Getting close to the bubble with black 66. (2 Viewers)

[Mr Tree]

I don't want to make any comments before more people have the chance to posts but I'm gonna play devil's advocate here without disclosing much: I assume you're also c-betting large, a good percentage of the time if you missed the flop? There's certainly advantages of betting large here but you're also gonna be paying a lot on your bluffs (if you're balancing your betting size). Also, I don't see a Ax or KK raising the flop, personally. At least not raising a UTG+1 opener with an A on the flop. I'm not saying that wouldn't happen ever but I don't think it's often enough. I could be wrong though.

In position I often will just call an early position raise from a player I think is solid with a hand like AK. That is one ace hand with the flush draw that I do think I would raise an early position bet with on this flop. Pretty much any other ace I’m going to flat here and evaluate how your respond on the turn.

 

[ChaosRock]

In position I often will just call an early position raise from a player I think is solid with a hand like AK. That is one ace hand with the flush draw that I do think I would raise an early position bet with on this flop. Pretty much any other ace I’m going to flat here and evaluate how your respond on the turn.

Again playing devil's advocate, Tom: why would you raise your AK(paired)+NFD on a non- straight draw board? I understand in this particular case there's no FD + the A. Unless you mean a back-door NFD with the .

 

[Mr Tree]

Again playing devil's advocate, Tom: why would you raise your AK(paired)+NFD on a non- straight draw board? I understand in this particular case there's no FD + the A. Unless you mean a back-door NFD with the .

I was just saying AK without the NFD. I want my opponents to pay to see the next card if they have hearts.

Edit. I think I see what you misread. I was saying I wanted to bet with the flush draw out there (not with the flush draw)

 

[Gunnar]

I don't want to make any comments before more people have the chance to posts but I'm gonna play devil's advocate here without disclosing much: I assume you're also c-betting large, a good percentage of the time if you missed the flop? There's certainly advantages of betting large here but you're also gonna be paying a lot on your bluffs (if you're balancing your betting size). Also, I don't see an Ax or KK raising the flop, personally (although Hero would love that). At least not raising a UTG+1 opener with an A on the flop. I'm not saying that wouldn't happen ever but I don't think it's often enough. I could be wrong though.

Im betting that flop when missed 33% of the time.

If you bet 4bb
middle flats
And I have TPTK and position im putting it to 12B .
Then I get re-raised by sets and that is an easy fold, I get folds from flush draws.

 

[power13]

I don't want to make any comments before more people have the chance to posts but I'm gonna play devil's advocate here without disclosing much: I assume you're also c-betting large, a good percentage of the time if you missed the flop? There's certainly advantages of betting large here but you're also gonna be paying a lot on your bluffs (if you're balancing your betting size). Also, I don't see an Ax or KK raising the flop, personally (although Hero would love that). At least not raising a UTG+1 opener with an A on the flop. I'm not saying that wouldn't happen ever but I don't think it's often enough. I could be wrong though.

In a tournament I'm not worrying about balance early vs unknown opponents, especially at a new table. So in the situation you're describing I don't feel the need to cbet misses or cbet the same size with a bluff for balance. Nobody knows me yet so has no sizing tells. If I'm playing with players I have history with it's a different story.

 

[v1pe]

This is a good and a bad spot. Im always leaning for a bigger bet here. Why ?

Do we really want to get or stacks in and gamble that the heart will not come ? We are close to the bubble.
If we bet 4bb a strong ace can raise us as can KhKx. 8BB bet on the other hand should get a flat from those hands and push away flush draws.

Pot control to see the next card. If the turn is blank then it is both easier to bet the flush draw away and to get value from a strong ace.

We are betting for value so we actually want worse hands (FDs, AX, etc.) to call. Yeah, they get there sometimes, but more often than not they don't.

Plus, we expect to have some bluffs and semi-bluffs in our cbet range, and we want to have a static bet sizing.

 

[v1pe]

I was just saying AK without the NFD. I want my opponents to pay to see the next card if they have hearts.

Edit. I think I see what you misread. I was saying I wanted to bet with the flush draw out there (not with the flush draw)

I think you can raise your AK (except for maybe AKxh and AKss) here sometimes...but if we get 3bet it puts us in kind of a tough spot. If we get called it also narrows the PF raiser's range so we have to be aware of that if they continue.

I prefer just a flat to keep the PF raiser's bluffs in and also to pot control with a naked TPTK.

