Casino 1/2 NLHE - Preflop - KK vs a short AIPF and call (1 Viewer)

[btbmason]

This feels pretty simple, but it never hurts to check a line on what may seem to be a simple spot.

1/2 NLHE Hollywood Toledo, I have $330 and cover all villains in the hand. My image is most likely somewhere between tight/passive and tight/aggressive. I've given up a few flops OOP vs multiple villains after raising pre, and have only shown down premium hands. I open to $10 UTG at a full 9-handed table (standard has been anywhere from $6 to $13, but I open a little bigger in EP) with .

MP (loose/aggressive, has flatted my opens in the past with hands like 47o, K6o, and KK) flats with about $70 behind
BTN (suuuuuper tight/passive player) shoves in his last $42
BB (has been playing pretty well, a little on the loose side but aggressive in position) hems and haws, and slides out a call with about $200 behind.

All other hands have folded, so 4 total people in the pot so far, my initial open of $10, 1 caller at $10, 1 all-in at $42, and a caller of the $42 (+$1 SB = $105 total in the pot). Action is now on me, and I can re-open the betting.

I am considering a fold 0% of the time. I am aware that BB could be playing AA in this manner, especially against a tight hero who is likely to have a premium hand here, but in a casino 1/2 NLHE game a fold is not in my arsenal.

So essentially what I am looking for here, do I flat the call and see a flop vs 2 villains that I cover and play a flop in MP between them, make a small raise to commit MP and see if BB comes along for a little more money, or just cram it all in and hope one of the other 2 calls for their full stacks/worst case end up HU for a pot of about $150?

All feedback (positive or negative) is appreciated and welcomed, thanks!

 

[Kain8]

Shove shove shove shove shove and then shove some more.

 

[Rhodeman77]

Jam seems pretty straightforward.

If you want to get tricky to try to bring BB along raise to $100 total. You have to shove any flop so you would be giving him good odds to call with a AQ or JJ type of hand.

I prefer to jam here though. I don't want someone with an A hitting there 30% equity without paying for it.

 

[AWenger]

BTN (suuuuuper tight/passive player) shoves in his last $42
BB (has been playing pretty well, a little on the loose side but aggressive in position) hems and haws, and slides out a call with about $200 behind.

I am considering a fold 0% of the time.

Given these two things above, the BB has put 1/5 ($42) of his stack ($242, now $200 behind) into the middle already. No point in getting cute and raising the minimum here, and inviting everyone to call.

I haven't run the poker hand math, but KK versus 3 opponents AIPF may not be a favorite overall, and you might actually want people to fold, so you can take a $105 pot w/ KK as an 80% favorite heads-up, instead of KK at 50% or 60% 4-ways. If BB wants to come along (or has AA), just raise to $250 to put him all in.

 

[JoseRijo]

I haven't run the poker hand math, but KK versus 3 opponents AIPF may not be a favorite overall, and you might actually want people to fold...

Let's say you have $100 nine-handed and everyone covers you. You have aces UTG and for whatever reason you open shove. How many callers do you want?

 

[mummel]

My initial reaction was to call, but after reading the posts above, I agree, jam, particularly since you're OOP.

 

[detroitdad]

Shove shove shove shove shove and then shove some more.

Jam seems pretty straightforward.

If you want to get tricky to try to bring BB along raise to $100 total. You have to shove any flop so you would be giving him good odds to call with a AQ or JJ type of hand.

I prefer to jam here though. I don't want someone with an A hitting there 30% equity without paying for it.

I agree. I'm shoving in this spot every day.

 

[upNdown]

I'd be inclined to make it $140, and I'd really like to hear why I shouldn't.

 

[SixSpeedFury]

 

[MegaTon44]

View attachment 84746

Ah, the rarely used "jelly" option. This is where you stand up and then splash the pot like Teddy KGB, one chip at a time, all while saying "I.....bet it......all"

 

[btbmason]

Ah, the rarely used "jelly" option. This is where you stand up and then splash the pot like Teddy KGB, one chip at a time, all while saying "I.....bet it......all"

I did actually consider that, but didn't want to get called for a string raise if I dropped some of the chips in prior to completing the sentence.

Congrats on the orange name!

 

[detroitdad]

I'd be inclined to make it $140, and I'd really like to hear why I shouldn't.

What is your goal with the 140 bet? If you want to keep everyone in then sure. I'd rather shove it all in and see what happens. I would much rather play K/K's heads up than in a multi way pot.

 

[AWenger]

Let's say you have $100 nine-handed and everyone covers you. You have aces UTG and for whatever reason you open shove. How many callers do you want?

I don't know. I didn't sign up for that question when I replied to this thread.

As for the OP's situation, if the 2 remaining players both call a shove, I would still be happy to be in that spot with KK. I'd also gladly take that spot with if the two players behind folded. Either way, KK should raise all in in that spot, be happy with results regardless, if 2 folds, 1 fold & 1 call, or 2 calls.

Out of curiosity, I ran a few calculations pre-flop 4-handed -- KK is only between 45% to 56% equity versus these types of hands below, even if no one has an Ace in their hand. (Note: if the percentages don't total 100%, it's due to rounding or ties.) This also ignores the potential side pot versus just one of the hands in the OP.

KK v AQs v 99 v JJ
45%-23%-14%-18%

KK v AQs v 99 v AT
56%-17%-18%-7%

KK v KQs v 99 v AJ
49%-9%-18%-23%

KK v KQs v 99 v 77
54%-11%-19%-15%​

 

[Bradcorn]

$100 more. I'm trying to get every available dollar in the pot.

