Cash Game - Mid Position Tough Spot (1 Viewer)

[gopherblue]

Hero is playing in a 1/2 cash game, has had the deck absolutely hit him early on. Ran a $200 buy-in way up (ultimately cashed out $800+). Notable run-good hands: JJ held; TT held; raised to $10 from CO with 74ss, button made it $25, hero called and flopped a straight and ultimately gets it in; AA gets all in against button straddler PF and holds. You know, the usual.

Then this happens:

Sitting in mid position, with QTs, make it $10 to go. Three callers.

Flop: Q72 rainbow.

SB bets $25 ($200-ish behind), hero calls ($600+ behind), villain with position behind hero ($550-600 behind) calls.

Turn: T (completes rainbow).

SB bets $50, hero flats. Villain behind makes it $150. SB ships for $205 total. Villain acts after hero and has $390 or so behind.

What do we range villain on and what's the play?

 

[Kain8]

Nit powers, ACTIVATE!

You're only behind a set at this point.

But the betting is pretty indicative that one of the two other players has a set. The flop is about as dry as you can get so a set has no incentive for raising on the flop. Top two pair is enormously hard to fold, but really, what can you beat? I doubt the villain is shoveling money in with just AQ with you still in the mix. It's a pretty tough spot, but you can get away pretty cheaply and you'd get some closure seeing their hands as undoubtedly the villain is going to call another $55.

 

[glom]

Just get it all in. Top 2 vs bottom set is a classic cooler. Villain behind could have a hand like KQ and AQ or even T7 as easily as a set.

 

[Random Phish]

Just get it all in. Top 2 vs bottom set is a classic cooler. Villain behind could have a hand like KQ and AQ or even T7 as easily as a set.

Does it change anything that there two villains in the hand? The SB who’s all-in and the villain in position?

 

[Jimulacrum]

Can we get some info on our two villains? Some players, I'm happy to ship all day with this, but with others, not so much. Villain behind having you covered for so much more matters a lot. On a dry flop like that, flat calling and then raising the turn makes him the likely stronger of the two hands, IMO. He'd have to be pretty ignorant to not be considering your stack in his play of this hand, in which case he may be trying to trap you for it.

Assuming neither villain is a maniac or a super-newb from 2003, I'm not expecting anyone to have one pair or less here. Maybe one of them got cute and slowplayed KK or AA, but given the possibilities on this board, being tied for top two pair seems like a best-case scenario. Between the two of them, at least one set seems very likely.

Top two pair versus a set is not a cooler, especially not in deep-stack poker and on such a dry board.

 

[Psypher1000]

Without knowing more about SB and the villain it's hard to put him on a specific range, but with what I have available I'd put him on 22 or 77 figuring he felt out the field post-and feels he has it beat. QT or TT could also be in his range as well, but less likely given the blockers. Might also be on a semi-bluff with position holding A10 or AQ. Regardless, w/o knowing more I think 22 or 77 are most likely.

I get out of the way here. There's a few ways we could make some money here, but I think it more likely that either SB or Villain has us beat. Given that SB called pre-flop and opened fairly strong post-flop OOP, I actually would have been more afraid of him having QQ.

 

[Coyote]

I "might" try against one villain, not two. One of them has a set (if not both of them, that is).

 

[DrStrange]

First impression is that Hero is infatuated with fancy plays given how well they worked earlier in this session. Not necessarily a bad thing, but I'd be whispering "I am but a man" in my own ear. . . . Suffice it to say I have reservations about Hero's line.

As others have asked, I too need a villain read. TAG vs LAG vs passive calling station. Greenhorn vs idiot vs veteran vs wise owl. Do the villains ever think about the other players and their actions? Hero's table image is important here as well.

This is a bone dry flop. Absolutely the most bone dry possible flop. Yet we have three players looking like they want to play for stacks. Are they idiots? So new that they still need to use notes about hand ranking? Is Hero's table image so full of shit that second pair is often good enough? Are the villains so sophisticated that they think three levels deep? Skilled villains make me tremble in my boots.

Not knowing who we are dealing with, my bias is to find a fold. I need to know that the other deep stacked player in the hand is either a chip spewing LAG or that the same player is able to make a fancy play of his own to isolate a chip spewing idiot in the small blind. The deep stacked villain isn't bluffing. He knows he is 100% going to show down with SB. To be sure, there are many players I would happily target in this situation and plenty of villains I snap fold against.