 

[Anthony Martino]

I don't think there's much time to waste here on the pre flop action. There were arguments made for all three options, weighted raise, limp and fold, on that order I believe. If someone missed the pre-flop action, they can always comment later on.

Well with pocket 6's here we're deep-stacked for this stage of the tournament. What matters now is how your table has been playing. If you limp in EP is it likely to be limped around or is someone going to raise?

If we raise, how frequently are people with position making isolation reraises or squeeze plays? We don't really have a hand we want to play for three bets out of position here, we want to see a flop cheaply.

Given the description of the field I think from early position this is probably a fold since we're usually going to be playing this hand OOP in a bloated pot against competent opponents. If the field was weaker and you could limp in and set mine I'm fine with it. I'd raise this in late position after it was folded to me.

Anyways, I open for 2.5BB. That was the size of pretty much 90% of openings, regardless of position and I saw no reason to deviate from that. CO calls and SB calls. Flop comes . Yep, flopped it. SB checks, action to Hero. Thoughts?

Pre-Flop (2.5BB)
Hero (80BB) opens for 2.5BB
CO (30BB) Calls
SB (85BB) Calls

Flop (9.5BB)
Hero (77.5BB) ?
CO (27.5BB)
SB (83BB) Checks

I like a bet of 6-7.5 bb's here. If you had raised pre with Ax you'd want to protect against flush and straight draws. The same holds true for your set here. Fortunately we have position on the SB who is the guy whose stack worries us the most, if the CO wants to play for stacks let's do it.

Now, if you think the CO is likely to shove if you bet something like 4-5.5 bb's then go that route and induce the action.

 

[Steve Birrer]

Bet the set. You got just about as good a flop as you could have except for the fact there are two hearts. So bet 2/3 pot or so to discourage a flush draw.

 

[ChaosRock]

Okay... So it's seems a consensus that the action here should be "bet". Betting size suggestions ranged from 4BB to over pot. Hero's thought process was to keep betting sizing at a baseline level just to be consistent with the many times he's firing this flop after missing it. Although I understand the comment someone made that betting size balance shouldn't matter much in large tourney, which I agree to some extent, Hero still has to play for a while in this table and his actions on this hand can affect actions in following hands. Also, when I say consistent betting it doesn't mean betting the same amount every time on every flop, it means betting about the same on the same "situation", which is different. There's flops that warrant a larger bet and flop that warrant a smaller bet (whether you have the good or are just bluffing), imo of course.

Anyways, Hero decides to bet a little over ½ pot, so 5BB. CO snap folds and SB calls without much of a reaction. Turn is a beautiful . Hero's just hoping SB has something like AJ and get paid, although AJ might be a 3-bet from the SB. So SB check, pot 19.5BB. Action to Hero?

Pre-Flop (2.5BB)
Hero (80BB) opens for 2.5BB
CO (30BB) Calls
SB (85BB) Calls

Flop (9.5BB)
SB (83BB) Checks/Calls
Hero (77.5BB) bets 5BB
CO (27.5BB) Folds

Turn (19.5BB)
SB (78BB) Checks
Hero (72.5BB) ?

 

[CraigT78]

I'm betting 1/2 the pot here.

 

[detroitdad]

I'm betting 1/2 the pot here.

I'm with Craig. I'm betting half pot, maybe just a touch more.

 

[Mr Tree]

15BB bet, set up the all in on the river.

 

[BGinGA]

I'm betting 1/2-pot, and expecting a raise from the SB with JJ (which is exactly how I would be playing it).

 

[Anthony Martino]

I'm with Mr Tree on this one, setup for stacks on the river

 

[Jimulacrum]

Bet about 15 BB, like Mr Tree said.

 

[JustinInMN]

View attachment 195179

15BB bet, set up the all in on the river.

I'm with Mr Tree on this one, setup for stacks on the river

As am I, I would tend to think you are usually against a flush draw or an ace here so sizing it up makes sense. If you are fortunate enough to be against two pair, sizing it up should work as well. I think 15 bb is a good size and you should have no compulsion about playing for stacks here, you won't get a better chance before the bubble.

But I am always paranoid these strategy posts have a sad ending.

 

[gopherblue]

It might have a sad ending.

 

[upNdown]

and you should have no compulsion about playing for stacks here, you won't get a better chance before the bubble.

I'm not sure you won't have a better chance in the next 90 minutes and I'm not sure it matters - why should the goal to be to play for stacks before the bubble?
I have no problem getting another 15bb in there right now. But that doesn't mean I want to play for stacks, with a set of 6's, at this point in the tournament.

