Casino 1/2 NLHE - Preflop - KK vs a short AIPF and call (2 Viewers)

[AlPresidente]

I have a hard time believing that. Do you have some statistical backup for that, or is this based on experience or guesstimation or what?
Are you assuming 8 random players who all call, regardless of what they hold, or 8 other villains who have reason to call?
Do you assume the hand plays out sanely from there, or are we just running the flop, turn, and River for everybody?
I just can't believe aces would hold up very often against 8 other random pockets.

Original post states we're all-in pre-flop.
vs 1 opponent (assuming random hands, but it makes little difference), we win 85% = +$85 on average
vs 2 it's 73% = +$147
vs 3: 64% ->+ $191
vs 4: 56% ->+$224
vs 5: 49% -> +$245
which is as many as my simulator allows...each opponent is making a decision profitable to you by calling & the bigger pots when you win against more opponents more than compensates for you winning less often.

 

[ChaosRock]

Of course you're right, if AA actually wins against 8 random hands 30% of the time - but that's my question - does it?

Against 8 random hands AA is a 34.6% favorite.

 

[Burke]

Of course you're right, if AA actually wins against 8 random hands 30% of the time - but that's my question - does it?

I think it's more like 35% against random hands. It certainly wins more than 11% of the time which is 1/9.....which is roughly the same expected value as one caller, 85% favorite in the example shown by @JoseRijo

Edit: whoops partly repeating post above

 

[upNdown]

Okay, thanks guys!

 

[AlPresidente]

Not my simulation, but vs 8 opponents, our EV is +$277

 

[upNdown]

So to be clear, if I have aces, it's not really about the cards - the only reason I'd want people to fold preflop is if i think they can out-play me?
This is a good lesson.
I can't believe I've been operating with such a misunderstanding of the odds on that hand.