Ks8s on the button, 50NL home game (1 Viewer)

[Pokerdweebz]

This hand happened about a month ago so some facts will be wrong (but will not affect how the hand plays out). Game has gone from 10 players to 5-6 and has gotten more passive as the night has worn on, probably because hero has toned down his LAG style. I will preface the story saying I think I played the hand perfectly based on reads and the way the hand played out but I want to see what the community says.


Button - Hero ~$40 - probably the only player capable of playing LAG. Playing LAG most of the night but as the game got short handed started to play more passive and social. Was short stacked but doubled up a little while earlier with 3h7h (not misplayed).
SB - TAG. In the top 4 players in this circle of players.
BB - >$40 Passive - Middle of the road player for this game. Actually cares about playing and trying to get better.
UTG - Passive. Middle of the road player who probably thinks he is better than he is.
HJ - >$40 TAG. In the top 4 players in this circle of players. Successful player but I've never seen him pull a big bluff.
CO - Don't remember. May be non-existent and HJ was the CO. If there was actually a player no one great or terrible.

UTG - calls .50
HJ - calls .50
CO - If exists calls .50
Button - Hero limps . This should probably be a raise or a fold, but the way the game was going I felt comfortable being able to win the hand post flop depending on board texture and run out. Hero has never been seen limping monsters.
SB - completes
BB - checks

Flop ($2.50-3):
SB - check
BB - leads for $1.75
UTG - fold
HJ - call $1.75
CO - if exists folds
Button - Hero? BB would not lead without anything worse than T9+ probably with a spade. HJ could flat with a wide variety of hands and is very comfortable with his game.

 

[detroitdad]

6 bucks in the pot I believe. I bet in the 4 to 5 dollar range.

 

[thorwilliam]

Raise, if someone has flopped a lower flush, a set, two pair or has the ace of spades, you will probably win more by building the pot now. A spade on the turn might kill the action and if a brick falls you look much stronger if you call flop and then raise turn than if you just raise the flop.

 

[detroitdad]

Raise, if someone has flopped a lower flush, a set, two pair or has the ace of spades, you will probably win more by building the pot now. A spade on the turn might kill the action and if a brick falls you look much stronger if you call flop and then raise turn than if you just raise the flop.

What I implied lol

 

[jbutler]

Basically agree with @thorwilliam. Amount depends on how far along BB is into "trying to get better". If he'll 3-bet a min-ish raise, I'd make it $4-5. If he'll go into call down mode with what he thinks is a good made hand, I'd make it more, but again, amount depends on how good/bad he is. Maybe default to $10 if you expect him to just call/call/call.

If HJ backraises over your raise I think you might have an interesting spot depending on his tendencies.

 

[DrStrange]

$2.75 from preflop plus 3 x $1.75 (after hero catches up with the bet) = $8 in the pot.

I raise $6 on top or $7.75 all day. Hero's LAG table image will pay dividends here. Let's get money in the pot before it gets wetter and charge spade draws full price.

Hero is pot committed on the flop.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

Basically agree with @thorwilliam. Amount depends on how far along BB is into "trying to get better". If he'll 3-bet a min-ish raise, I'd make it $4-5. If he'll go into call down mode with what he thinks is a good made hand, I'd make it more, but again, amount depends on how good/bad he is. Maybe default to $10 if you expect him to just call/call/call.

If HJ backraises over your raise I think you might have an interesting spot depending on his tendencies.

BB would literally only 3 bet AsXs or 99 so I'm not that worried about that coming. He's gotten better. I would foresee him folding X9 (no club) and calling X9 (with club)+. BB tends to give me a lot of respect with my raises (which happens often when he bets).

Based on my knowledge of HJ's tendencies if he was planning to raise at any point on the flop he would have raised BB's bet. I don't fear him getting out of line and raising me if I raise.

 

[jbutler]

BB would literally only 3 bet AsXs or 99 so I'm not that worried about that coming. He's gotten better. I would foresee him folding X9 (no club) and calling X9 (with club)+. BB tends to give me a lot of respect with my raises (which happens often when he bets).

Based on my knowledge of HJ's tendencies if he was planning to raise at any point on the flop he would have raised BB's bet. I don't fear him getting out of line and raising me if I raise.

Then I definitely concur with Doc above. Prob best to default to that sizing to get calls from all his top pair hands.

 

[kirchhausen]

I make it $8.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

Hero had the same thought process as everyone here and raises to $5.50. I should also mention these players typically have terrible bet sizings so $5.50 here is on the semi large/standard size.

SB folds
BB pauses, gives me the look he always give me when I raise his bet (whether he is calling or folding), then folds.
HJ thinks for a very short amount of time and semi-quickly calls (2-4 seconds)

Turn (~$15.75)

HJ quickly and fairly confidently leads out for $8. HJ is never checking river if we elect to flat.
Hero?