I vote fold awaiting specific villain information that might change my mind -=- DrStrange

PS and as for the earlier decisions:

Preflop - QTs is a speculative hand. It thrives on sky high SPRs. Raising by definition lowers the SPR. Maybe I could find a playful raise if Hero held the button, but even that early in the hand I think Hero is making a mistake. limp > raise ~= fold.

Flop - Hero gets exactly the kind of "good" flop he should fear. top pair, weak kicker. It is notable that Hero never mentions if he holds a back door flush draw. I think hero has good reason to fold right now, the RIO problems are huge. What hand range do we think SB has that can be good vs TP/WK? I need a huge idiot villain for continuing to be proper. And I hope hero puked a bit when yet a third player entered the hand, deep stacked no less. Fold >> call >> raise.

Turn - Hero thinks he got lucky and spiked a three outer. Maybe he did get lucky? Can we put any villain on Q7, Q2 or 72? How about AA/KK/AQ/KQ/QJ? I think hero should be fearful but I can't find a fold just yet with top two pair. Call vs raise is close but folding is not on my menu.

Turn after all the fireworks - If Hero is smelling burning flesh, it is likely his ass. Maybe hero could get excited vs bad villains. That would be the best case. But competent or better villains are a big problem. Special case if the SB is a known donator and the other villain is angling to be the beneficiary. Not knowing better I think fold is best. Fold >>>>> raise ~= call.

 

[Josh Kifer]

So the way id see it, your ahead right now or behind a set of 2s. I would call to see another card, it's either going to help you, or do nothing. Raising would be my move if I knew the players, I'd call and see the action if I'm just tossing crap against a wall.

 

[gopherblue]

Maybe I should let the super-nit who was actually in the hand take over? Whaddya say?

 

[Kain8]

Maybe I should let the super-nit who was actually in the hand take over? Whaddya say?

DUN DUN DUN!!!!

 

[Esection]

It mostly depends on what type of player the villain behind you is.

What hands does he call on the flop that improve on the turn?
- 98, J9, T7, QT, TT

98 and J9 would be floating rather light. QT and TT seem unlikely given you block those combos and TT probably 3bets preflop.

Seems like villain's turn value raising range is 77 and 22, which is quite narrow. If villain is a nit, fold. If villain is a nit that occasionally gets out of line and uses their image to bluff, you could consider calling, even though your equity against the range of only [77,22] is 9%.

The hand doesn't make a lot of sense because villain behind you's value range is so narrow. I don't think you need to worry about the villain donking into you.

 

[Random Phish]

So I was the hero in the hand. Gopher did a nice write up for me. Only correction is that I had about $900 to start the hand.
A couple people asked about reads and player profiles. I was at the table for only about an hour and didn’t recognize either of the villains.
SB: mid-late 30’s, had been active but only time I saw him make it to show down he had a strong hand.
Other Villian was probably mid 50’s. I didn’t see how he acquired his stack. Was less active than some at the table, but take that with a grain of salt as the table in general was fairly active with many positions button straddling.
Dr Strange, enjoyed reading your essay.
I will say folding Q10s from mid position in this game is giving away way too much value. Yes, you will be behind much of the time and need to be able to fold sometimes. It’s a cash game and I want my range to be more than AK+.

Ready for the results or does any of this change your answers?

 

[Jimulacrum]

I will say folding Q10s from mid position in this game is giving away way too much value. Yes, you will be behind much of the time and need to be able to fold sometimes. It’s a cash game and I want my range to be more than AK+.

Raising with QT (or 67s, or whatever other speculative/deception/range-balancing hand) is a situational play. Sometimes the game has such a texture that you can get your preflop LAG on very profitably, especially if there are easy-to-control players out there. It's a little more iffy in MP than in LP, but I'm a big proponent of not being a TAG all the time. Too predictable, and you leave a lot of money on certain soft tables in the name of safety.

Ready for the results or does any of this change your answers?

Given player profiles, I'm leaning heavily toward fold. One player who is merely "active" and another who seems tight relative to table texture do not together equal enough maniac for me to confidently put so many more chips in the pot here. It's not an easy fold, though, and I'll have my doubts until I see a set tabled.

 

[colter ripton]

I think I call the turn. The action is capped because the 55 dollar raise does not re open the action after a 100 dollar raise. In a 1-2 game this villian could have a set of could be making the same play with a kq or aq or possibly even something like 10 7.

I'm planning on checking the river and possibly calling a 200ish or below river bet. If he jams I re evaluate.

In these 1-2 games people might surprise you with what they raise for value. Given that we have flatted twice I think it is very possible that the 2nd villian called behind with a 7 on the flop and also hit 2 pair on the turn. He could have also called behind with a big Q on the flop and is now raising with it.

