Daniel Negreanu vs Doug Polk (1 Viewer)

Who will win the heads up match?

  • Total voters
    187
Eriks said:
I give Daniel huge credit for agreeing to do this challenge and I think he puts up a decent fight but the results of the poll is making me laugh. Most of you actually think Daniel is going to win?

Don’t get me wrong, I would love it if he did but c’mon
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Agreed. Massive credit to him. He also took on the challenge because he could get decent odds on himself so it was a calculated gamble. I think the poll is reflective of how little people know about Doug Polk at his peak when he was arguably the best HUNL going. Daniel's live success is not disputed but online poker is a whole other beast. Some of the skills that make Daniel a great live player aren't available to him online and IMO that is starting to show with where the match is heading.
 
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I watched a few of DNegs latest hand commentaries.

I understand trying to be a little funny and not give away strategy. What he is giving away is that he is tired of getting his ass kicked and doesn't have any answers. I can believe he's not running great, but his mental condition is not good and he's got a long way to go. Feels like it could get really ugly for him.
 
Meddler2 said:
Can DGen quit before 12,500 hands or would he be penalized?
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I don't have the specifics, but he did say on the latest DAT poker podcast that there's no way he's not going the full 25,000....so I think he'll easily make the 12,500 mark either way. Maybe a buyout later, but I doubt it. They both have side bets on this as well, so there's reason to keep going, not just the match itself....
 
Take all of the charts away form Polk and sit them back at a live table and play heads up would be a better indicator of who is better. Online is ok but I still don't think it is like live play.
 
I saw all sessions so far and i think Daniel plays way to sneaky in spots where he doesn´t have to. He takes away the chance for Doug to brainfart more often. But to be fair Daniel ran so bad until the last session. With each losing session the confidence goes down....
 
I remember voting in this thread but forgot to check back.

It still amazes me people think daniel had an edge at the beginning of this. I'm sure dnegs saying he's definitely going the full 25k hands has Doug salivating. Online NLH heads up is Doug's bread and butter. Not sure how much Daniel has played, but based on his recent blow ups, my guess is not much. Not many people can come back from a deficit like this. Phil Galfond had an absurd come back when he started his online challenge, but he's also a different breed of player. Dnegs might be a better poker player, but I'm afraid he's out matched playing doug online heads up. When Doug offered the challenge, dnegs should have said "no thanks, you have the advantage. I'll be here admiring my wall of accomplishments." got em hook, line, sinker.

When the poker boom happened I remember really liking dnegs. The quirky young gun who could read your soul and let bad beats roll off his shoulder. But now over the years he's become insufferable. He's this douchey tanned up ball of bi-polar. I don't know when it started, but for me when he was posting stuff on Instagram about wanting to beat people in the gym for how they look and taking flexing pictures of non-existent muscle, I'm out. Then he just got worse from there. I hope Doug takes him to the cleaners :ROFL: :ROFLMAO:
 
some interesting answers from doug here: https://upswingpoker.com/doug-polk-...f277cefdef81bcc0558ed5d4c28cbfab114022b1ec50d

most interesting is this one I think:

6. Do you think Daniel has a chance to beat you still?

Of course he has a chance. The question is it like 0.1% or 1% or 10%.

So far my win-rate has been 21 bb/100 or so, but let’s calculate using my all-in EV of 14 bb/100 because that is probably more fair. Also assuming a ~150 standard deviation and ~18k hands.

If he is losing at 14 bb/100 he is about 4% to win more than 17 buy-ins [enough to take the lead at the time of writing] by the end of the challenge. So that’s 25:1.

Now we can make some assumptions either way. Let’s say he improves and has been running bad situationally…

(I don’t think that he has been btw. He has certainly run bad in all-in pots. I think it’s fair to credit those back to him in an EV calculation, but situationally there isn’t a good way for us to know who has been running better. But for the sake of argument let’s go with that.)

… and let’s say he only loses at 8 theoretical bb/100 for the rest of the challenge. Then his chance to win goes up to 10-15% or so.

But it could also go the other way, let’s say we are underestimating his loss-rate and its closer to 20, He is probably a 100:1 dog to win. Lot of assumptions getting thrown around.

If I had to guess, I would say he is probably gonna on average lose at about 10-15 theoretical bb/100 over the rest of the challenge. If he keeps getting better and eliminates some of the bigger mistakes maybe he gets that down to 5-10. Time will tell. Frankly, it’s a lot of fucking random ass guessing.

If I had to predict, if this goes the full 25k hands I would say I expect to win ~$1,400,000
Click to expand...
 
I wish I could be so cavalier as to estimate my winnings from a single event (series) as "roughly 1.4 million".

Then again, I wish I could roughly estimate my lifetime earnings as "roughly 1.4 million". :(
 
I also realized too late this is just a planned gimmick where Polk wins. It boosts online poker during all
this hocus pocus, and will make his poker school BANK.
 
The real truth spends a lot of time hiding out in Hayfork.
 

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