 

[DrStrange]

Hero should be looking for as cheap a showdown as possible now. If Hero raises, villain will becomes polarized between the nut flush and everything else. There would be times I would undertake an acting job where I almost fold before {sigh}/calling hoping to influence villain be sizing, but I'd need to know my target very well since that could backfire . . .

 

[thorwilliam]

I think your raise on flop should have been bigger. Might have defined his hand a bit more. Does he usually take a passive line with his big draws? Slowplaying flopped monsters? Turn hands with sdv into bluffs? He is described as a TAG but does he limp ace-rag type hands?
His line looks like the nuts to me, might fold here if he always fires river if we just call.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

I think your raise on flop should have been bigger. Might have defined his hand a bit more. Does he usually take a passive line with his big draws? Slowplaying flopped monsters? Turn hands with sdv into bluffs? He is described as a TAG but does he limp ace-rag type hands?
His line looks like the nuts to me, might fold here if he always fires river if we just call.

I agree my raise on the flop could have been a little larger, but it was pretty standard for the table especially with it getting more passive as the night went on. I'll give my full analysis based on my reads of him when the hand is revealed. I will say that as the table became more limp heavy he would be likely to limp medium strength hands.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

Doesn't look like I'm going to get any more replies. I found this spot to be incredibly interesting at the time. The instant HJ bet I almost immediately thought the only hand that he would play this way is AsX(s or no s). Based on HJ's tendencies when playing against thinking players I think he is bluffing here <5% of the time. I don't think he would bet Qs in this spot and would C/C and C/decide river.

I came to this conclusion due to HJ flatting BB's bet. This is definitely the most important event in the hand for this analysis. HJ's range preflop is basically all medium strength hands. This probably includes 22-77, 56s-JQs, 79s-TQs, K9, KT, KT, KJo, QJo, A2-A8(maybe A9). That is a very quick estimation off the top of my head so hands might be missing. Most of those hands fold to BB's bet. The only hands that he continues with (raise or flat) are 33, 55, XsXs, AsX. Of those hands I think he is raising 33, 55, XsXs, As9x, As5x, As3x, Q. I feel he is sooooooo unbalanced in this spot. I honestly only think he is flatting AsX hands that don't have a pair or AsXs.

Another important event is when he doesn't tank long before calling my raise. What hands would not even think here? In my opinion all AsX hands that he is just calling (since I didn't raise large enough) to hit a spade on the turn. He would tank with almost any other hand here.

This becomes even more true when he leads out on the turn. Even if he somehow slow played his set or low flush I feel that he is almost never turning them into a bluff, especially against a thinking player. I think he turns 33, 55, or a terrible flush into a bluff <5% of the time like I said earlier. It's probably closer to never.

I run this analysis through my head for about a minute and come to the same conclusion every single time. He has As here basically always. I smirk at him and flip over my hand while throwing it into the muck. Everyone kind of pauses for a second and looks at me funny until HJ exclaims 'DAMNNNN I should have let you bet it!". He does not reveal his hand, but scoops the pot and mucks. I'm honestly checking back the turn most of the time if he checks due to the above analysis, but I wasn't going to tell him that.

This is the second time I've found a semi-hero fold against this villain and both times he told me he had it. I don't think he is the type of player that would lie to me. While he is competitive the game overall is very friendly and open. I show a lot of hands and everyone knows I would never ever ever ever ever lie to them. While he could be playing some sick leveling war into trying to make me semi hero-fold more, I don't think it's happening.

 

[DrStrange]

It is almost never right to show a big fold unless you have something very specific in mind for your metagame.

 

[Chippy McChiperson]

Maybe he keeps telling you he had it to positively reinforce you folding the second nuts.

 

[stocky]

Fold pre.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

It is almost never right to show a big fold unless you have something very specific in mind for your metagame.

There is no real meta game. It's a very friendly group of guys who mostly don't try to improve and I know none of them took a note of that more than 15 seconds. Maybe HJ but I don't think even if he did note it that he's ever good enough to exploit that. I could honestly show every hand and they wouldn't do anything about it. If this were a casino or serious home game of course I wouldn't show without an ulterior motive.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

Fold pre.

Agree. Mentioned in OP.

 

[Pokerdweebz]

Maybe he keeps telling you he had it to positively reinforce you folding the second nuts.

It's a very very friendly game and no one is playing for the sole purpose of soul crushing people and making every quarter possible. He's ridiculously well off (lives in a mansion with a very high position in a multi national company) and doesn't seem like that kind of person. Even so this situation will probably never come up again in our poker lifetime together so that's quite a long con.