With a known tight villian behind I could find a fold, but with an unknown in a 1-2 I think I probably call.

 

[UKS]

This is where I leak. I would call and be behind to the bigger stack of the two.

Hang on, did someone donk lead out? That changes the dynamics a little. You are ahead of the dock lead but behind the other guy.

I still call and lose.

 

[Pesto628]

I agree that one of them probably has a set without any player specific reads, so I would fold. Again, player specifics is hugely important, but with no real reads in a multi way pot, both villains rep really strong hands

 

[Random Phish]

In these 1-2 games people might surprise you with what they raise for value. Given that we have flatted twice I think it is very possible that the 2nd villian called behind with a 7 on the flop and also hit 2 pair on the turn. He could have also called behind with a big Q on the flop and is now raising with it.

This as it turns out is spot on.

Kain8 pretty well captured my thoughts exactly at the time. Many in this thread gave a similar analysis; I’m probably behind the value raising range of villain 2, so he must have flopped a set of 7’s or 2’s and with such a dry flop there was no need to rush to get the money in.

My live read was he looked very comfortable and when I asked how much he had behind or if could move his arm so I could see his stack, there was an air of confidence in his response that seemed to indicate he felt like he had the best hand.

I didn’t really consider just calling the $55 as after I had tanked for 3-4 minutes, I expected I’d be seeing a big river bet. I was only calling the $55 if I was prepared to call a river shove. FWIW villian 2 said after the hand he would have shoved the river. (Easy to say once the hand’s dead)

I also let it creep into my consciousness how well I had been running, that it’s not sustainable, this is where it’s going to even out, how if I call and lose I’ll be much more upset than if I let it go and see I had the best hand. I was also planning on only staying another 15-20 minutes, so if I lost I would have had a break even night instead of +$600 one. I’m usually able to block those kinds of thoughts out, but in this case they were leaking in.

What I didn’t really consider at the time and most people here didn’t talk about was what my hand looked like to him. I raised pre, called a 60%ish donk bet on a Q high flop, and called the 40%ish turn bet with a relatively safe off-suit 10. My hand looks a lot like AQ, KQ or QJ. So a 1 pair good kicker hand. SB probably looks similar and TBH, I would probably play the hand the same way I did with those holdings.

So if it’s not obvious already, I nitted up and let it go. Villian 2 turned over 10-7 for two pair and SB turned over AQ for top top.

I kicked myself for being a nit and not raising the turn.

Thanks guys for the comments and thoughts.

 

[gopherblue]

Luckbox nit.

 

[Steve Birrer]

I don't think your fold was being a nit at all. If we could all play with hindsight we'd be freaking millionaires. I was with the others. I was folding since I didn't see my two pair as the winning hand.

The ultimate answer doesn't mean the play was wrong. More times than not, given this scenario, you don't have the best hand.

 

[JustinInMN]

If small blind folds I think hero is shoving over the button all day. Problem is sb moved in and for so little button can't ever fold. Sb is never bluffing, and really couldn't be drawing with no flushes and straight draws needing the turn card.

So the question is can sb ever do this with one pair or a lesser two pair. Holding qt we block a lot of the "reasonable" two pairs, and sb can surely play 22 or 77 this way. Otoh, this is at worst the 4th best hand we show up with here (assuming we also take this line with 77, TT, QQ)

But Sb is NEVER bluffing and never drawing either. We're hoping for T7 or an overplayed Qx if we call, and we still have button to act who may be bluffing but may also have something. As I was hinting above I think it's a call only if you think sb can overplay a Q here, otherwise he's never bluffing and all you beat is t7, maybe q7 and we partially block those.

 

[JustinInMN]

Okay just saw the result post, well I guess it was a lesser two pair and an overplayed queen. Next time you will know to call, but I get why that is a tough spot in the moment.

 

[DRacula]

If your desire to not lose money is greater than your desire to win money, you fold. And vice verse.


Personally, if I have no history or information about my villains I tend to call more often. Given the action, I would not be surprised to see a set of twos. However, it is also possible my opponents are over playing their hands (AQ, worse two pair), and don’t understand relative hand strength.

Many in this forum would disagree with me and err on the side of caution. There is nothing wrong with that.
You should decide whether or not you want to call/fold in these spots and be consistent.

 

[glom]

Just get it all in. Top 2 vs bottom set is a classic cooler. Villain behind could have a hand like KQ and AQ or even T7 as easily as a set.

I feel pretty good about my read now that we’ve seen the result.

 

[DRacula]

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