 

[power13]

I'm over betting the turn. 1.5x pot so 30BB. I want to play for stacks on the river targeting 2 pair and a set of 3s, and can still decide to get away and have over 40BB left if the river is a heart, ten or queen which would be not great cards for us. If the villain turned a set that's a cooler and there are way more combos we are way ahead of who can call this bet. Betting smaller now makes it hard to get a call of a shove on the river which is like 1.75x and busted flush draws are never calling the river but might make a bad call here, particularly the ones with a gutshot or paired with the jack who have or think they have more equity than just the draw.

If we had bet bigger on the flop then the turn bet could have been just pot sized and we would have been set up similarly on the river without needing to over bet a street to get stacks in.

 

[Mr Tree]

But I am always paranoid these strategy posts have a sad ending.

That’s because strategy posts innately have adverse selection. Obviously there is going to be meat on the bone here so likely we are setting up a pivotal river decision. I still think you have to try to make the right moves at each step regardless of having an idea what the final outcome will be.

 

[JustinInMN]

I'm not sure you won't have a better chance in the next 90 minutes and I'm not sure it matters - why should the goal to be to play for stacks before the bubble?
I have no problem getting another 15bb in there right now. But that doesn't mean I want to play for stacks, with a set of 6's, at this point in the tournament.

How many chances will you have to get it all in presumptively at worst a 70-somethkng% favorite (flush draw) and possibly with the opponent drawing dead (AK, AQ)?

I'm all for passing on marginal spots in the name of survival, but I don't think we can fold our way to the bubble just yet. If we win this pot we certainly can fold our way to the bubble or be in a position to bully the shorter stacks at the bubble which is huge for chances to go deep.

 

[ChaosRock]

That’s because strategy posts innately have adverse selection. Obviously there is going to be meat on the bone...

Yep! This ^^^

That’s why I think it’s important to look at the hand as if you were in Hero’s shoes and not just assuming there’s a catch, ‘cause most of the hands in the Strategy forum will.

 

[Highli99]

That’s because strategy posts innately have adverse selection. Obviously there is going to be meat on the bone here so likely we are setting up a pivotal river decision. I still think you have to try to make the right moves at each step regardless of having an idea what the final outcome will be.

If I were to start a strategy post that said “I have UTG 10 handed what should I do?” Responses would range from “fold” to “fold, you idiot” with a smattering of suggestions to take up spelling contests.

And Yet......I continuously play with individuals who seem to raise or call in this situation. Many of these example show up as the victorious villains at the end of strategy threads.

My point is just that sometimes these outcomes are not a strategy decision but weird variance that happens when other players have -EV ranges.

 

[Mr Tree]

My point is just that sometimes these outcomes are not a strategy decision but weird variance that happens when other players have -EV ranges.

This to me is the problem in how you are thinking. One off outcomes should never determine your strategy. We are looking for winning repetitive behaviors here. The final result is just an anecdote really.

 

[upNdown]

How many chances will you have to get it all in presumptively at worst a 70-somethkng% favorite (flush draw) and possibly with the opponent drawing dead (AK, AQ)?

I'm all for passing on marginal spots in the name of survival, but I don't think we can fold our way to the bubble just yet. If we win this pot we certainly can fold our way to the bubble or be in a position to bully the shorter stacks at the bubble which is huge for chances to go deep.

I'd be surprised if anybody is getting a deep stack all in at this point in this tournament with just top pair top kicker or on a draw.
Maybe I need to get greedier, but I'd be very satisfied to win 20 or 30 bb with this hand - i have no compulsion to get my stack in at this point. It's still just a set of sixes.

 

[Highli99]

This to me is the problem in how you are thinking. One off outcomes should never determine your strategy. We are looking for winning repetitive behaviors here. The final result is just an anecdote really.

I agree with you. Process over outcomes.

 

[Steve Birrer]

3/4 pot. I am happy with a fold and fine with a call. There are several hands in Villains range that could be trouble. , , . The turn J isn't a terrible card but it isn't the best either. The good news is that some of Villains outs for the flush give Hero a boat.

 

[Mr Tree]

The one thing I don’t like is roughly a third of the deck is a scare card.



There is a good chance we are going to see a caution flag river card.

 

[ChaosRock]

The one thing I don’t like is roughly a third of the deck is a scare card.



There is a good chance we are going to see a caution flag river card.

Why is any J a scare card?