Bubble of Satellite Hand (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Anthony Martino
- Start date
Are you basing this on how you assume satellite end-game works? They rarely go down the way you think they should and you don't even have to look any further than this tournament to see it. We only know anything about two of the ten players remaining. One is hero. The other is the guy who was next to act and re-shoved over the top of hero's shortstack.
I also think it’s possible that KK (absent hero’s shove) makes a modest raise and gets a caller or two, and possibly gets his kings cracked...? Who knows?
I’ve seen some super donkish behavior around the bubble of satellites I’ve played in. Just head scratching “what were they thinking” stuff...
Had a shorter stack shove (on the bubble). three full tables advance. The shove gets called by 7 Players, Who all see the flop, then the first to act reshoves.... huh? There’s a dude all in, and once they bust, the game is over, and chip stacks are meaningless. Who cares who busts the short stack... but dude wants to take him on heads up? Obv much more likely dude busts vs 7 other Players vs 1.. so dumb...
moose
4 of a Kind
I meant after he folds 10 more hands waiting for someone to bust.
On the button he will have 2800, less than a big blind, guaranteeing a call if he wakes up with something 'worth' going all in with.
It's rediculous, on one hand people say fold because people will play good and call him at the same time justifying his fold by saying people will play bad and bust themselves before he will get blinded out.
lol, just looks like two different reasons to fold. If the table is full of good players, fold... and if it's full of donks, fold. No really good reason to shove, although I'd say it's definitely better to fold with donks in play, which is usually the case.
It’s two completely different things. Yes, people in mass will call an insignificant amount of chips and check it down when a short stack is all in. And yes, people will continue playing poker instead of blind folding their way to the prize when the shortest stack is not involved in a hand.
That’s why I asked if you’re basing your statement on assumptions... or are you basing it on actual satellite experience? My observations are based on literally hundreds of satellites I’ve played. I didn’t say I could explain the why behind it but that is, in fact, how they tend to play out.
Steve Birrer
Two Pair
Without having been at the table and being able to judge how savy the rest of the players are makes this all a bit of a guess. But I think some of you are way overestimating how stupid the rest of the players are in saying you should fold. You are banking on two things.
1. They don't realize they have you screwed if they just wait you out.
2. The likelihood that you get a better hand than A J in the next 10 hands.
And I suspect there is one other thing that we haven't discussed. Some of you have said you don't like shoving UTG with so many players behind. And I agree with that. However, the flip side of that same situation is that it can also portray that you have a really strong hand since you didn't have to shove.
1. They don't realize they have you screwed if they just wait you out.
2. The likelihood that you get a better hand than A J in the next 10 hands.
And I suspect there is one other thing that we haven't discussed. Some of you have said you don't like shoving UTG with so many players behind. And I agree with that. However, the flip side of that same situation is that it can also portray that you have a really strong hand since you didn't have to shove.
Being UTG is not an ideal position in the sense of having to get 8 folds, or win a flip. However, the blinds are about to hit you; and you are unlikely to get a hand that good on either of the next two hands.
If you fold, you can expect to either (a) have to shove a worse hand on the next hand from the big blind, or (b) to fold both the BB and SB, at which point your stack will be even smaller (6,700-1,600-200-800-200 = 3,900).
With 3,900 you can see six more hands for 200 each. But you will have even less fold equity than before, and will be bleeding 200 per hand. If you shove with 3,900 or less, you are sure to face multiple callers unless someone isolates. You’re going to have to pray you pick up a better hand than AJo in the next few hands, and there are only about 18 or 19 better starting hands out of 169 possible combos. If you hit the big blind a second time, you’re going to have to get all in with a random hand.
With 6,700, you have a least some chance of folding everyone out, or getting heads up. With blinds and antes there is already 4,200 in the pot. Even if you get called by a better starting hands (mainly pocket pairs, suited aces, some Broadway combos), you’re still good about 40-45% of the time against that range. If you think you have even a little fold equity to add to that, you have a decent shot at almost tripling up.
