One last PLO8 hand from the Rumble in the Rockies (1 Viewer)

[DrStrange]

*** And now??? ***

Hero checks. Local regular, Mr. $30/$60, bets $10. SB and BB fold.

Action on Hero. Fold, raise or call?

DrStrange

 

[Rhodeman77]

Call and evaluate the turn.

 

[ushallnotraise]

Fold. You're only comfortably drawing to 9 outs, along with a backdoor lo draw that may not even be good.

You're getting 2.2:1 on your money but it's not good enough odds to call.

Edit: math

 

[Ronoh]

Fold. You're only comfortably drawing to 6 outs, along with a backdoor lo draw that may not even be good.

There are nine cards that give us the nut, seven of them kill the low.

 

[kirchhausen]

Fun Equity = Actual Equity + Fold Equity +

Isn't that how Michael Hutchence died?

 

[DrStrange]

*** The turn ***

Hero calls. Going to the turn heads-up with $32 in the pot. Hero holds

Flop is: < > Action on Hero. Check or bet? If betting, how much?

 

[ushallnotraise]

As played, check. You're heads up in a pot that, at best, you're chopping IF you make your lo on the river. You've made no lo, yet, and while a 4 gives you a wheel there are 3 hearts on the board so you can still be losing the hi very easily.

 

[Ben]

Check-fold. Against many players this would be a good spot to semi-bluff; not so much this guy I don't think.

 

[Jimulacrum]

Check with the intention of folding to any reasonable bet.

Even if we catch our straight on the end, we can't stand much action. We're probably not winning anything more than what's in the pot. Our high is essentially a straight draw that may be dead already, and we can't win the high if we hit our low. The only card that makes our high and a low makes a low we can't have. This hand was just barely playable on the flop. Now it's no good at all.

 

[tigon]

This is a great spot to lead if the opponent sees you as someone who's rarely messing around. His flop bet could easily just be a cbet with a random A2XX or a protection bet with AAXX or like AJJ2, 2 pairs, sets. If you bet like 15 or 20 and he calls the pot is 60-70 with him having 55-50 behind. Pretty scary spot for him if he actually thinks beyond the current street. The value of occasionally taking down the pot along with getting to the river makes a bet worthwhile.

Plus f you hit your low on the river you jam and take the whole pot a decent amount of the time. If you hit your straight most players will check back with all flushes given the action and stack sizes except AXhh and QXhh.

Checking is fine too. The worst play would be to bet like full pot, since that gets through almost the same amount as betting half pot would.

 

[DrStrange]

*** and now the river ***

Hero checks as does villain. Heads-up at the river with $32 in the pot. Hero holds

River is: < > Action on Hero. Check or bet? If betting, how much?

 

[Rhodeman77]

I think I check fold here, he likely had a high only hand, set, or 2 pair. He likely wasn't betting a flush draw since he checked behind on the turn.

That card helps his flop betting range for sure. With no low possible he is calling any bet for sure. He likely filled up or has aces up now and won't be folding.

 

[Jimulacrum]

I agree with @Rhodeman77. This is a way less than optimal bluffing situation. We'd basically have to hope that Villain's flop bet was either with pure air (and he missed the 2) or with a wrap like ours that completely whiffed. If it was anything else, we're getting snapped off at a minimum.

Though it's tempting to bet because we have almost no showdown value, I don't think we can successfully bluff Villain off of almost anything he bet on the flop that we don't already have beat with best kickers.

 

[ushallnotraise]

C/f

 

[DrStrange]

*** Almost done ***

Hero checks. Villain bets $15 in the $32 pot. Action on Hero, fold, call or raise? If raising, how much?

 

[ushallnotraise]

Fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold fold.

Fold.


You should fold.


Hey
....
Fold.

 

[DrStrange]

How do you range villain by the time we get to the river?

 

[Rhodeman77]

K 10, A K, AA, lots of 2 pair hands with a few full houses as well. I think he would have bet the flush if he had it and would have expected you to bet it if you had it.

He could also have a busted wrap that has a K or even just a pair of 2's if he has A2xx. That would be abou the only had you could get him to fold if you raise.

He has show he is more talk than skill, fold and get him in a better spot.

 

[kirchhausen]

If I'm reading this right, there is no low and you only have A-high as a high? I don;t see how you can do anything but fold.

 

[T_Chan]

From previous hands, villain has had a propensity to fold to bets or raises from what he perceives to be tight players. I would not be surprised if he folded his hand to a raise claiming he had the 3rd nuts or something like that. With Hero's tight image, he could be perceived as slow rolling a monster. Not sure if it's worth the risk though.

 

[Ben]

This is a snap-fold - a c/r is not credible and we don't even have enough behind to repot. If you're ever thinking of hero-calling with A-high in omaha, don't. I would posit that villain does not have kings full, tens full, or an ace-high flush, but just about anything else is possible. He can have plenty of hands that will probably be snap-calling a check-raise - K5, 52, medium flushes, and may call even lighter than that.

 

[DrStrange]

*** Well Hero isn't doing what people are suggesting ***

Hero check raises to $50 - that would be a $35 raise into a $62 pot. Villain offers a short speech about having the nut flush, but he knows when he is beaten and folds. {not buying a word of that.} I'd rate villain's demeanor as a vague sneering contempt.

Here is Hero's thinking during and about the hand.

Hero's Preflop is a donkey play. Hero should fold for $0.50 and fold to the raise. This was an impulsive act hoping to be the one to stack the local. I know several of us were chopping at the bit to get a shot. But hero has a hand that often makes a second best low plus only a modest shot at the high in weak position. Those cards belong in the muck.

The flop bet sizing by villain raised an alarm in Hero's mind. That might have been the only time anyone bet less than pot so early in the hand. It seems a lot like a hold'em sized c-bet with A2xx or maybe AAxx rather than a strong drawing hand. Even so, Hero was primed to fold until everyone else folded first. Hero makes the call already thinking his hand could be turned into a bluff.

The turn brings Hero a nut low draw, but it also makes the flush. Hero would likely fold to a pot sized bet. But that doesn't happen, villain checks behind. I know this villain likes to bet, the fact he doesn't bet the turn makes me restrict his holdings to some extent. There is some evidence villain might not be very comfortable playing Omaha, so I expect him to bet on the turn with "good" hold'em hands that aren't as good Omaha hands.

The river is a brick for Hero and often a brink for villain. Hero elects to give villain a chance to bluff knowing that he is often trying a steal here and that Hero's table image (to villain) is well suited to making a move. Villain's bet sizing seemed weak at the time but in hindsight it could have been going for a thin value bet. Hero feels that the river bet is polarizing for villain. I expected a free showdown if villain has a medium strength hand.

A lot of Hero's thinking in the hand is focused on Hero's relationship with this villain. He has come close to saying what he thinks of Hero's playing style several times and his table talk is consistent in holding a hero as a weak-tight old man, coffee style player.

My primary range for villain is a pair of two or something not much better, something like A2xx.

 

[bergs]

Villain could've had a low draw or a made flush. If he's skilled, check-raise should get him off his hand now that a qualifying low didn't come in. This is a play that can make in high/low games when the low bricks and the board pairs. It's ultra high variance, but it works if the villain is an experienced player and can make big(ish) lay downs.