Flop three of a kind with me - 20k guaranteed (1 Viewer)

[JustinInMN]

So admittedly I have some time to think about this and I may not have thought of this in hero's shoes in the moment, but I am now thinking this is a pretty clear river fold unless villian is pretty bluffy.

The key to me is the preflop call. If hero is calling with 5h-4h, it stands to reason that hero is also calling with all connectors in clubs as well. So as played from villian's perspective hero can have basically all the clubs except for Ax (as villan we block that) and hero can certainly flat the flop with all these clubs.

The turn makes sense as well to villian. Even if villian could see a flush in hero's hand he has 10-11 outs to improve to the nut flush or better.


If you think of the river sizing in these terms, it seems like villian is trying to get paid by a flush, meaning he's representing at minimum the nut flush. We are also pretty content to put TT and AA in his range. On the other hand three fives with a four kicker is actually pretty low in our possible range considering if we have 5h-4h, we can have about all the flushes. We can pick better bluff catching candidates unless we think villian is spewy-bluffing. (Ie turning AK, AQ, kk, qq, JJ, hands into a bluff, but this is probably not an assumption I would put on a new guy either.)

 

[JustinInMN]

But I guess that's the paradox, if we are folding three 5s here, villian then has incentive to do just this.

(Ie turning AK, AQ, kk, qq, JJ, hands into a bluff, but this is probably not an assumption I would put on a new guy either.)

 

[Pesto628]

But I guess that's the paradox, if we are folding three 5s here, villian then has incentive to do just this.

I like to rule out bluffs here because this is a pretty bad series of lines to take if villain is bluffing (bet, check/call, overbet). If he is bluffing, it’s a really really really bad bluff imho

 

[PlaidDragon]

1) Blinds are presently 100/200 with no ante.
2) stacks are roughly 40k and we have no history with villain.
3) Villain raises UTG to 600
4) MP calls 600
5) Hero (button) calls 600 with
6) Pot = 2100
7) Flop
8) Villian bets 800
9) MP Folds

Hero ?

That there's no history doesn't help but he raised utg so I'm putting his range on an 8+ pair or A/8+. I'd say that flop missed him and he's continuation betting.

Pure call.

10) Turn
11) Pot: 3,700
12) Villain checks

A blank for you. The nightmare scenario is that he has 10/10. If I hit a set of 10's on the turn like that I'd slow play the hell out of it, sooo...

Check.

13) Hero bets 2,000
14) Villain calls 2,000
15) pot: 7,700
16) River:
17) Villain fires an 11,000 overbet of the pot

Ugh.

The river likely helped him; but how much. I'm leaning toward that he had only one A. However, if he has a set of aces, the size of his bet really does not illicit a call, so I don't think we're looking at that.

There is no straight but what needs to be addressed are the three clubs on the board. Has he been riding or the whole time? This might be more likely given his slowdown/call on the turn.

Again though... if he'd hit the flush, a bet of roughly 1/3 your stacks is suspect. If you lose, you're still in it and just have to work to recover.

I call his 11k, willing to take the hit in case he hit a monster.

In this instance I failed to heed that warning and sigh-called, and he flipped over .

The word "ouch" comes to mind here. I'd be in the same boat as you.