Meanwhile, the other players (as has been pointed out by others) are surely mindful of how short you are, and are likely to let you get blinded off, or hope one of the big stacks pick you off. In that sense, you may not have to fade so many people, as you’re probably only getting called by the 1-2 biggest stacks or someone who happens to get dealt a monster.
Since your next smallest stack is more than twice the size of yours, and given how short you’ll be when the blinds hit you the next hand, I would go with the AJo and just accept the consequences.
If you fold, you can expect to either (a) have to shove a worse hand on the next hand from the big blind, or (b) to fold both the BB and SB, at which point your stack will be even smaller (6,700-1,600-200-800-200 = 3,900).
With 3,900 you can see six more hands for 200 each. But you will have even less fold equity than before, and will be bleeding 200 per hand. If you shove with 3,900 or less, you are sure to face multiple callers unless someone isolates. You’re going to have to pray you pick up a better hand than AJo in the next few hands, and there are only about 18 or 19 better starting hands out of 169 possible combos. If you hit the big blind a second time, you’re going to have to get all in with a random hand.
With 6,700, you have a least some chance of folding everyone out, or getting heads up. With blinds and antes there is already 4,200 in the pot. Even if you get called by a better starting hands (mainly pocket pairs, suited aces, some Broadway combos), you’re still good about 40-45% of the time against that range. If you think you have even a little fold equity to add to that, you have a decent shot at almost tripling up.
Meanwhile, the other players (as has been pointed out by others) are surely mindful of how short you are, and are likely to let you get blinded off, or hope one of the big stacks pick you off. In that sense, you may not have to fade so many people, as you’re probably only getting called by the 1-2 biggest stacks or someone who happens to get dealt a monster.
Since your next smallest stack is more than twice the size of yours, and given how short you’ll be when the blinds hit you the next hand, I would go with the AJo and just accept the consequences.
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trever
Flush
I was in this exact spot in a big online tournament 15 years ago. I shoved, got called by AA and lost.
Unanimous opinion at the table was that I was a complete moron. They also thought I should have folded.
Unanimous opinion at the table was that I was a complete moron. They also thought I should have folded.
You weren’t a moron, assuming you had a decent hand to shove with. You just ran into aces.
If the table is competent and I expect 4+ callers to check it down: I'm folding. AJo vs 4 random hands is 28.8%, and worse against the types of hands that are calling. I'd have better odds shoving ATC from the blinds or the button if I can see a runout against only 1-2 callers.
If the table is in "fold to the win" mode and I think I can get by with no more than a caller or two, I'm probably shoving. I might get unlucky and run into KK, but if too many players are folding, I'm more likely to get those folds now than I will after the blinds have eaten half of my stack.
I haven't played many satellites, and I've never run this deep in one, but I'm inclined to believe folks like @Ronoh who believe that I will get a lot of callers. I'm probably always folding here.
If the table is in "fold to the win" mode and I think I can get by with no more than a caller or two, I'm probably shoving. I might get unlucky and run into KK, but if too many players are folding, I'm more likely to get those folds now than I will after the blinds have eaten half of my stack.
I haven't played many satellites, and I've never run this deep in one, but I'm inclined to believe folks like @Ronoh who believe that I will get a lot of callers. I'm probably always folding here.
I’d expect one caller with a hand close in value to your own, unless you get lucky (everyone folds) or unlucky (multiple people have a calling hand). But if you have some live read that people are in a mood to gamble/try to bust you, that’s different.
I suppose some bigger stacks might gang up on you, figuring that if 3+ of them get it in against you they together have a good chance breaking the bubble. This assumes they are willing to sacrifice 4-5 big blinds for the communal good. And that requires 3+ people to both have plausible hands and to all be thinking that way, without discussing it (which would be collusion).
I suppose some bigger stacks might gang up on you, figuring that if 3+ of them get it in against you they together have a good chance breaking the bubble. This assumes they are willing to sacrifice 4-5 big blinds for the communal good. And that requires 3+ people to both have plausible hands and to all be thinking that way, without discussing it (which would be collusion).
Steve Birrer
Two Pair
You fold guys are still overlooking the simple fact that the entire table can just fold it around for the next 10 hands and you are screwed.
Have you read the posts? I’ve addressed that numerous times.
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