Flopped set vs. lots of straight possibilities in PLO tourney (1 Viewer)

[snooptodd]

Playing PCF weekly PLO tourney, down to six of eight players, top two pay. Still very early, sitting in third with 25k on 20k starting stack, blinds at 60-120.

UTG +1 raises to 360, folded to Hero on the button, who holds KKJ6 (no suits). Hero makes it 600 (min raise). SB makes it 2,280 to go UG calls. Hero thinks SB has AA?? but decides to call with position.

Flop is Ks-Jc-Td.

SB bets pot (6,960), UTG folds, action on Hero. SB has 9,100 behind. Raise, fold or call?

 

[DrStrange]

I think it is a little late for Hero to be asking questions, Hero is basically set mining with poor odds . . . .

Hero could fold and still have room to play with an "M" of 50. I could be swayed if Hero thinks he is much better than the field.

Hero is risking 9,100 to win 25,160. That implied Hero needs 36% equity, except it is for Hero's tournament life. SB absolutely could have AAQx. I would certainly put a hand like that solidly in Villain's range.

This is a close decision for me. I have no villain read, no villain stack depth, no idea of Hero's table image an no idea of Hero's relative skill vs the table.

<shrug> Toss a mental coin and it comes up fold -=- DrStrange

 

[DrStrange]

I was thinking Hero was at risk rather than villain. That leaves a lot more chance of air in villain's range and the "cost" to hero is not disastrous. It is still close, but I'd call.

DrStrange

 

[Anthony Martino]

Playing PCF weekly PLO tourney, down to six of eight players, top two pay. Still very early, sitting in third with 25k on 20k starting stack, blinds at 60-120.

UTG +1 raises to 360, folded to Hero on the button, who holds KKJ6 (no suits). Hero makes it 600 (min raise).

FOLD

SB makes it 2,280 to go UG calls. Hero thinks SB has AA?? but decides to call with position.

FOLD


Flop is Ks-Jc-Td.

SB bets pot (6,960), UTG folds, action on Hero. SB has 9,100 behind. Raise, fold or call?

Alright, so Fold pre at both opportunities. The 6 dangler is killing your hand strength and possibilities, plus you have no suits. As played I think you're fine to re-pot heads-up against the villain here. You could be ahead, and if you're not you still have outs

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

I agree with folding pre, that is not a premium starting hand in PLO. Not very connected with no suits, it's not worth a three-bet and certainly not worth calling a four-bet. Probably get it in on this flop, though. Sure hero could have AQ, but he doesn't have to, and you're ahead of everything else. And if he does have AQ the board can always pair.

 

[snooptodd]

I'm never folding that hand preflop on the button to a single raise 6-handed with stacks that deep. Of course, that may be why I'm not a professional poker player. I agree the 3-bet was a bad decision, as was calling the 4-bet -- part of the reason I didn't ask about those is because I knew what the answer was going to be.

That said, I know you always have to be super aware of the nuts in PLO, so I took awhile to decide what to do with this one.

Eventually I shipped it all in, hoping I was ahead but knowing I'd have outs if I wasn't.

Villain called with AAJx and hit a Q on the turn for Broadway.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

well if its any consolation, he played it even worse than you did

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Ok so I know you want to talk about the post flop decision, and I thought you made the right one. But I'd like to stress how people tend to over-value non-connecting big pocket pairs pre flop in PLO. I went to propokertools.com, which is an excellent site for simulating poker hands in a wide variety of games, and plugged in your hand vs. a top 10% hand (and a top 20% hand). Your hand is a 56-44 dog vs. a top 10% hand (which is what an utg+1 raise is representing) and only a 51-49 favorite against a top 20% hand. Against a top 5% hand you are a 67-33 dog (I think SB cold 4 betting has at least this).

Basically your hand is the PLO equivalent of pocket sevens in hold 'em. Would you three bet an utg+1 raise with sevens, or call a cold four bet with them? Maybe, I guess it is situationally dependent, but sometimes its just ok to just call pre and see what happens on the flop with those type of hands (or let them go if you get four bet).

 

[snooptodd]

Ok so I know you want to talk about the post flop decision, and I thought you made the right one. But I'd like to stress how people tend to over-value non-connecting big pocket pairs pre flop in PLO. I went to propokertools.com, which is an excellent site for simulating poker hands in a wide variety of games, and plugged in your hand vs. a top 10% hand (and a top 20% hand). Your hand is a 56-44 dog vs. a top 10% hand (which is what an utg+1 raise is representing) and only a 51-49 favorite against a top 20% hand. Against a top 5% hand you are a 67-33 dog (I think SB cold 4 betting has at least this).

Basically your hand is the PLO equivalent of pocket sevens in hold 'em. Would you three bet an utg+1 raise with sevens, or call a cold four bet with them? Maybe, I guess it is situationally dependent, but sometimes its just ok to just call pre and see what happens on the flop with those type of hands (or let them go if you get four bet).

Yeah, absolutely my preflop line was not good. But position is so important, I would argue even moreso in PLO than in NLH, that I don't think anyone should fold this hand PF to an opening raise, especially 6-handed. And the fact that the original raiser called the 4-bet played a pretty big role in my decision to call PF as well, as it really bloated the pot and changed the pot odds. Obviously I'm putting myself in a situation where I have to fold on the flop unless I smash it, but I think the correct play here would have been to call the raise, and given the fact that the original raiser called the 4-bet, it's probably safe to assume he'd call the SB's 3-bet, and I would have called a 3-bet (having already called a raise) in position with this hand too.

Now if the original raiser 4-bets the SB's 3-bet, it becomes much easier to let go.

 

[Ronoh]

Meh, stacks are so big early in this game there is almost never a reason to fold preflop.

As it stands you are in for 600, it's 1600 more to call, you know SB has AAxx and that he is going to pot the flop for 7K. With that much info I am never folding a 4bet that amounts to 7% of my stack with anything (other than those nasty pocket trips).

Blows my mind all the guys who play tight early in these... you have 20K why are you folding for 30???

 

[DrStrange]

Reverse Implied Odds -=- DrStrange

 

[snooptodd]

Meh, stacks are so big early in this game there is almost never a reason to fold preflop.

As it stands you are in for 600, it's 1600 more to call, you know SB has AAxx and that he is going to pot the flop for 7K. With that much info I am never folding a 4bet that amounts to 7% of my stack with anything (other than those nasty pocket trips).

Blows my mind all the guys who play tight early in these... you have 20K why are you folding for 30???

View attachment 19558

I agree and again emphasize position. That said, your graphic is skewed a bit by the fact that probably half of the hands you played in this tourney were heads up.

 

[Ronoh]

I agree and again emphasize position. That said, your graphic is skewed a bit by the fact that probably half of the hands you played in this tourney were heads up.

I failed to see the flop a grand total of 16 times throughout the tournament, good chance I was at 100% until the final four. I'm pretty sure my numbers aren't a whole lot different at the average Meat-Up heheh

 

[Ronoh]

Yes I'm sure it can be seen as (and in reality, IS) a major hole in my game but I just don't care. I did the whole "math thing" for many, many years. Yes, it works. And is boring as all hell. I want to play

 

[krafticus]

What happens next?