 

[upNdown]

My goal is that i'm thinking the all-in guy might have AK, And if an ace comes out, he's not paying me. An The all-in might scare the other two off - the hundred on top might only scare off one of them.
That's my thinking.

 

[detroitdad]

My goal is that i'm thinking the all-in guy might have AK, And if an ace comes out, he's not paying me. An The all-in might scare the other two off - the hundred on top might only scare off one of them.
That's my thinking.

makes sense. FWIW, I never ever said I was any good at this game lol. I'm still an advocate of shoving in this spot. Multi way pots scare me. If he calls great, if not, I'm just as happy.

 

[upNdown]

makes sense. FWIW, I never ever said I was any good at this game lol. I'm still an advocate of shoving in this spot. Multi way pots scare me. If he calls great, if not, I'm just as happy.

I have a lot to learn too, that's why I'm asking for feedback on my feedback.

 

[bergs]

Let's say you have $100 nine-handed and everyone covers you. You have aces UTG and for whatever reason you open shove. How many callers do you want?

Just you, buddy. Just you.

 

[btbmason]

I appreciate all of the input thus far. This is my first strategy post here so I'm not sure how others typically time their threads, but I'll keep it without any results/my rationale until later on tonight in case anyone else wants to weigh in. Or if anybody thinks it needs a longer timeframe, I can postpone until tomorrow. It's not the most complex situation, but I always love seeing different opinions!

 

[kirchhausen]

 

[12thMan]

I'm jammin I'm jammin I'm jammin I'm jammin and I hope you like jamming too.

 

[mummel]

Com'on post the results!!

 

[btbmason]

Results:

I shoved. The BB took a decent amount of time to flat call the original shove so I was running through my options while he was thinking. I wanted to act quickly after his decision. I feel like most people with a huge hand there act slower to make it seem like they have a decision and try to influence others to call with weaker hands.

MP thought for about 3 seconds and folded. BTN stood up and put on his jacket like we were at the FT of a televised event and he realized he got it in really bad.

Someone commented to the BB, "That's what you didn't want to happen huh?" and the BB replied, "Or he just fell into my trap" which gave me slight pause. The fact he didn't insta-call made that go away pretty quickly though. BB thought for a solid minute or two and said, "I'm just gonna fold and walk away from the table, nobody tell me whether or not a 10 comes out, I don't wanna know."

I'm assuming he had TT because I'm a master detective like that.

The BTN had JJ. MP thought we were playing Uno and said he folded a blue reverse and a green 3. Ok that part didn't really happen but he was calling me light all night long.

 

[Phobos223]

and then???

 

[btbmason]

and then???

Haha, not quite. The actual result of the hand wasn't important in influencing my thinking about the hand. Even if BTN had AA, there is no way I am avoiding having enough chips to cover him in the pot.

The BB really seemed like he wanted to call. When I thought back on it I thought maybe I missed something. The flop was 665, which would be a flop where all of my chips would have gone in anyway if I had flatted or raised small. TT would have had a decision to make on that flop too.

The pot was already of a decent size, and there would be dead money in there if I pushed MP and BB out, so I was comfortable with the pot size vs 1 opponent. Also there are a few Ax combinations in both MP and BB's range, and if an A flops then I'm in a really bad spot. I realize this isn't the ideal reason to shove because the A won't hit every flop, but that was sadly probably my biggest reason to shove (not giving odds for either MP or BB to come in and hit with a worse hand.) I also think BB does have some hands in his range where he calls the shove, but probably limited to JJ+, AK and JJ may be a stretch.

 

[AlPresidente]

Let's say you have $100 nine-handed and everyone covers you. You have aces UTG and for whatever reason you open shove. How many callers do you want?

Everyone calling makes you the most money on average & it isn't close.

 

[upNdown]

Everyone calling makes you the most money on average & it isn't close.

I have a hard time believing that. Do you have some statistical backup for that, or is this based on experience or guesstimation or what?
Are you assuming 8 random players who all call, regardless of what they hold, or 8 other villains who have reason to call?
Do you assume the hand plays out sanely from there, or are we just running the flop, turn, and River for everybody?
I just can't believe aces would hold up very often against 8 other random pockets.

 

[MrBo]

I agree with the shove here, but would add the reasoning that shoving in this spot could look weaker than putting in a smallish raise that still commits you to stacking off with BB. BB could interpret it as a move to isolate the BTN with a decent hand and scoop up the dead money and call off wider. A small re-raise may lead him to sniff out the trap and get away.

 

[JoseRijo]

I have a hard time believing that. Do you have some statistical backup for that, or is this based on experience or guesstimation or what?
Are you assuming 8 random players who all call, regardless of what they hold, or 8 other villains who have reason to call?
Do you assume the hand plays out sanely from there, or are we just running the flop, turn, and River for everybody?
I just can't believe aces would hold up very often against 8 other random pockets.

One more try...

Same scenario - 9 players, $100 each, you are UTG. All cards are dealt and before anyone looks, the other eight players agree to an all-in flip. You would take that bet, because your EV is zero. 8/9 of the the time you win $100 and 1/9 of time you win $800. Everyone else has the same chance of winning.

Now you look at your cards. Do you think there are hands that would make your EV better or worse? Of course! Otherwise poker wouldn't be very much fun. What hand would you most want to have in this scenario? It's not J5o.

In this scenario, I think AA wins about 30% of the time. 30% * 800 = $240. If you have one caller and are an 85% favorite, .85 * 100 = $85. Which would you rather have?

 

[upNdown]

Of course you're right, if AA actually wins against 8 random hands 30% of the time - but that's my question - does it?