

 

[Ronoh]

I guess I also know you can't count on a table full of poker players to play smart.

The guy shoving his KK over top of Anthony confirms that

 

[Poker Zombie]

As someone who has played literally hundreds of satalites (the PS 36+3’s were my jam back in the day) his goal is no longer to find a hand to play, it’s to let someone else bust.

I understand the table can theoretically try to wait him out but it doesn’t tend to ultimately happen that way. He has ten hands before he is forced all in. If those ten hands have gone by he still hasn’t lost, if he wins the hand where he is forced all in he wins another full orbit (and he will likely not be up against more players than he will be up against if he jams here with AJo).

The odds of someone busting this orbit or winning the hand he is forced all in is greater than winning this hand when he gets five callers.

How many tables were left in the p* games? It's far easier to wait out the short-stack when everyone is at the same table. When the bubble is still 2+ tables, it's a little harder to track where the short stack is, and how tight/aggro the table is acting with the short-stack, so a 2nd short-stack may jam a top 10% hand just to make sure they aren't the short-stack.

If it were 2+ tables, I see the fold. When the everyone is looking at me to die off, I gotta jam.

 

[Ronoh]

How many tables were left in the p* games? It's far easier to wait out the short-stack when everyone is at the same table. When the bubble is still 2+ tables, it's a little harder to track where the short stack is, and how tight/aggro the table is acting with the short-stack, so a 2nd short-stack may jam a top 10% hand just to make sure they aren't the short-stack.

Varied. Plays hand-for-hand on the bubble so I assume when more than one table most players had the other remaining table(s) up, watching.

 

[BGinGA]

his goal is no longer to find a hand to play, it’s to let someone else bust.

^ This says it all. Folding gives him another nine hands to let that happen.

 

[Poker Zombie]

Varied. Plays hand-for-hand on the bubble so I assume when more than one table most players had the other remaining table(s) up, watching.

I remember them going hand-for-hand, but I frequently had a hard time actually watching every short-stack. I could track my personal stack vs the field when the "Players Remaining" list would update, but that wouldn't let me know if one of the shorts got it in, or if the table was calling down the short when they jammed.

That said, I was still "learning" poker in those days, had the basic concept down, and I was very well versed in game theory so I did well enough - but there were a lot of angles that I never took advantage of (multi-screens, dashboards, etc).

 

[moose]

It is the last hand you have any fold equity at all. Fake looking at your cards and shove blind. No matter how stupid people are, they can count. If you fold, you are all in in the next BB.

Run another strategy thread. BB just folded and he is going to have 2800 chips left on the button. The ante is 300 and he will be all in in the next BB. I have 14k, should I fold AA and wait him out or shove? Would anyone advocate shoving in this situation?

No. Never.

Only way someone busts in front of him in this situation is if they are walking back to the table, trips and accidently shoves all their chips in.